Sam Morris / Las Vegas Sun
UNLV forward Khem Birch defends a shot by San Diego State forward Skylar Spencer during their Mountain West Conference game Wednesday, March 5, 2014 at the Thomas & Mack Center.
Wednesday, March 12, 2014 | 2 a.m.
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Oddsmakers provoked some perplexed reactions around town when they released the line on UNLV winning the Mountain West Conference Tournament earlier this week.
The LVH Superbook tagged the Rebels at 3-to-1 — just slightly behind San Diego State and New Mexico at 2-to-1 each — to win this week’s event at the Thomas & Mack Center. Several fans weren’t buying it, not with a team that’s embroiled in injuries, soap operas and losing streaks.
Sports books had to be overvaluing the home team, right? Well, that feels like a stretch in a season where they’ve actually underrated the Rebels on the whole.
Bet most UNLV fans wouldn’t guess that, despite the disappointing season, the Rebels have the best against-the-spread record in the conference. UNLV is 19-12 versus the number.
Based on recent history, by the way, a 3-to-1 price to win the Mountain West tournament isn’t a bad place to start. Last season, New Mexico became the first top seed to win the tournament in seven years, but it extended the streak of the pre-tournament favorite failing to cut down the nets.
New Mexico was 2-to-1 going into the 2013 Mountain West tournament, just behind UNLV at plus-150 (risking $1 to win $1.50).
The tournament played to form other than New Mexico’s upset in the championship, as the favorites won straight up in each of the seven games in the first two rounds and covered in six of them.
The event down the street at the MGM Grand Garden Arena made up for the predictability. In its first year in Las Vegas, the Pac-12 Tournament was wild with four outright upsets in 11 games and a 6-4-1 against-the-spread record for underdogs.
It was topped off by Oregon overcoming 6-to-1 opening odds to win the tournament. That was one of three bets out of seven from this space that cashed, as this same post from exactly a year ago produced a 300 percent return on investment.
Talk about setting the bar high, but nonetheless, I’m back to take another leap.
Future odds aren’t typically the most profitable wager. Finding an attractive underdog, betting them on the money line every game of a tournament and rolling over the winnings typically yields a bigger payout. But for the sake of this exercise, I’ve bolded the odds I think I have the most value in each of the nine major conference tournaments.
American Athletic Tournament
No. 2 seed Louisville — minus-130
No. 1 seed Cincinnati — plus-400
No. 5 seed Memphis — plus-450
No. 3 seed SMU — plus-500
No. 4 seed UConn — plus-1200
No. 6 seed Houston — plus-6000
Field — plus-2500
ACC Tournament
No. 3 seed Duke — plus-150
No. 1 seed Virginia — plus-400
No. 2 seed Syracuse — plus-450
No. 4 seed North Carolina — plus-700
No. 5 seed Pittsburgh — plus-1000
No. 6 seed Clemson — plus-4000
No. 7 seed North Carolina State — plus-4000
No. 8 seed Maryland — plus-4000
No. 9 seed Florida State — plus-4000
Field — plus-500
Atlantic 10 Tournament
No. 2 seed Virginia Commonwealth — plus-175
No. 1 seed Saint Louis — plus-250
No. 3 seed George Washington — plus-800
No. 4 seed Saint Joseph’s — plus-800
No. 5 seed Dayton — plus-800
No. 6 seed UMass — plus-800
Field — plus-500
Big East Tournament
No. 1 seed Villanova — plus-150
No. 2 seed Creighton — plus-175
No. 5 seed Saint John’s — plus-600
No. 3 seed Xavier — plus-1000
No. 4 seed Providence — plus-1200
No. 6 seed Marquette — plus-1200
Field — plus-800
Big Ten Tournament
No. 1 seed Michigan — plus-350
No. 3 seed Michigan State — plus-350
No. 2 seed Wisconsin — plus-400
No. 5 seed Ohio State — plus-450
No. 6 seed Iowa — plus-450
No. 4 seed Nebraska — plus-1500
No. 7 seed Minnesota — plus-2000
No. 8 seed Indiana — plus-2500
No. 9 seed Illinois — plus-2500
No. 10 seed Penn State — plus-3000
No. 12 seed Purdue — plus-6000
No. 11 seed Northwestern — plus-1000
Big 12 Tournament
No. 1 seed Kansas — plus-200
No. 4 seed Iowa State — plus-400
No. 8 seed Oklahoma State — plus-400
No. 7 seed Baylor — plus-500
No. 2 seed Oklahoma — plus-600
No. 3 seed Texas — plus-800
No. 6 seed West Virginia — plus-1800
No. 5 seed Kansas State — plus-2500
No. 9 seed Texas Tech — plus-7500
No. 10 TCU — plus-2000
Mountain West Tournament
No. 1 seed San Diego State — plus-200
No. 2 seed New Mexico — plus-200
No. 4 seed UNLV — plus-300
No. 6 seed Boise State — plus-700
No. 3 seed UNR — plus-1500
No. 5 seed Wyoming — plus-6000
Field — plus-600
Pac-12 Tournament
No. 1 seed Arizona — minus-110
No. 2 seed UCLA — plus-450
No. 7 seed Oregon — plus-700
No. 3 seed Arizona State — plus-1000
No. 6 seed Stanford — plus-1000
No. 4 seed California — plus-1200
No. 5 seed Colorado — plus-1500
No. 8 seed Washington — plus-4000
No. 10 seed Oregon State — plus-7500
No. 11 seed Washington State — plus-20000
No. 12 seed USC — plus-20000
SEC Tournament
No. 1 seed Florida — minus-125
No. 2 seed Kentucky — plus-400
No. 4 seed Tennessee — plus-500
No. 5 seed Arkansas — plus-1500
No. 3 seed Georgia — plus-2000
No. 6 seed Ole Miss — plus-2500
No. 8 seed Missouri — plus-2500
No. 7 seed LSU — plus-3000
No. 10 seed Alabama — plus-4000
No. 9 seed Texas A&M — plus-10000
Field — plus-1200
Big Sky Tournament
No. 1 seed Weber State — minus-145
No. 4 seed Montana — plus-700
No. 6 seed Northern Colorado — plus-800
No. 2 seed North Dakota — plus-1200
Field — plus-225
Big West Tournament
No. 1 seed UC Irvine — plus-175
No. 2 seed UC Santa Barbara — plus-175
No. 3 seed Long Beach State — plus-450
No. 4 seed Hawaii — plus-450
No. 5 seed Cal State Northridge — plus-2000
No. 6 seed Cal State Fullerton — plus-2000
No. 7 seed Cal Poly — plus-2000
No. 8 seed Cal Riverside — plus-4000
Southland Tournament
No. 1 seed Stephen F. Austin — minus-200
No. 2 seed Texas A&M Corpus Christi — plus-600
Field — plus-225
Sun Belt Tournament
No. 1 seed Georgia State — minus-120
No. 3 seed Louisiana-Lafayette — plus-300
No. 2 seed Western Kentucky — plus-400
No. 4 seed Arkansas State — plus-600
Field — plus-800
WAC Tournament
No. 2 seed New Mexico State — minus-300
No. 1 seed Utah Valley State — plus-600
No. 6 seed Cal Bakersfield — plus-700
No. 5 seed Idaho — plus-800
No. 7 seed Seattle — plus-1800
No. 4 seed UMKC — plus-2500
No. 3 seed Chicago State — plus-5000
No. 8 seed Texas Pan-American — plus-6000
Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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