Sports books could lose on Kentucky Derby for second consecutive year

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, May 7, 2016 | 2 a.m.

Sports bettors galloped over sports books in last year’s Kentucky Derby with longtime favorite American Pharoah prevailing to pay out a multitude of tickets.

Gamblers are positioned to kick dirt in the faces of bookmakers again this year in the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby, with post time at 3:34 this afternoon from Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Favorite Nyquist, much like American Pharoah, topped Wynn Las Vegas’ initial list in odds to win the Derby last September and attracted significant action for months.

“Having the favorite that early two years in a row is very unusual,” said Johnny Avello, executive director of Wynn Las Vegas race and sports book. “I don’t go back and look at my records but I don’t ever remember it happening.”

Nyquist opened at 35-to-1 and trimmed to 7-to-2 before Avello closed his future book at the commencement of pari-mutuel wagering on the race after Wednesday’s post draw. Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia made Nyquist, who came out with the No. 13 post, the favorite at 3-to-1 on the morning line.

The bay-colored colt named after Detroit Red Wings player Gustav Nyquist is followed by No. 11 Exaggerator at 8-to-1 and three horses at 10-to-1 — No. 3 Creator, No. 5 Gun Runner and No. 14 Mohaymen.

Exaggerator and Mohaymen join Nyquist as horses with enough bets that the Wynn stands to lose money if any of them crosses the finish line first after the mile and a quarter race.

“There’s probably seven losers out there for me in total,” said Johnny Avello. “That’s too many. You usually don’t have that many.”

Thirteen horses that Avello put odds on last September advanced to the Derby, which is the most ever. In one regard, that could have been expected after Avello set a record by offering prices on more than 300 horses.

But he doesn’t think that provides the full explanation. Avello also sees it as a case of the owners and trainers knowing how to exploit the points system implemented to get into the race three years ago.

“They can map out a plan for their horses,” Avello said. “They know what it takes to get there, so they maybe just decide to run one race here, one race there or not run until March and April but know everything can pan out.”

Nyquist and Mohaymen especially gripped horse racing fans this year, culminating with a showdown at last month’s Florida Derby. The matchup between undefeated horses was billed as East versus West, with Mohaymen hailing from New York and Nyquist starting his career in California.

Typically, local casinos get more money on the western horses. Nyquist’s own trainer Doug O’Neill cashed a 200-to-1 ticket four years ago when his horse I’ll Have Another emerged as the most recent non-favorite to win the Kentucky Derby.

But while Nyquist has an edge in tickets this year, Mohaymen leads in volume. At William Hill sports books — which offers the other major Kentucky Derby future book in town — Mohaymen drew 40 percent of the total money wagered.

Wynn would also lose more on Mohaymen than Nyquist. But Avello doesn’t anticipate that as a particularly likely scenario, using Nyquist’s convincing Florida Derby victory — Mohaymen finished fourth — as evidence.

“It feels like a race where there’s the one horse and then everyone else,” Avello said. “Nyquist is just such a good, solid horse. After him, it feels like there’s a bunch in the same category.”

Wynn’s worst-case scenario is No. 6 My Man Sam, 20-to-1 on the morning line, winning. Although My Man Sam wasn’t included among Avello’s original Kentucky Derby contenders, he was added at 100-to-1 earlier in the year and bet heavily.

The other losers for the Wynn are No. 16 Shagaf, No. 17 Mor Spirit and No. 19 Brody’s Cause.

One area where Avello doesn’t have to worry about taking a hit is on a Triple Crown winner. Wynn has taken sparse action on a proposition wager asking if any horse will win the Triple Crown at 7-to-1, and even less on Nyquist pulling off the feat at 12-to-1.

When American Pharoah became the first to accomplish the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978, the damage to local casinos was considerable. Gamblers bet American Pharoah down to 8-to-1 to win the Triple Crown before the Kentucky Derby, and many others took “yes” on the overall Triple Crown prop.

Not everything involving the Kentucky Derby in Las Vegas, therefore, is the same as last year.

“I guess there’s not many believers after it took (37 years) the last time,” Avello said. “There’s a lot of people that don’t think it’s going to happen again.”

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.