Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 10

Terry Wilson

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Kentucky quarterback Terry Wilson celebrates as he walks off the field after Kentucky won an NCAA college football game against Missouri on a touchdown with no time left on the clock Saturday, Oct. 27, 2018, in Columbia, Mo. Kentucky won 15-14.

The SEC hosts the two biggest games of Week 10, which might not sound like much of a surprise for an early November college football slate.

No one saw either of these coming, though. Nope, not even Alabama at LSU was supposed to be in the conversation of regular-season games of the year this season.

The Tigers have been so strong that it’s easy to forget that their expectations were diminished going into the year. Sports books power-rated LSU in the bottom half of the SEC West — behind Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State and Texas A&M — going into the season with an over/under win total of seven games.

The Tigers have already matched that going into a major matchup that will determine whether they or the Crimson Tide stand in control of the SEC West. Conference-mate Kentucky has one-upped LSU, however, in terms of coming out of nowhere.

Kentucky hosts Georgia in its own battle for divisional supremacy, as the winner will lead the SEC East. With a record identical to LSU’s at 7-1, Kentucky has already eclipsed its over/under win total of 5.5 games.

Betting odds indicate both teams will have hard time extending their dream seasons Saturday, as LSU is a 14-point underdog to Alabama while Kentucky is plus-9.5 versus Georgia. But they weren’t supposed to get this far in the first place.

For once, the SEC wasn’t supposed to be the focus this week.

Talking Points has two plays on this week’s SEC schedule, part of five overall. The blog is coming off of a successful week in going 25-23 against the spread picking every weekend game including 4-2 on plays, 9-5 on leans and 12-16 on guesses.

That brings the season totals to 213-234-7 — 25-18 on plays, 63-72-3 on leans and 125-144-4 on guesses.

Check below for picks on every Week 10 game over the next two days. Picks are separated by conference, listed in rough order of confidence and labeled in three confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

ACC

Pittsburgh plus-7.5 at Virginia, over/under: 48.5. Pittsburgh has gotten healthier and gone on a tear, covering three straight with the only outright loss coming by five points to Notre Dame. And yet, the Panthers are still unfairly weighed down for their rough start to the season. Lean: Pittsburgh plus-7.5.

Georgia Tech minus-6.5 at North Carolina, over/under: 62.5. Number has swelled from as low as minus-3.5, putting value on the Tar Heels with the extra points. North Carolina has been better since getting its full complement of players back three weeks ago. Although it’s 0-3 straight-up, the Tar Heels have been outscored by a total of 16 points in the span. Lean: North Carolina plus-6.5.

Syracuse minus-6 at Wake Forest, over/under: 75.5. Syracuse has major efficiency edges on both sides of the ball — gaining 5.9 yards per play against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents to Wake Forest’s 4.9 on offense, and allowing only 6 yards per play to its opponent’s 6.7 yards per play. BB&T Field does not provide a big enough homefield advantage to make up for the discrepancy, so this line could be more than a touchdown. Guess: Syracuse minus-6.

Florida State plus-8.5 at North Carolina State, over/under: 53.5. The Seminoles still appear to be getting a couple points worth of deference on the betting line because of its name value. There’s no other reason to explain why this point spread would fall below double digits. Guess: NC State minus-8.5.

Duke plus-9 at Miami, over/under: 50.5. There’s a lot of talk about how big of a step back Miami has taken in recent weeks, but Duke might deserve the same discussion. A promising season has gotten away from the Blue Devils as they’ve lost three of their last four both straight-up and against the spread. Guess: Miami minus-9.

Boston College minus-2.5 at Virginia Tech, over/under: 57.5. There’s no value here either way as the line looks exactly right, but Virginia Tech’s defense has uncharacteristically struggled in giving up 6 yards per play. Here’s to hoping Boston College, on the other hand, can continue improving now that it’s injury report is nearly empty. Guess: Boston College minus-2.5.

Louisville plus-38.5 at Clemson, over/under: 61. Bookmakers almost can’t make the number high enough against a team that’s quit on the season. Louisville has quit on the season. Guess: Clemson minus-38.5.

Big Ten

Penn State plus-11 at Michigan, over/under: 53.5. Yes, Michigan might have the best defense in the nation but the quality of opposing offenses it’s faced leaves much to be desired. Penn State will be easily the most explosive offense it’s encountered, and getting more than 10 points for an all-new challenge is beyond generous. Play: Penn State plus-11.

