Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and perspective of title game

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ASSOCIATED PRESS

Gonzaga’s Nigel Williams-Goss (5) celebrates after the semifinals of the Final Four NCAA college basketball tournament against South Carolina, Saturday, April 1, 2017, in Glendale, Ariz. Gonzaga won 77-73.

2017 National Championship

Which side are you betting in the national championship game?
Gonzaga +2 — 61.2%
North Carolina -2 — 38.8%

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The last 11 college basketball national champions have finished off their runs in the NCAA Tournament with a winning against the spread record.

That streak will end tonight. Neither North Carolina nor Gonzaga, the two teams that meet for the title at 6:20 p.m. at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., have been profitable bets throughout March Madness.

The Bulldogs are just 1-3-1 against the spread, their only cover coming in an 83-59 victory over Xavier as 8-point favorites in the Elite Eight. The Tar Heels sit at 2-3 against the spread, having not beaten the number since a 92-80 win against Butler as 7-point favorites in the Sweet 16.

Either way, one team will become only the second champion since 2000 — joining 2005 North Carolina, which went 3-3 against the spread — to navigate through the bracket without covering in the majority of their games. The last champion to finish with a losing record versus the number was Connecticut in 1999, as the Huskies went 2-4.

It would take quite the game, or at least a classic finish, for North Carolina to win but not cover, considering the spread is a virtual pick’em. The Tar Heels have settled as a 1.5-point favorite after opening at minus-2.

Check below for Talking Points’ final pick of the NCAA Tournament. The blog has gone 37-27-2 picking every game of the tournament so far.

No. 1 seed Gonzaga plus-1.5 vs. No. 1 seed North Carolina For almost the entire game except a three-minute stretch late in the second half where it allowed a 14-0 run to make the finish unnecessarily dramatic, Gonzaga dominated South Carolina in a 77-74 semifinal victory Saturday evening. North Carolina never created as much distance from Oregon in its semifinal win. The Ducks had an off shooting night, going 7-for-26 from 3-point range, and the Tar Heels still could never take full advantage. In the end, Gonzaga failed to cover by 2.5 points. North Carolina lost versus the number by 4 points.

Gonzaga performed a little bit better and looked a little bit more impressive, which was nothing new. It’s been that way all season. An opportunity to take points, no matter how few, with the team that’s played better all year is too much to pass up. With apologies to Justin Jackson, who’s close, North Carolina doesn’t have anyone as efficient offensively as Gonzaga point guard Nigel Williams-Goss. The Findlay Prep graduate has made 53 percent of his 2-pointers, 36 percent of his 3s and has one of the top assist rates in the country. The Tar Heels don’t have anyone as defensively effective as center Zach Collins. The Bishop Gorman graduate grabs almost the same percentage of rebounds as North Carolina’s Kennedy Meeks, who’s hailed as one of the best rebounders in the nation, with a block rate that’s twice as high. Gonzaga coach Mark Few has an alarming tendency to not play Collins enough, but given 23 minutes against South Carolina, the freshman put up 14 points, 13 rebounds and six blocks.

Performance metrics have slotted Gonzaga as a little bit ahead of North Carolina all season. Everyone knows the retort to this. The Bulldogs have, “played no one.” For one thing, that’s untrue. But for another, it’s irrelevant. Metrics exist in part to adjust for the level of competition. If the Tar Heels win, they’ll likely to do it because other variables proved more important. Maybe their experience in reaching the final game two years in a row matters. Maybe their rebounding edge is just too much to overcome. Maybe Gonzaga just has a bad night. In short, North Carolina could very well beat Gonzaga, but it wouldn’t be because it’s been the better team over the course of the season.

And the big money realizes as much. Despite all reports of the action slightly skewed towards North Carolina, the spread has dropped a half-point. Most of the sharp money is on Gonzaga, because the numbers bear it out as a sharp play.

Betting-wise, it’s been a tournament of underdogs. Teams taking points have gone 36-28-8 against the spread, including covering in each of the last five games. Here’s to one more. Go Zags.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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