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March 28, 2024

NCAA Tournament by the odds: L.V. picks and perspective of the West Region

Grayson Allen

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Duke guard Derryck Thornton (12) and Duke guard Grayson Allen (3) react as they walk to the bench for a time out during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament against Notre Dame, Thursday, March 10, 2016, in Washington.

Updated Thursday, March 17, 2016 | 8:59 a.m.

2016 West Region

Which team would you bet to win the East Region?
Oklahoma 9-to-4 — 43.4%
Oregon 2-to-1 — 24.2%
Texas A&M 5-to-1 — 16.8%
Duke 6-to-1 — 10.8%
Baylor 8-to-1 — 3.2%
Texas 8-to-1 — 1.6%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

Note: This is the third part of Talking Points’ four-part NCAA Tournament betting preview. Check out part 1 and part 2, come later for the final entry and check the bottom of the page for picks on all the West Region’s first-round games.

College basketball conspiracy theorists will cite the West Region as primary evidence supporting their cause for years to come.

Amateur sleuths have accused the NCAA Tournament selection committee of playing favorites and regularly paving Duke the easiest path to the Final Four for more than two decades. The teams surrounding the defending champion Blue Devils this year are akin to witness accounts of the 1947 Roswell crash and the tampered blood vial in “Making a Murderer.”

Those who have shut off their minds to any other explanation will proclaim the bracket the final confirmation of long-held suspicions.

Sports books not only rate the West as the weakest of the four regions in the 2016 NCAA Tournament, but quite possibly the most obnoxiously mediocre one assembled over the last several years.

A week ago before the tournament field was set, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook listed 12 teams at odds of 25-to-1 or less to win the national championship. Only two of them wound up in the West — and one was Duke, which wasn’t 25-to-1 on the merits of its season.

The Blue Devils’ odds were artificially deflated because they were the most bet-on team dating back to the beginning of the season, creating liability for the Superbook.

Even now, the West doesn’t contain any of the top five favorites to win the tournament. Only four of the 19 teams listed at 40-to-1 or less to win the title will compete in the West, the fewest of any region.

Putting too much stock into those types of numbers is dicey given the arbitrary endpoints, so let’s expand to odds of 100-to-1 or less. No team has ever overcome a larger price — though UConn was exactly 100-to-1 two years ago — to win the tournament.

That means there are 31 teams with at least a somewhat realistic shot this year. The West has a strikingly low six of them.

Not only was Duke gifted next to the longest-shot No. 5 seed, Baylor at 60-to-1, but also enters alongside a historically combustible No. 1 seed in Oregon.

Oregon sits at 15-to-1 to win the championship, tied with 2014 Wichita State as the highest odds for a top-seeded team in the last 10 years. And Wichita State’s odds that year were adjusted upwards after landing in notoriously loaded bracket.

Sports books cut Oregon’s line in half, from 30-to-1 last week, when it landed in a region as questionable as the investigative techniques of the West Memphis Police Department. It feels like such a disgrace because Duke, who everyone especially loves to hate coming off a fifth championship and 12th Final Four under coach Mike Krzyzewski last year, is so undeserving of good fortune this season.

The team is tied for the worst winning percentage of any Duke squad from the last 20 years and posted the program’s second-worst against the spread record in the span. After falling in three of their final five games and failing to cover in all of them, the Blue Devils finished 23-10 straight-up and 13-17-2 against the spread.

By comparison, last year’s team had won six more games and covered in five more ahead of the championship run. Duke never figured out how to overcome the loss of senior forward Amile Jefferson, a contributor on last year’s team, to a broken foot in December this regular season.

It spent large swaths of the season with a virtual six-man rotation. The improvement of Bishop Gorman graduate and 2015 Nevada Gatorade Player of the Year Chase Jeter means the Blue Devils will at least have seven players contributing significant minutes in the NCAA Tournament, but they’re still strapped for depth.

The scoring punch of guards Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram has Duke at No. 6 in the nation in offensive efficiency, per kenpom.com, after ranking first for part of the year. They can cover up many shortcomings, but likely not enough for Duke to become the first repeat champions since Florida in 2006 and 2007.

Just a few weeks ago, Duke would have posted as a small favorite against West overlord Oregon. That’s no longer accurate, but the shift should be a sign of caution not to get too carried away by the Ducks’ eight-game winning streak to end the season.

Click to enlarge photo

Oregon forward Dillon Brooks reacts after scoring against Washington during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in the quarterfinal round of the Pac-12 men's tournament Thursday, March 10, 2016, in Las Vegas.

But they have dazzled at times, no more than the Pac-12 Tournament championship when they beat down Utah 88-57 as a 2-point favorite on Saturday night at the MGM Grand Garden Arena. Oregon’s whole offensive arsenal was on display as it went 33-for-64 from the field and 11-for-22 from 3-point range, including four triples from Findlay Prep graduate Dillon Brooks and three by Chris Boucher. Electric freshman guard Tyler Dorsey chipped in a game-high 23 points and nine rebounds.

Concerns that kept Oregon at 100-to-1 in future odds for most of the season include a middling defense and more bad losses —Stanford, UNLV and Boise State leading the list — than are typical for a No. 1 seed.

