Vegas Play of the Day: Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson at UFC 209

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, March 4, 2017 | 1:56 p.m.

We’re entering the third season of the annual South Point-lined Play of the Day competition, effective July 1.

Starting bankrolls have reset to $10,000, with the maximum bet being to win $1,000 and the minimum wager $300. Ray Brewer won the 2015-2016 season, after Taylor Bern prevailed in 2014-2015. Bern stepped away in the middle of the 2016-2017 season with a 16-12 record and $13,317 bankroll, with Mike Grimala taking his place.

Stephen Thompson minus-140 vs. Tyron Woodley: $420 to win $300

The price on Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson has crashed, and now it’s worth getting in on the sale. This wager isn’t for the faint-hearted.

The UFC 209 main event, which should go off around 9:15 tonight at T-Mobile Arena, will more than likely play out closely just like the first matchup between these two. Heck, it’s even possible Woodley catches Thompson and knocks him out like he came so close to doing last November.

But I’d put the probability low on that outcome. I’d certainly place the probability at less than 40 percent that Woodley comes out victories, which makes this a profitable wager.

Woodley may have fought the best he ever has in the first matchup with Thompson, and he could only salvage a draw. Thompson, meanwhile, appeared to have an off-night until he said he solved Woodley in the fifth round.

I have little doubt Thompson will fight better than he did in the first match tonight. I’m not so sure about Woodley.

Thompson wouldn’t be a worthwhile wager at minus-200, his price at UFC 205, but with the steep discount, he looks like the right side tonight.

Current Standings: Keefer (38-30-2, $9,951), Grimala (5-6, $9,450), Granger (11-13-1, $7,990), Brewer (24-26-1, $7,155)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.