Super Bowl shootout? Sports books brace for high-scoring Falcons, Patriots

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Feb. 3, 2017 | 2 a.m.

HOUSTON — In his usual monotone delivery to go with his usual outward sense of irritation, New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick has taken his usual stance on his legacy at media sessions ahead of Super Bowl 51 this week.

He’s not talking about it. He says a time will come for those discussions, and that time is not now.

But if Sunday’s game at NRG Stadium is truly the final piece to set Belichick apart by giving him the most Super Bowl victories of any coach, he knows he’ll have to earn it with his defensive acumen. That’s what the Atlanta Falcons’ offense demands.

“I am sure we are going to have to make some in-game adjustments and figure out some things as we go,” Belichick said. “They are consistent, they move the ball and hang up a lot of points every week — obviously, the biggest challenge of the year, the best offensive team we have faced. We will have our hands full.”

In that regard, Belichick must succeed where Las Vegas bookmakers have failed all season. The Falcons may not have fattened the wallets of the betting public by beating point spreads at an extraordinary rate like the Patriots, but they found another way to regularly cash tickets.

Atlanta has eclipsed sports books’ over/under point total in 15 of 18 games — with one push — this season. No team in at least the last 20 years has gone over that often entering the Super Bowl.

And the majority of bettors have taken advantage, particularly loading up on over bets in Falcons’ games since the beginning of the second half of the season, where they’ve only gone under once in 10 contests.

“I tip my hat to them,” South Point bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro said. “They picked up on the totals way quicker than any of us so-called pros.”

The volume of money wagered on the point spread used to be 10 times more than on the over/under in any given game, but that’s changed over the last few years. Vaccaro said recreational gamblers are as confident and willing as ever to risk large portions of their bankroll backing the over, largely because of the success they’ve found with teams like the Falcons this season.

Sports books are trying to combat the trend. In the Super Bowl, that means posting the highest ever over/under of 60.5 points.

Professional bettors have driven the number down to 59 by backing the under, but as much as 90 percent of the overall handle won’t come until the weekend. The general consensus is the game will become the first ever Super Bowl to close in the 60s by kickoff on Sunday.

And with early reports of fairly even action on the sides with the Patriots sticking as a 3-point favorite, the total might go a long way in determining sports books’ success. The Denver Broncos’ 24-10 victory over the Carolina Panthers last year broke a streak of three straight and four of the last five Super Bowls going over.

The over is 25-24 all-time in Super Bowls, but it’s arguably never pitted two offenses this explosive.

It speaks to the heights Atlanta quarterback and likely NFL MVP Matt Ryan has reached that his offense is overshadowing New England’s both at Super Bowl week and in sports books. The Patriots went 10-6 to the under this year, but that was more of a result of defensive improvement than any offensive drop-off.

They had more games go over than under in each of the six seasons, and in 11 of the last 16 years of Belichick’s tenure (his first year in New England was a split 8-8 on over/unders).

Atlanta has the most efficient offense in the league by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings, but New England is second. In other words, no one determined to bet the over because of the Falcons is going to carry a concern about the Patriots behind quarterback Tom Brady to the window.

“Their offense, and Tom in particular, for years, has just functioned at a really high level,” Falcons coach Dan Quinn said. “They execute better than just about everybody.”

Well, everybody except for this year’s Falcons. Atlanta has drawn many comparisons to teams like the 2000 “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams and 2013 record-breaking Denver Broncos in Peyton Manning’s final NFL season.

Not only are the parallels valid, but they might not go far enough. The Falcons have averaged 4.32 points per drive in the playoffs, according to Football Perspective, for the best rate of all-time.

Belichick has noticed, as he’s repeatedly referenced the 40 points per game Atlanta has averaged in the playoffs and the 24-0 lead it held over Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game. The Falcons flew to a 44-21 victory over the Packers to put the game over the line of 60 points, an all-time high for a championship game.

Like in the Super Bowl, bookmakers opened the NFC Championship Game total even higher at 62 before professional bettors pushed the price down.

“But every single parlay card had the over, so it was a loss for us,” Vaccaro said.

The same danger exists in the Super Bowl. If the game happens to play out heavier on defense, sports books would likely immediately kill off much of their liability.

The majority of bettors should need a lot of points to come out victorious on the Super Bowl. Luckily for them, the Falcons have been reliable in that regard.

No one doubts their offense.

“They have too many great players and they are very well coached by (offensive coordinator) Kyle Shanahan and his offensive staff,” Belichick said. “They create a lot of problems.”

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.