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August 22, 2019

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High rural turnout boosts GOP numbers, makes Amodei near-lock for victory

And I use the word "near" almost facetiously.

The final numbers tallied by the secretary of state (minus a handful of votes in the rurals) show the GOP crushed the Democrats in early and mail voting in that special House election for the congressional seat formerly held by Sen. Dean Heller. The 53 percent to 34 percent advantage is overwhelming -- well above the 43-35 edge the Republicans have in the district. So the Democrats are just under their registration numbers and the Republicans are well above theirs.

That spells a four-letter word for Democratic Treasurer Kate Marshall -- d-o-o-m.

GOP Chairman Mark Amodei must not only feel good about the raw numbers -- even if he were to lose the majority of independents and other parties, he only needs normal party loyalty voting to win handily. Republicans won all 17 counties and in Washoe and Clark, turned out in disproportionate numbers to their registration. And if anyone wondered whether the Democrats even bothered to turn on the formidable turnout machine that helped save Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, consider: In both urban counties, registration is about even but Democrats lost by 17 percentage points in Clark and 11 percentage points in Washoe.

Turnout in red, red rural Nevada also was well above its registration numbers in CD2, while Washoe and Clark overall were down. Those numbers:

Washoe -- registration=54 percent; turnout share=50 percent

Clark -- registration=8.5 percent; turnout share=4 percent

Rurals -- registration=37.5 percent; turnout share=46 percent

I bet a lot of four-letter words are emanating these days from Marshall HQ and among Democrats here and in DC.

The only question now is how many folks will turn out on Tuesday -- 19 percent turnout already and it's likely to be less on Election Day -- and how large Amodei's margin will be.

Here are all the final numbers

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