Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Las Vegas sports books indecisive on NCAA Tournament favorite

Villanova, Duke grace the top of first sports books to adjust future odds

Villanova

David J. Phillip / AP

Villanova forward Kris Jenkins (2) celebrates with teammates after the NCAA Final Four tournament college basketball championship game against North Carolina Monday, April 4, 2016, in Houston. Villanova won 77-74.

Gonzaga performed historically well against the spread despite rarely ever coming into a game as less than a 10-point favorite.

North Carolina won the ACC, a league that produced nine NCAA Tournament teams, by two games and rebounded better than any college basketball team in years. Kansas displayed a seemingly supernatural knack to win close games behind the country’s best guard duo in Frank Mason III and Josh Jackson.

And that’s only an abbreviated sampling of teams with a legitimate chance to win college basketball’s national championship when the NCAA Tournament begins this week.

“We usually have that one team that is chalk to win it all but this year, there’s a lot of controversy on the No. 1, No. 2 seeds,” Red Rock Resort sports book director Jason McCormick said. “I think it goes nine or 10 teams deep on who should be the favorite.”

McCormick expected to post defending national champions and overall NCAA Tournament No. 1 seed Villanova at the top of Station Casinos future odds Monday morning, but there won’t be much separating the Wildcats from the other contenders. At William Hill sports books, Villanova has the second-lowest odds at 7-to-1 behind North Carolina at 13-to-2 but five other teams — Kansas, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Arizona and Duke — all lurk at less than 10-to-1.

By those numbers, it’s the first time in a decade that not a single team enters the tournament at 5-to-1 or less to win the title.

“I counted like 18 teams that I gave a real shot to win it,” said Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill sports book director. “I think it’s usually less than 10. It’s going to be all about who gets hot at the right time.”

To many people, a team that fits that profile is Duke, which won four games in four days to take ACC Tournament title in Brooklyn, N.Y. last week. The Blue Devils came into the season as championship favorites with arguably the nation’s most talented roster, and have now reassumed the position at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

Duke dropped to 5-to-1 at the Superbook on Selection Sunday, meaning the favorites in two of Las Vegas’ biggest shops — Villanova and Duke — fell in the same East Region.

“Villanova looks like the best team, but with the way Duke has come on lately, it’s hard to go against them,” McCormick said. “It’s scary to try and pick something there.”

The Blue Devils and Wildcats are not the only teams sitting at the top of betting boards. North Carolina and Gonzaga are still hanging strong at some offshore shops.

The Zags were given a boost by earning a No. 1 seed in the West Region, which McCormick singled out as the weakest collection of teams.

NCAA Tournament selection committee chairman Mark Hollis fended off rebukes on the CBS-aired selection show by alluding to college basketball’s evenly matched nature this year.

“This is the most competitive bracket I’ve seen in my five years,” he said.

March Madness usually brings a storm of oddsmakers second-guessing the selection committee, and certainly there were instances where the odds indicated errors this year. McCormick said Wichita State was easily a top 20 team in his power ratings, yet it was given a No. 10 seed.

The Shockers will lay 6.5 points to the No. 7 seed Dayton on Friday in Indianapolis. Middle Tennessee State wasn’t far behind Wichita State, and it’s a No. 12 seed against a questionable No. 5 seed Minnesota. The Gophers give the Red Raiders only 1 point on the betting line in Thursday’s game in Milwaukee.

But no one was too critical of the top of the tournament, because no one could definitively determine which teams belonged there.

“There’s no one who stands out,” Bogdanovich said. “It’s been a revolving door through the top 20 all season, and I would expect that to continue.”

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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