Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Vegas Play of the Day: Villanova vs. Michigan

Nova basketball 1 seed

Frank Franklin II / Assocaited Press

Villanova’s Jalen Brunson, left, celebrates with Donte DiVincenzo after the team’s NCAA college basketball game against Providence in the Big East men’s tournament final Saturday, March 10, 2018, in New York. Villanova won 76-66 in overtime.

We’ve entered the fourth season of the annual South Point-lined Play of the Day competition, effective July 1.

Starting bankrolls have reset to $10,000, with the maximum bet being to win $1,000 and the minimum wager $300. A participant's failure to place a bet on their scheduled day results in a $200 bankroll penalty.

Ray Brewer won back-to-back titles in the 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons, after Taylor Bern prevailed in 2014-15.

Villanova minus-7 points vs. Michigan: $990 to win $900

Tonight's national championship game is a big deal for the analytics movement, as it is shaping up to be the first title contest decided by which team is better at playing "modern basketball."

The 3-point line will undoubtedly make the difference in the game. Nearly half of Villanova's shot attempts this season (47.5 percent) have come from 3-point range, and the Wildcats make those long-range shots at a super-efficient 40.1 percent.

That 3-centric approach has powered Villanova to offensive heights never before seen in the college game. Nova is the No. 1-ranked KenPom offense, and their average of 1.102 points per possession is the best in the NCAA since Troy finished the 2008-09 season at 1.119. That's why Jay Wright's team is the best in the nation and a 7-point favorite.

On the other side of the court is Michigan, which made the title game thanks to John Beilein's analytic-based approach to defense. The Wolverines eschew interior D in favor of covering the 3-point line at all costs, and the results have proven him right. For the season, just 29.9 percent of shots attempted by Michigan opponents have been 3-pointers, making the Wolverines the No. 6 defense in terms of limiting 3's. And opponents have made just 32.7 percent, good for 51st in the nation.

Michigan's defense was put to the ultimate test against a red-hot Loyola Chicago team in the national semifinal on Saturday. Beilein's defense held Loyola to a mere 10 attempts from beyond the arc, and just one make. Cinderella met a modern defensive scheme and was sent packing.

Can Michigan stifle Villanova's offense in a similar way? They probably have a better chance of doing so than any other team in the field, but I still don't think so. Nova has shooters at every position, including six players who shoot 38.7 percent or better from 3-point range. And with Jalen Brunson penetrating and creating, the Wildcats get their share of easy layups as well. So I think Villanova will win its second title in three years on Monday night.

But will Nova cover the seven points? I think it's likely. If the Wildcats win, it will likely mean their shots were falling, and 7-point spread doesn't seem so large when 3's are dropping left and right.

Michigan has the right approach, but Villanova is just too good. Wright has designed and built the perfect offense for 2018, and that legacy will be cemented when Nova shoots its way to a blowout victory.

Current Standings: Keefer (31-24-1, $11,646), Granger (17-15, $11,559), Brewer (24-23-1, $8,500), Grimala (13-19, $5,565)

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