Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 4 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Oct. 1, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Sports book directors likely tried organizing a support group over the last few days since the conclusion of week 3 in the NFL. Talking Points is begging for an invitation.

The blog spent last Sunday the same way as the bookmakers — waiting for a savior that never came. Sports books watched in horror as five of the six biggest favorites of the week covered to go with the two most popularly bet underdogs, the Buffalo Bills and Oakland Raiders, winning outright.

It was one of the worst NFL weeks in recent memory for casinos, but it was the worst of all-time for the pick’em series. The blog went 4-12 against the spread to bring the season record to 21-26-1.

Luckily, it’s early and only a minor bump to the goal of anything above 50 percent given the difficulty of forcing a play on every game. And the two wins were our most confident of the week in the still-profitable plays section.

But there’s no hiding the fact that a historic walloping hurts — just ask teams like the Dolphins and 49ers, which were similarly embarrassed last week. The best therapy is getting back to winning, which is the focus in this space.

Read below for this week’s picks, separated as always into three categories with separate records. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas.

Plays (9-3)

Minnesota Vikings plus-7 at Denver Broncos Denver was only a 5.5-point favorite on last week’s look-ahead line, so it’s a mystery where the extra 1.5 points came from after Minnesota crushed San Diego 31-13 as 2.5-point favorites. These teams look remarkably evenly matched, so taking the extra value with the Vikings is a no-brainer.

Washington Redskins plus-3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles Problems are far from solved for Philadelphia, which is banged up and second-to-last in the NFL at gaining 4.5 yards per play. Focusing on the ground game, as Eagles coach Chip Kelly wants to do as evidenced by 39 rushing attempts last week, won’t be beneficial against a Redskins defense ranking fifth against the run by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers Not willing to lay more than a field goal on the road with a team as offensively hampered as Carolina. Tampa Bay has shown signs of improvement too, and last week’s 19-9 loss to Houston could have been different if not for three missed field goals and one failed extra point from kicker Kyle Brindza.

San Diego Chargers minus-7.5 vs. Cleveland Browns San Diego’s biggest issue of a negative turnover margin in every game, including an unlucky 33 percent fumble recovery rate, is fixable. Melvin Gordon might be poised for a breakout game against a Cleveland rushing defense allowing 4.9 yards per carry.

Leans (8-9)

St. Louis Rams plus-7 at Arizona Cardinals It’s entirely possible Arizona has faced the three worst defenses in the league — New Orleans, Chicago and San Francisco — to pad its admittedly extraordinary trio of blowouts to start the season. St. Louis’ defense is in another stratosphere even though its floundering offense is a major concern.

Pittsburgh Steelers plus-3 vs. Baltimore Ravens A 6.5-point line swing resultant of Ben Roethlisberger’s injury is a tad too severe given the value of the Steelers’ skill players, which are talented enough to raise the level even of a potentially-shot back-up like Michael Vick. Pittsburgh is 6-1-1 against the spread under coach Mike Tomlin as a home underdog.

New York Giants plus-6 at Buffalo Bills The Bills were only laying a field goal in this spot heading into the season. The Giants have 10 days to prepare after a Thursday Night Football appearance, which has served them well in the past with a 6-0 against the spread record.

New York Jets minus-1.5 vs. Miami Dolphins in London Jets impressed even in a loss last week, outgaining the Eagles by nearly 100 yards and coming close to forcing overtime despite a minus-3 turnover differential. Dolphins appear to be in the middle of a collapse, and though equipped with the talent to turn it around, they’re a stay-away until showing some signs.

Seattle Seahawks minus-9 vs. Detroit Lions Don’t let the Seahawks’ somewhat slow start obscure the fact that they’re now 32-13-1 against the spread at CenturyLink Field under coach Pete Carroll after shutting out the Bears last week. It’s a much smaller sample, but the Lions are 3-8 against the spread on the road under coach Jim Caldwell.

Guesses (4-14-1)

Cincinnati Bengals minus-3.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs The Bengals’ offense has produced strikingly more efficient offensive numbers, including 6.5 yards per play, than the Chiefs, which are sitting at 5.2 yards per play. Grab the diminished asking price, as the line is on the rise.

Green Bay Packers minus-8.5 at San Francisco 49ers A 49ers secondary giving up 9.4 yards per pass attempt, second-worst in the NFL, looks ill-equipped to take on any good quarterback — let alone the greatest one in Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers.

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-9.5 at Indianapolis Colts The Colts’ offensive line remains in disarray, which will emerge as a major issue once again versus an improved Jaguars defensive front. Although Jacksonville has only six sacks, it ranks in the NFL’s top 10 with 14 quarterback hurries through three games.

New Orleans Saints minus-4 vs. Dallas Cowboys For the second straight week, CG Technology sports books are the only shops posting a line because of Drew Brees’ uncertain status. Willing to gamble on Brees and fade Brandon Weeden, who’s now failed to cover or win in his last nine starts.

Houston Texans plus-6.5 at Atlanta Falcons No running back’s health has loomed as large this season as Arian Foster’s going into this game. Atlanta’s rush defense is shoddy, ranking 25th per DVOA, but Foster, who’s a game time decision coming back from a groin injury, is the only back on the roster talented enough to take advantage.

Chicago Bears plus-3 vs. Oakland Raiders Take a deep breath and realize although Chicago is off to a historically bad 0-3 straight-up and against the spread start, it’s faced the three highest power-rated teams in the NFC — Green Bay, Arizona and Seattle. Oakland is only laying points on the road for the second time in the last 10 seasons.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.