NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and perspective of the Midwest Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Wednesday, March 15, 2017 | 2 a.m.

Updated Thursday, March 16, 2017 | 10:16 a.m.

Note: This is part three of Talking Points’ annual series previewing the NCAA Tournament. Check out part one here, part two here and come back later for the final installment.

Those who subscribe to the theory of backing the contender that’s playing the best in any given bracket to reach the Final Four must have spun their heads like they were in “The Exorcist” upon seeing the Midwest Region.

They were left looking in every direction at the top of the betting board for a candidate that fit the profile only to find no salvation. Each of the top four seeds in the Midwest — No. 1 Kansas, No. 2 Louisville, No. 3 Oregon and No. 4 Purdue — limp into the NCAA Tournament off an upset loss, which is unlike any other region.

Most of the teams that fell into the group that holds its semifinals next Thursday and Saturday at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo., seemed possessed by a curse that prevented them from finishing the season strong. There are reasons for each fan base to stay spooked.

Kansas fell to TCU 85-82 as 8-point favorites at the Sprint Center in its first Big 12 Conference tournament game. The Jayhawks were playing without last year’s top recruit in the nation, Josh Jackson, who served a suspension for the latest in a line of vehicular transgressions ranging from kicking a car to backing into one and failing to leave information.

But it was also a sobering reminder of how quickly fortunes can change for teams with a tendency to play so many close games. Kansas had another fantastic season, and was in line to earn the No. 1 overall seed in its 28th straight tournament berth, but it was built on an unsustainable 11-2 record in games decided by six points or less.

Louisville’s upset in its last game was more forgivable, as the Cardinals dropped an 81-77 decision to Duke as 2-point favorites in the ACC tournament quarterfinals. But the loss meant the Cardinals had failed to cover in five of six games — going 3-3 straight-up in the span — to end the season, where they routinely committed defensive lapses that were uncommon compared to the rest of the year.

Likewise, Purdue faded a bit on the defensive end in losing two of its final four games and only covering in one. Oddsmaker power-rating wise, the Boilermakers are one of the weakest Big Ten regular season conference champions ever.

Oregon nearly paired its Pac-12 regular season championship with a tournament title but stumbled 83-80 to Arizona as 2-point favorites in the final. The Ducks’ bigger loss was seeing senior three-and-D specialist Chris Boucher go down with a torn ACL in the semifinals, where they failed to cover a 9-point spread in a 73-65 win over California.

To discover a team that fits the cliché of peaking at the right time, bettors must set aside their bias for higher-ranked teams and look deeper. The teams with the fifth and sixth best odds to reach the Final Four did the terrorizing to opponents over the last couple weeks.

No. 5 seed Iowa State and No. 7 seed Michigan won the Big 12 and Big Ten tournaments, respectively, by pulling off two outright upsets. The Cyclones’ two best players, Monte Morris and Deonte Burton, can make it rain three-pointers when they’re on, similar to the way Wolverines ignite behind Zak Irvin and Derrick Walton.

Iowa State’s odds to win the national championship at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook swung down to 50-to-1 from 60-to-1 on selection Sunday, while Michigan’s trimmed to 60-to-1 from 100-to-1. Those decreases show recency still matters to the betting market.

The farther the search goes down the region, the more teams like Michigan and Iowa State emerge.

No. 13 seed Vermont holds the nation’s longest winning streak at 21 straight games. No. 12 seed Nevada-Reno won and covered in nine straight to notch both the Mountain West Conference regular season and tournament titles. No. 11 seed Rhode Island put itself off the bubble by riding an eight-game win streak to the Atlantic 10 conference tournament championship.

The Rams open the tournament in what’s a pick’em at several sports books against No. 6 seed Creighton, another team searching to absolve itself of a late crisis. After losing senior point guard Maurice Watson in January, the Blue Jays went 7-8 straight-up and 6-9 against the spread.

The Jayhawks, Cardinals and Boilermakers luckily don’t have to fight off the loss of any players, only the presence of a bad performance or two. It’s not difficult to envision each of them prevailing given the pieces at their disposal.

Purdue has one of the most intimidating frontcourts in the tournament with junior forward Caleb Swanigan and junior center Isaac Haas. Louisville starts two guards, sophomore Donovan Mitchell and junior Quentin Snider, who can score in bulk.

Few backcourts have played better, but Kansas claims one of them. Kansas coach Bill Self switched from his usual post-centric offense this season to start three more high-quality guards — Frank Mason III, Devonte Graham and Svi Myhailiuk — alongside Jackson. The strategy has worked everywhere except at the sports books, where Kansas is 11-18-1 against the spread, the worst mark for any top seven seed in the tournaments.

The Jayhawks have surely already sent many gamblers into a rage similar to the one they’re currently experiencing trying to figure out which team to back in the Midwest.

Read below for picks and analysis on every Midwest Region first round game, presented in rough order of confidence. Check back later for updated picks after the “First Four” games conclude.

No. 10 seed Oklahoma State plus-2.5 vs. No. 7 seed Michigan Michigan’s offense is a sight to behold, but it’s still only No. 3 nationally in efficiently per kenpom.com. Oklahoma State is first. Cowboys’ sophomore point guard Jawun Evans might be the most underrated player in the country, and the Wolverines stand little chance of slowing him.

No. 12 seed Nevada-Reno plus-6 vs. No. 5 seed Iowa State The Cyclones went on a great run to end the season, but the Wolf Pack’s was quietly even better. UNR big man Cameron Oliver might be the best player on the floor, and could spell matchup trouble for Iowa State, which already struggles to rebound.

No. 9 seed Michigan State plus-2 vs. No. 8 seed Miami These teams, in many ways, look like carbon copies of each other. They were two of the more disappointing teams in the nation this season, largely due to turnover-plagued offenses that overshadowed their typically strong defensive play. Taking the points in a game this evenly matched is always preferable.

No. 13 seed Vermont plus-9.5 vs. No. 4 seed Purdue Hard to imagine many teams will be as locked in to start the tournament as Purdue, which has lost overtime games in the first round in each of the last two years. But this still feels like a few too many points for a Catamounts' team blessed with more depth than most mid-majors.

No. 16 seed North Carolina Central minus-3.5 vs. No. 16 seed UC-Davis North Carolina Central was only in six lined games this season, but they covered in every one of them. Statistically, the Eagles are one of the strongest No. 16 seeds in the last several years of the tournament.

No. 3 seed Oregon minus-15 vs. No. 14 seed Iona Although Boucher is a terrific player, the betting market tends to overvalue injuries, especially at this point of the season. The Ducks will stay afloat, just like they did with All-American Dillon Brooks battling an injury for a stretch early in the season.

No. 1 seed Kansas minus-23.5 vs. No. 16 seed UC-Davis The Aggies had one of their better offensive games of the season in upsetting North Carolina Central 67-63 to get into the round of 64. It's not going to be nearly as easy against a Kansas defense that's improved as the year has progressed.

No. 11 seed Rhode Island plus-1 vs. No. 6 seed Creighton Rhode Island was considered a fringe top 25 team at the beginning of the season, and has finally started to resemble one at the end. Creighton has looked nothing of the sort over the last month and a half.

No. 15 seed Jacksonville State plus-20.5 vs. No. 2 seed Louisville Jacksonville State has won and covered in four straight, including two outright upsets, heading into the tournament. Maybe getting hot at the right time does matter.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.