Nebraska plus-18.5 at Ohio State, over/under: 73. Turmoil appears to be enveloping Ohio State’s program, while progress is the theme at Nebraska. At this point of the season, situation can override talent in certain spots, and this could turn out to be one such example. Lean: Nebraska plus-18.5.

Notre Dame minus-9.5 at Northwestern, over/under: 53.5. In the spirit of Halloween, it’s time to confront a fear. It’s terrifying to fade Northwestern as a home underdog, considering its history of success in the role, but the Wildcats have nothing in their statistical profile to indicate they can hang with the Irish. Notre Dame is gaining 1.4 yards more per play on offense, and giving up .8 yards per play less on defense. Guess: Notre Dame minus-9.5.

Iowa plus-3 at Purdue, over/under: 51. There are concerns with Iowa, including the health of quarterback Nate Stanley and the overall team psyche after coming up short at Penn State last week. But the Hawkeyes were 6.5-point favorites in this game a month ago, and although Purdue clobbered Ohio State, it’s not worth a near 10-point line adjustment. Guess: Iowa plus-3.

Rutgers plus-30.5 at Wisconsin, over/under: 50.5. Typically only looking to lay four-plus touchdowns with the best teams in the nation. At 5-3 straight-up and 2-6 against the spread, Wisconsin certainly doesn’t qualify. Guess: Rutgers plus-30.5.

Minnesota minus-9.5 at Illinois, over/under: 64. Would at least need double digits to consider backing the atrocious Illini. They’ve been particularly toothless at home in Big Ten games under coach Lovie Smith, having gone 1-10 straight-up and 3-8 against the spread. Guess: Minnesota minus-9.5.

Michigan State minus-2.5 at Maryland, over/under: 46.5. Hard to possibly figure out what to do with this one after the whirlwind week that’s played out at Maryland, which included the reinstatement and then firing coach D.J. Durkin amidst the protest of players. From a pure statistical standpoint, the number is inflated in Michigan State’s direction but Maryland has more than its share of distractions. Guess: Michigan State minus-2.5.

Big 12

Oklahoma minus-14 at Texas Tech, over/under: 77.5. Feels like a much more essential game for Texas Tech, as a win could keep it in the Big 12 Conference race and perhaps improve coach Kliff Kingsbury’s chances of being retained. Oklahoma has incredibly outgained five straight opponents by at least 2.5 yards per play, but that might be subject to regression and Texas Tech might have an offense to match for a while. Lean: Texas Tech plus-14.

Kansas State plus-8 at TCU, over/under: 46. Take Bill Snyder away from the Kansas State sideline and this is an easy play on TCU. The Horned Frogs are far more talented but must exercise caution due to Snyder’s sustained point-spread success especially after losses, though few have ever been as lopsided as last week’s 51-14 torching to Oklahoma at home. Lean: TCU minus-8.

Iowa State minus-14.5 at Kansas, over/under: 46.5. Expect to read a version of this stat every week going forward: Iowa State is now 20-5 against the spread in the Big 12 under coach Matt Campbell. To add to the Cyclones’ prospects this week, the Jayhawks are coming off of a momentous 27-26 win over TCU as 13.5-point underdogs that was a massive fluke considering they were outgained by nearly 200 yards and 2.5 yards per play. Guess: Iowa State minus-14.5.

West Virginia plus-2 at Texas, over/under: 58. Worried about buying on West Virginia after its most lopsided win of the year, 58-14 as 14.5-point favorites over Baylor, and against Texas after a crippling loss, 38-35 as 2.5-point favorites at Oklahoma State. But the Longhorns don’t appear to have the secondary to match up with Mountaineers quarterback Will Grier and his cadre of receivers. Guess: West Virginia plus-2.

Oklahoma State minus-8 at Baylor, over/under: 68. If there ever was such thing as a “sandwich spot” — apologies for using that cringe worthy term — it’s here with the Cowboys. They’re coming off of a huge 38-35 upset win over Texas, with a meeting against archrival Oklahoma on deck. If Oklahoma State rolls anyway, here’s a personal promise to never use “sandwich spot” in this space again. Guess: Baylor plus-8.

Pac-12

California plus-10.5 at Washington State, over/under: 50. A large part of the Cougars’ unforeseen success this season has come from a coaching edge in arguably every game under Mike Leach. That’s in doubt here against Justin Wilcox, who’s been a miracle worker in Berkely, Calif. and has helped assemble the Pac-12’s best defense this season. The Golden Bears have only given up 4.4 yards per play, and will impose limitations that the Cougars are unaccustomed to. Play: California plus-10.5.

