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March 28, 2024

Sports wagering:

Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 2 winners against the spread

Carlos Hyde

ASSOCIATED PRESS

San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde, left, scores past Minnesota Vikings’ Robert Blanton (36) during an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings in Santa Clara, Calif., Monday, Sept. 14, 2015.

Week 2: Seahawks at Packers

Which side would you take in Seahawks at Packers? (Public Consensus: 1-0 year to date)
Packers minus-3.5 — 66.7%
Seahawks plus-3.5 — 33.3%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

9/13/15: NFL Games

New York Jets running back Chris Ivory (33) runs over Cleveland Browns' Chris Kirksey for a touchdown during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 13, 2015, in East Rutherford, N.J. Launch slideshow »

NFL Opening Day in Sportsbooks

A football fan waits to make a bet during NFL opening day at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook Sunday, Sept. 13, 2015. The sports book is being renovated with LED video walls and new seating areas. Launch slideshow »

Bookmakers moaned over a catastrophic opening NFL Sunday when nine of 12 favorites covered last week to make them pay out large amounts to the gambling public.

They weren’t as audible the rest of week 1. Sports books dodged true disaster to their bottom lines with a massacre of their own benefit in primetime games.

The San Francisco 49ers’ 20-3 victory over the Minnesota Vikings in the final Monday Night Football game meant underdogs went a perfect 4-0 against the spread in week 1’s nationally televised night games, which always draw the biggest handle.

The 49ers, which had gone from a 3.5-point favorite over the summer to a 2.5-pont underdog, provided one of the most significant wins for the house. The Falcons’ 26-24 victory over the Eagles as 3-point underdogs in the first Monday Night contest and the Cowboys’ narrow 27-26 escape over the Giants to not cover the 6-point spread on Sunday Night Football were also major.

Even the Steelers, which rose from a 7- to 7.5-point underdogs, snuck in a cover against the Patriots in a 28-21 defeat.

So don’t weep for the sports books. Just plot to take their money.

Talking Points should have helped in week 1, going 8-7-1 against the spread including 4-0 in the official “plays” portion of the picks. The goal for the year is anything above .500 overall because of the unprofitability of forcing a pick on every game.

Check below for this week’s picks separated into descending categories with individual records attached. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Plays (4-0)

New York Jets plus-7 at Indianapolis Colts The Jets’ defensive front seven is every bit as malicious as that of the Bills, and their secondary is even better. So what’s to stop New York from copying its divisional rivals’ defensive approach and blitzing Andrew Luck into ineffectiveness?

Philadelphia Eagles minus-5 vs. Dallas Cowboys The image of Cowboys’ secondary, which is mostly unchanged from last year’s unit that gave up 7.3 yards per pass attempt, trying to keep up with the Eagles’ improved passing game is amusing. Dez Bryant’s injury is also far more impactful than the betting market is giving credit, especially given Dallas gaining less than 3.5 yards per carry in its first game since losing DeMarco Murray to Philadelphia.

Denver Broncos plus-3 at Kansas City Chiefs Concerns about the Broncos’ offense, which caused this line to bloat from a pick’em last week, should be outweighed by enthusiasm over their defense. Denver held Baltimore to a league-low 3 yards per play, but gets rewarded by coming in as an underdog to a team it’s beaten seven straight times.

Atlanta Falcons plus-2.5 at New York Giants Even before the Giants’ staggering ineptitude managing the clock late in a 27-26 loss against the Cowboys, their offense looked errant. Sticking to my word as the Falcons being a bet-on team for the foreseeable future.

Leans (3-3)

Cleveland Browns plus-1 vs. Tennessee Titans Browns cornerbacks Joe Haden and Tramon Williams will show Marcus Mariota isn’t yet to ready to pass Steve McNair and Warren Moon as the best quarterback in Tennessee franchise history. Even maligned Cleveland quarterback Johnny Manziel could join in on the fun against an inferior Tennessee rushing defense.

St. Louis Rams minus-3 at Washington Redskins Washington couldn’t manage to cover an even larger line, plus-4, at home last week against Miami. St. Louis is a better team than Miami this year regardless of where oddsmakers’ power ratings may currently rest.

Cincinnati Bengals minus-3 vs. San Diego Chargers Blowing out weak opposition is an overlooked hallmark of great teams and no one did it better in week 1 than the Bengals, which went out to a 33-0 lead over the Raiders before allowing two garbage-time touchdowns. Lay the field goal while it’s available, because sports books are slowly adding the .5-point hook.

New England Patriots pick’em at Buffalo Bills Bill Belichick will make use of the 10 days he’s had to prepare for Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who will face a much bigger challenge after beating up on an exploitable Colts defense in week 1. The last time the line was this short in the series was 2003.

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-6.5 vs. Miami Dolphins The Jaguars were deceptively competent in week 1, manhandling the Panthers up front on defense and outgaining them on offense. The Dolphins were covertly dreadful, needing a punt-return touchdown and well-timed turnovers to edge the Redskins.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-10 at New Orleans Saints The Saints’ week 1 defensive woes, giving up a league-high 7.5 yards per play to the Cardinals, were every bit as ominous as the Buccaneers’ offensive miscues, which included two Jameis Winston interceptions. Thus, there was little reason to add an extra field to this point spread.

Guesses (1-4-1)

Carolina Panthers minus-3 vs. Houston Texans The only thing assured in this game is ugliness, with Carolina’s sieve of offensive line taking on J.J. Watt and friends and Houston’s second-rate offense trying to move the ball on one of the NFL’s better defenses. The Panthers have been slightly undervalued at home, going 19-14 against the spread at Bank of America Stadium under coach Ron Rivera.

Baltimore Ravens minus-6 at Oakland Raiders The Raiders are already at enough of a talent deficit before getting besieged with perhaps the league’s longest list of injuries. The Ravens are basing operations out of nearby San Jose, Calif., this week, which should lessen West Coast away game issues.

San Francisco 49ers plus-6 at Pittsburgh Steelers The 49ers traveling three time zones East off a late Monday night game isn’t ideal, but the itinerary isn’t much more concerning than the Steelers’ defensive shortcomings. With the 49ers impressing in a 20-3 victory over Minnesota, the betting market may have acted prematurely in dooming them to the league’s bottom class.

Detroit Lions plus-3 at Minnesota Vikings On the flip side to the 49ers, perhaps gamblers were too quick to anoint the Vikings as contenders. They bumbled through Monday Night Football in week 1, while the Lions at least appeared formidable for a stretch of their game in going up 21-3 over the Chargers.

Chicago Bears plus-2 vs. Arizona Cardinals Not ready to abort mission of betting against the Cardinals this season after one home victory. The Bears, on the other hand, looked like a bet-on in outgaining the Packers and falling only a point short of covering in a 31-23 loss.

Seattle Seahawks plus-3.5 at Green Bay Packers Such a tight line that the Packers would be the play at the opening price of minus-3. The public projects to continue coming in so strongly on the Packers that taking a contrarian angle on the NFL’s best team over the last three years seems best.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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