Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Sports books continue to fare strongly on NCAA Tournament

Las Vegas has seen record volume, big wins heading into Final Four

Joel Berry

Rainier Ehrhardt / AP FILE

North Carolina’s Joel Berry II (2) reacts after making a three-point basket against Arkansas during the first half in a second-round game of the NCAA men’s college basketball tournament in Greenville, S.C., Sunday, March 19, 2017.

Future odds give Gonzaga around a one-in-three chance of winning the NCAA Tournament, and it could enter as the favorite in both the semifinal and championship game of the Final Four in Glendale, Ariz.

It’s exactly the type of scenario that Station Casinos hoped to avoid a couple weeks ago with some vulnerability having built up on Gonzaga in the futures market going into the tournament.

“We were able to get off that a little bit,” Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito said. “They weren’t even the favorite in their region. It was Arizona, and we ended up with more tickets on them than anyone else.”

Count it as another victory for the sports books in a tournament that’s already been full of them. Casinos have ridden a strong showing from underdogs, which have gone 34-28-8 against the spread, to score big profits in a tournament that’s set record-highs in terms of betting volume all across town.

“It’s been a good tournament for us,” said Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports at MGM Resorts. “I think we’re experiencing close to double-digit growth, if not double-digit growth, for overall handle, and the hold has been good, too.”

Sports books look set to continue their success with the Final Four, starting with the semifinal games that tip off at 3:09 Saturday afternoon at University of Phoenix Stadium.

No. 1 seed Gonzaga lays 6.5 points to No. 7 seed South Carolina in the first game before No. 1 seed North Carolina gives 5 points to No. 3 seed Oregon in the night cap. Two top-ranked teams offered at less than premium prices in the Final Four may have set up the house to get bombarded with money on the favorites in the past, but not this year.

Both games have drawn “really good two-way action” early at Station Casinos, according to Esposito. MGM was heavy on South Carolina and Oregon on Thursday, but Rood said that was almost entirely from a few big bets.

Parlay money was slanted toward North Carolina and Gonzaga, which is a better indicator of the public money to come in the day before the game. Therefore, the ledger projects to look pretty balanced with casinos dodging any precarious positions.

“There’s been nothing to show we’ll need to move the lines a lot,” Esposito said. “But it wouldn’t surprise me to see (North) Carolina go up.”

The Tar Heels are the lone team remaining to never move above 15-to-1, where they opened the season, to win the title this year. Gonzaga spent most of the year alongside North Carolina as one of the favorites, but opened as high as 100-to-1 in the offseason.

The Ducks mostly stayed at lower prices too but came into the tournament at as high as 30-to-1 with the loss of senior Chris Boucher to injury in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament supposed to hurt their chances. That leaves South Carolina as the one true party crasher, as it sat 250-to-1 at Station Casinos after the 68-team tournament field was announced.

“There are some small tickets out there on them,” Esposito said. “Nothing too crazy, but some people got a taste. I think they probably went to school there or just took a chance.”

North Carolina has garnered by far the most tickets to win the title at MGM, and likely also the most at other books, but they’re all for such small payouts that sports books aren’t really threatened.

“North Carolina is definitely our worst result,” Rood said. “It’s not a loser, but it’s not great. We’ll be rooting for Oregon on Saturday.”

From a regional perspective, Oregon vs. Gonzaga would feel like the most fitting conclusion to the season. The eyes of the college basketball world were more glued to Pacific Standard Time than normal this season with the star power concentrated in the Pac-12 race between Oregon, Arizona and UCLA and Gonzaga’s bid at a perfect season.

The Bulldogs and Ducks are the first Western teams since 2008 to make it this far, and they’ll be playing in the first Western-based Final Four since 1995.

Local recreational bettors aren’t expected to show signs of West Coast bias, though. To attract the most action in Monday’s national championship game, bookmakers believe North Carolina would have to be involved.

“I think it would be fun to see the Gamecocks and Oregon myself, but that’s not the best scenario for interest,” Rood said. “I think two teams with big followings like North Carolina and Oregon would be strong.”

Esposito added, “(North) Carolina and Gonzaga would be a tremendous matchup from a pure championship handle standpoint.”

Put together the current moneylines on both teams to win in the semifinals — Gonzaga is minus-280 (risking $2.80 to win $1) while North Carolina is minus-200 — and they imply about a 50 percent chance that the two No. 1 seeds square off in the final game. But if the Tar Heels and the Bulldogs playing is the hope of sports books, then perhaps the probability should stand a little higher based on the last couple weeks.

The house seems to have gotten everything it has wanted throughout this year’s tournament.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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