Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Vegas Play of the Day: New York Yankees at Houston Astros

Yankees

David Dermer / AP

New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino sprays sparkling wine in the locker room the Yankees defeated the Cleveland Indians 5-2 in Game 5 of a baseball American League Division Series, early Thursday, Oct. 12, 2017, in Cleveland. The Yankees advanced to the ALCS.

We’ve entered the fourth season of the annual South Point-lined Play of the Day competition, effective July 1.

Starting bankrolls have reset to $10,000, with the maximum bet being to win $1,000 and the minimum wager $300. Ray Brewer won back-to-back titles in the 2015-2016 and 2016-17 seasons, after Taylor Bern prevailed in 2014-2015.

New York Yankees plus-165 at Houston Astros: $300 to win $495

New York is at several disadvantages going into game 1 of the American League Championship Series.

The Astros are starting a better pitcher, Dallas Keuchel to the Yankees’ Masahiro Tanaka. Houston is also at home in front of a fan base that’s waited years to advance this far in the postseason and has gotten several days of rest by wrapping up its divisional round series against Boston sooner.

And yet this line is too high. Adjust for the house’s hold percentage, and the odds imply about a 64 percent chance that the Astros win.

In reality, the split should be closer to 55/45. That’s not an insignificant difference, and makes the Yankees the play tonight.

Having had to play two more games in the playoffs isn’t necessarily a disadvantage for the Yankees. They could be clicking and come out hot while the Astros take a while to get back in the swing of things after four days off.

The Astros should win the series, but that doesn’t mean they’ll win game 1.

Current Standings: Granger (7-6, $12,095), Keefer (11-6-1, $11,381), Grimala (5-5, $9,595), Brewer (9-11, $7,730)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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