Las Vegas Sun

March 19, 2024

Vegas Play of the Day: Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors

Rockets-Warriors

David Phillip / AP

Houston Rockets guard James Harden, center, scores the winning basket Thursday, April 21, 2016, during the second half of Game 3 in a first-round NBA basketball playoff series against the Golden State Warriors in Houston.

We’re entering the third season of the annual South Point-lined Play of the Day competition, effective July 1.

Starting bankrolls have reset to $10,000, with the maximum bet being to win $1,000 and the minimum wager $300. Ray Brewer won the 2015-2016 season, after Taylor Bern prevailed in 2014-2015. Bern stepped away in the middle of the 2016-2017 season with a 16-12 record and $13,317 bankroll, with Mike Grimala taking his place.

Houston Rockets plus-5.5 vs. Golden State: $330 to win $300

Houston can beat Golden State. In fact, Houston has beaten Golden State. In fact, Houston might very well beat Golden State again tonight.

The majority of bettors don’t think so, however, and that’s made for a smidgen of value in tonight’s premier NBA matchup.

The Warriors should only be laying a couple points in Houston, but oddsmakers must factor in the bias towards them. They did that and came up with an opening line of minus-4.

Gamblers loaded up on the Warriors anyway, pushing this spread upwards, and even though it’s not quite yet to 6, I still think it’s an appropriate time to fire on the Rockets. Whereas Golden State has been overvalued this season with an 18-23-1 against-the-spread record, Houston has been undervalued and sits at 28-17 versus the number.

Golden State is historically dominant — even better than last year by point differential — and by far the best team in the NBA. But the Rockets might very well be the second best team in the league.

And the second best team in the league shouldn’t get this many points in a home game.

Current Standings: Keefer (36-24-2, $12,331), Brewer (21-19-1, $9,655), Grimala (3-3, $9,500), Granger (7-10, $6,700)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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