Although the Ducks are installed as the favorite in the West at the Superbook, that’s not uniform all around town. CG Technologies is one shop with the odds flipped, having No. 2 seed Oklahoma at 2-to-1 to Oregon’s plus-225 (risking $1 to win $2.25).

Seeing which team advances farther will serve as a small case study in how much playing well going into the tournament matters. Unlike Oregon, Oklahoma isn’t marching into the postseason on a high.

The Sooners have failed to cover in their last five games and are just 7-5 straight-up, 3-9 against the spread since the start of February. But if any team can shoot out of a slump, it’s Oklahoma.

Click to enlarge photo

Oklahoma guard Buddy Hield (24) celebrates with fans after thinking he had scored the winning basket during NCAA college basketball game against West Virginia in the semifinals of the Big 12 conference men's tournament in Kansas City, Mo., Friday, March 11, 2016. Replays showed the shot was after time expired. West Virginia defeated Oklahoma 69-67.

The Sooners are second in the nation, trailing Michigan State, in shooting 42.6 percent on 3-pointers. Player of the Year candidate Buddy Hield along with fellow guards Isaiah Cousins and Jordan Woodard are all hitting at least 40 percent of their attempts.

The problem comes inside the line, where the Sooners rank in the bottom 10 of tournament teams in shooting 28 percent on 2-pointers. It’s made them hard to back on a game-by-game basis all season, as they’re 12-18 against the spread despite being the only team in the region that’s stayed among the favorites in the future odds all season.

Like a Bigfoot sighting in a largely urban area, No. 3 seed Texas A&M seems out of place in the West. The Aggies are the only contender other than Oregon with a profitable against the spread record on the year, having gone 15-12-2 versus the number.

The co-regular season SEC champions have one of the top pairs of seniors, forwards Danuel House and Jalen Jones, in the country.

Part of the reason the West is the only region where the odds, after adjusting for the house’s hold percentage, give no team better than a 25 percent chance of winning is challenging first-round matchups. Texas A&M can relate, as it’s facing off against the team that employs fastest pace in the tournament.

No. 14 seed Green Bay, Horizon Conference champions, has an average offensive possession length of 13.2 seconds, according to kepom, for the shortest in the nation.

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Baylor forward Rico Gathers (2) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Kansas in the semifinals of the Big 12 conference tournament in Kansas City, Mo., Friday, March 11, 2016.

No. 5 seed Baylor, one of the country's most physical teams with top rebounder and NFL tight end prospect Rico Gathers, received the worst of the early draws. Ivy League champion Yale, a No. 12 seed, is underseeded by sports book measures in its first NCAA Tournament appearance in 54 years.

And oddsmakers haven’t even graded the Bulldogs highly enough considering they’re 11-6-2 against the spread.

Baylor smashed West No. 6 seed Texas by 14 points twice in the last month only to get a more difficult opening opponent. That’s not to say first-year Longhorns coach Shaka Smart, 9-3 against the spread in the tournament, has a breeze with No. 11 seed Northern Iowa.

The Panthers proved themselves by knocking off North Carolina 71-65 as 6.5-point underdogs earlier in the season behind a memorable performance from star senior Wes Washpun.

Even the West’s No. 15 seed Cal-State Bakersfield has some bite, sitting No. 25 nationally in defensive efficiency. If the Sooners survive the Roadrunners, they could face another smothering defense in Smart’s old haunt Virginia Commonwealth in the second round.

VCU is the lone No. 10 seed favored over a No. 7 this year, giving 4.5 points to Oregon State. Led by Spring Valley High product Gary Payton II, the Beavers covered twice and outscored rival Oregon by three points in a pair of meetings the teams split this season.

That a No. 7 seed had that so much success against the region’s top seed speaks to the quality of the bracket. Duke’s inclusion is probably a great coincidence.

Just don’t tell that to those devoted to exposing what they see as the truth to the college basketball world.

Pick to win the West Region: Texas A&M at 5-to-1 Here’s a region to take a shot with a relative long shot. Oregon and Oklahoma are too volatile to lay a small price. And Duke is deeply flawed with its defense and depth. Texas A&M just might be the most solid team in the West.

West Region Picks Against the Spread (in order of confidence)

Note: We’ll pick every game throughout the tournament, giving analysis on every one in later rounds, even though it’s a losing long-term strategy. Last year, the blog finished 35-30-2. Check back after the First Four game for the final pick.

No. 6 seed Texas minus-4 vs. No. 11 seed Northern Iowa

No. 7 seed Oregon State plus-4.5 vs. No. 10 seed VCU

No. 15 seed Cal-State Bakersfield plus-14.5 vs. No. 2 seed Oklahoma

No. 3 seed Texas A&M minus-12.5 vs. No. 14 seed Green Bay

No. 9 seed Cincinnati minus-1.5 vs. No. 8 seed Saint Joseph’s

No. 16 seed Holy Cross plus-23 vs. No. 1 seed Oregon

No. 12 seed Yale plus-5.5 vs. No. 5 seed Baylor

No. 16 seed Southern minus-3 vs. No. 16 seed Holy Cross

No. 4 seed Duke minus-10.5 over No. 13 seed UNC-Wilmington

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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