Vegas pick’ em: NFL Week 11 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Thursday, Nov. 19, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Updated Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015 | 1:04 a.m.

One of the wildest weeks of all-time in the NFL was a big winner for the sports books.

Week 10 of the 2015 season won’t soon be forgotten, especially not by those setting the odds. Underdogs went 11-3 straight-up, 12-2 against the spread to ensure the bookmakers beat up on the bettors.

No double-digit underdogs had won outright all season, but both on the board managed the feat last week. Green Bay giving 11 points to Detroit was the most popular bet on the board at William Hill sports books, but the Lions escaped Lambeau Field with an 18-16 victory.

It was likely the house’s biggest windfall, knocking out scores of parlays and teasers, until Monday Night Football. The Texans may have managed to one-up the Lions by ruining the Bengals’ perfect record with a 10-6 victory as 10-point underdogs in a primetime game, which always draw the largest volume.

Talking Points hopes to help bettors recover from the money massacre by continuing a successful season. The blog is now 78-62-6 picking every game against the spread for the season, though the top plays have regretfully taken a step back the last two weeks.

Check below for week 11 picks, separated as always into three separate confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas.

Plays (21-14-2)

Denver Broncos plus-1.5 at Chicago Bears Time to jump on the Broncos with the knowledge that Brock Osweiler can’t perform any worse than Peyton Manning, who’s last in the league among active quarterbacks in passer rating this season. Denver gets back cornerback Aqib Talib and could return defensive end DeMarcus Ware to a unit that’s bordered on historic dominance by giving up 4.3 yards per play, the fewest in the NFL over the last seven seasons.

Atlanta Falcons minus-6 vs. Indianapolis Colts Let’s stop overstating the effectiveness of Indianapolis fill-in quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, who threw for a mediocre 6.5 yards per pass attempt in victories over Jacksonville and Houston by a combined 10 points. Even at full strength, Atlanta has both the better offense — gaining 5.8 yards per play to Indianapolis’ 5.2 — and the better defense — giving up 5.5 yards per play to Indianapolis’ 5.8.

Cincinnati Bengals plus-5 at Arizona Cardinals Betting market reacted too drastically to the Bengals’ Monday Night Football loss, raising the spread two points. The lopsided support dangerously ignores that the Cardinals are coming off of a physical and emotional win in Seattle and only marginally more efficient than the Bengals on the season, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings.

San Diego Chargers plus-3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs The Chargers were among the most beat-up teams in the league, and should get a legion of players back off of the injury report after a bye week. The Chiefs’ five-game losing streak straight-up and against the spread that stretched into last month counts as much as their current three consecutive covers and wins.

Leans (27-20-3)

Dallas Cowboys pick’em at Miami Dolphins Tony Romo gets to face the perfect defense in his first game back from injury as the Dolphins rate 26th in the NFL against the pass per DVOA. They’re also worst in the league against No. 1 receivers, which gives a strong forecast for the Romo-to-Bryant connection.

New York Jets minus-2 at Houston Texans Supreme value on the Jets at this number if T.J. Yates is forced to start at quarterback for the Texans, and far from a death knell even if Brian Hoyer passes the concussion protocol to play. Jets defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson, who has seven sacks to go with countless quarterbacks hits and hurries, has played well enough to merit defensive player of the year consideration.

Philadelphia Eagles minus-5.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers The only time Tampa Bay faced a defense as stout as Philadelphia’s, which ranks second in DVOA, it trailed 17-3 within 20 minutes and committed a total of five turnovers in a 37-23 loss to Carolina as 3-point underdogs. Based on their plus-28 point differential, the Eagles are unlucky to be sitting with a 4-5 straight-up record.

Seattle Seahawks minus-12.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers Seattle’s offense showed signs of life in gaining just less than 7 yards per play in last week’s 39-32 loss to the Cardinals as 3-point favorites. Laying double digits is always dicey, but the Seahawks are 7-5-1 against the spread in the role under coach Pete Carroll.

Guesses (30-28)

New England Patriots minus-7 vs. Buffalo Bills Julian Edelman joining the lengthy list of injured Patriots is impactful, but not enough to swing the line 2.5 points towards the Bills from where it sat last week. Expect a healthy dose of LeGarrette Blount with Buffalo’s rush defense regressing by surrendering 4.5 yards per carry over the last three games.

Tennessee Titans plus-3 at Jacksonville Jaguars Seeing Jacksonville not only lay points but receive the bulk of the action feels like a sign of the sports-book apocalypse. The Jaguars were only 1.5-point favorites over the Titans on the early line last week, and don’t deserve the boost to a field goal after a miracle win that included the Ravens outgaining them by more than 100 yards.

Green Bay Packers plus-1 at Minnesota Vikings Statistically speaking, these teams look equal with Green Bay gaining 5.5 yards per play and giving up 5.6 yards per play to Minnesota’s averages of 5.3 and 5.4, respectively. But the competition level must be accounted for, as the Vikings have faced the second easiest schedule in the NFL so far per Football Outsiders.

Oakland Raiders minus-1.5 at Detroit Lions One upset victory of the Packers doesn’t absolve the Lions of their multitude of problems, including a pass defense that’s giving up 7.6 yards per attempt and a point differential of minus-94. Detroit has yet to cover a spread at home this season.

St. Louis Rams plus-2.5 at Baltimore Ravens In a game between evenly-matched opponents — Baltimore is No. 16 in DVOA to St. Louis’ No. 17 — the team with clear motivational edge gets the nod. St. Louis remains alive in the playoff race at 4-5 straight-up, while Baltimore is all but eliminated at 2-7.

Carolina Panthers minus-7 vs. Washington Redskins The Panthers are two shaky endgame performances away from having an undefeated against the spread record to match their 9-0 straight-up. Can no longer feel comfortable advising to bet against them without an inflated point spread.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.