Week 9 game of the week and picks for the Sun’s handicapping contest

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, Nov. 8, 2015 | 2 a.m.

The NFC Super Bowl favorite will emerge Sunday afternoon at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

The hometown Panthers take on the Green Bay Packers in a matchup of teams currently at the top of the NFC futures board at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. Unlike the AFC where there’s a prohibitive top choice in New England at odds of minus-120 (risking $1.20 to win $1), the distinction is more up for debate in the NFC.

But together Green Bay, currently offered at plus-175 (risking $1 to win $1.75), and Carolina, plus-450, combine for a 42 percent probability of reaching Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on Feb. 7 2016, according to the odds. The numbers will likely fluctuate with the result of Sunday’s game, where the Packers lay 2.5 points on the spread.

It’s the game of the week in the Sun’s handicapping contest, meaning the three competing sportswriters must use one of their six weekly wagers off of the South Point betting board on Green Bay at Carolina. Full picks are available at the bottom of the page.

Both teams stand at 5-2 against the spread on the season — behind only Minnesota’s 6-1 for best in the NFC — so it would make sense if bettors were split on which side to back. They’re not.

Green Bay has drawn enough support to push the spread to as high as minus-3 from an opener as low minus-1.5. The situation is not all that different from last week when the Packers went off as a 3-point favorite on the road against the Broncos on Sunday Night Football.

Gamblers are undeterred in loading up on Green Bay again despite it showing no promise of ever covering in a 29-10 loss where Denver held quarterback Aaron Rodgers to a career-low 77 passing yards.

Carolina didn’t treat the betting public any better in last week’s other primetime game, hosting Indianapolis on Monday Night Football. The Panthers, which joined the Packers in a group of five teams that drew more than 75 percent of the tickets printed on their given week 8 games at William Hill sports books, were maddening in another way.

Carolina was covering the minus-5 closing spread eight minutes into the game and had a 17-point lead with less than 10 minutes to play but allowed an Indianapolis rally to push the game into overtime. It was little solace to their backers, but the Panthers ultimately won 29-26 to remain the NFC’s only unbeaten team.

It was their 12th straight regular season victory, with exactly half of them coming by a touchdown or less. Carolina would appear well equipped to extend the streak based on what Denver did to Green Bay last week.

The Panthers are second to only the Broncos in pass defense by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings with cornerback Josh Norman one of the NFL’s newest shutdown cornerbacks. Norman makes quarterbacks pay for targeting him, ranking second in the league with 12 passes defensed and four interceptions.

Defensive tackle Kawann Short is the less mentioned new standout on the Carolina defense, as the third-year pro has five sacks to lead a pass rush that sits alongside Denver in the top 10 for quarterback hurries.

Rodgers has done well dealing with pressure throughout his career, but if last week’s problems resurface, the Packers may want to employ a run-heavier attack. It’s one area where Carolina is vulnerable, as it gives up 4.2 yards per carry to rate 20th in the NFL. Green Bay sits sixth in gaining 4.5 yards per carry, but through no help by starter Eddie Lacy, who’s slogged to a total of 298 yards and two touchdowns.

Lacy joins a list of struggling skill players for the Packers, who haven’t overcome No. 1 receiver Jordy Nelson’s preseason ACL injury. Nelson’s presumed replacements Randall Cobb and Davante Adams have gotten banged-up themselves and tallied only one 100-yard game between the two of them.

Carolina’s receiving situation after losing its top receiver to an ACL tear in the preseason, Kelvin Benjamin, is even more of a debacle. Tedd Ginn Jr.’s drop of a sure game-winning touchdown pass in overtime against Indianapolis summed up the problem.

Ginn has played as the Panthers’ most efficient wide receiver, per DVOA, and he’s still 58th overall in the NFL.

The Panthers and Packers have their weaknesses, but they might be the best the NFC has to offer — and it’s not only sports books suggesting as much. Football Outsiders’ potential special Super Bowl matchups are led by Green Bay vs. New England with an 11.8 percent probability and Carolina vs. New England is close behind at 10.8 percent.

Having the Patriots’ two most likely opponents meet feels like the right way to start the second half of the season.

Check below for all of the week 9 contest picks. Games are listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

Case Keefer (2012 & 2014 champion, 2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 27-19-2 (4-2 last week)

Steelers minus-4.5 vs. Raiders

Rams plus-2 at Vikings

Bills minus-2.5 vs. Dophins

Titans plus-8 at Saints

Panthers plus-2.5 vs. Packers

Buccaneers plus-2.5 vs. Giants

Taylor Bern

2015 Record: 22-23-3 (4-2 last week)

Raiders plus-4.5 at Steelers

Packers minus-2.5 at Panthers

Falcons minus-7 at 49ers

Buccaneers plus-2.5 vs. Giants

Patriots minus-14 vs. Redskins

Eagles minus-3 at Cowboys

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 18-27-3 (2-4 last week)

Rams plus-2 at Vikings

Bills minus-2.5 vs. Dolphins

Packers minus-2.5 at Panthers

Giants minus-2.5 at Buccaneers

Colts plus-5 vs. Broncos

Chargers minus-4 vs. Bears

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.