Stanford plus-9.5 at Washington, over/under: 45.5. Statistically, Washington has put up a positive postgame win expectancy in each of its three losses this season. The Huskies have appeared to play tight all season, but the pressure is off now that they’ve compounded losses and diminished all expectations. They still have a much stronger roster than Stanford. Play: Washington minus-9.5.

Colorado plus-3 at Arizona, over/under: 58.5. Colorado was setting up to be a favorite in this game before last week’s disparate results, as the Buffaloes lost 41-34 to Oregon State as 24.5-point favorites while Arizona stunned Oregon 44-15 as 7-point underdogs. Not putting too much into those performances, however, as Oregon has been among the most overrated teams in the country and Colorado was unlucky to lose in a game where it outgained Oregon State by 2.5 yards per play. Lean: Colorado plus-3.

Utah minus-7 at Arizona State, over/under: 56. Pressure is mounting for sudden Pac-12 favorite Utah, but the Utes haven’t shown any signs of struggling with it. They haven’t played as much as a close game in the last four weeks, and there’s no reason to jump off their moneymaking train until it shows signs of decay. Guess: Utah minus-7.

UCLA plus-10 at Oregon, over/under: 63. Two straight Ducks’ losses is keeping this spread suppressed, but they’re still the side with the far better personnel. And if it wasn’t enough that UCLA coach Chip Kelly was short on players in his initial season, the Bruins are also among the most injured teams in the nation. Guess: Oregon minus-10.

USC minus-17 at Oregon State, over/under: 61.5. Must think Oregon State is a more pleasant team to play on right now, with the Beavers celebrating last week’s comeback 41-34 victory over Colorado while the Trojans ride a two-game losing streak with coach Clay Helton reportedly on the outs. Those advantages can be overstated, but maybe not in this case when the tumultuous side is being asked to lay a huge number on the road. Guess: Oregon State plus-17.

SEC

Texas A&M plus-4 at Auburn, over/under: 49. Let’s not forget this was supposed to be a transitional year at Texas A&M, which has instead taken on an inflated perception by going a fortunate 3-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Let’s also not forget Auburn was seen as a College Football Playoff contender, and has instead been regarded as a disappointment because of an unlucky 1-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. Play: Auburn minus-4.

South Carolina minus-1 at Ole Miss, over/under: 66.5. Against the only offense it’s encountered remotely as explosive as Mississippi’s, South Carolina’s supposedly strong defense was demolished by Georgia in a 41-17 loss. The Rebels have severe defensive issues, but they’ve conveniently had a bye week to work on them while South Carolina was locked in a battle with Tennessee that it escaped with a 27-24 win as 9-point favorites. Play: Ole Miss plus-1.

Georgia minus-9.5 at Kentucky, over/under: 44.5. From a matchup standpoint, this game looks to favor Kentucky. The Wildcats are suffocating up front, which is Georgia’s weak spot. The Bulldogs have also been mediocre against the run — ranking 77th in the nation by S&P+ — with the Wildcats sure to try exploit them on the ground with Benny Snell. Lean: Kentucky plus-9.5.

Missouri plus-6.5 at Florida, over/under: 57.5. By almost any measure, Missouri has played better than its 4-4 straight-up record indicates. The Tigers are 0-2 in games decided by less than a touchdown, dropping both in the final seconds, and therefore ever-so-slightly undervalued. Lean: Missouri plus-6.5.

Alabama minus-14 at LSU, over/under: 53.5. A lot of hubbub about how huge this line is, but it’s almost the exactly the same as it was coming into the season as the Crimson Tide were minus-13 in game of the year markets. True, LSU has been better than expected. But so has Alabama. Refuse to pick against the Crimson Tide at a fair line, and this is a fair line. Guess: Alabama minus-14.

Louisiana Tech plus-24 at Mississippi State, over/under: 48. Skip Holtz is one of the most underappreciated coaches in the country, as he’s steadily headed overachieving teams and consistently covered big point spreads. This might be one of Holtz’s weaker teams, and yet Louisiana Tech is still 6-2 straight-up and plays hard enough that a backdoor cover is always in play if worse comes to worst. Guess: Louisiana Tech plus-24.

Charlotte plus-22 at Tennessee, over/under: 46.5. Even with the Volunteers mired in a rebuilding year, there’s a clear talent divide between these two teams. Still, Tennessee’s offense is too prone to extended droughts to lay a big number. Guess: Charlotte plus-22.

AAC

Memphis minus-13 at East Carolina, over/under: 64.5. No team has endured more bad breaks this season than East Carolina, which makes the Pirates undervalued going forward. They’ve been terrible in the red zone, which is notoriously volatile, and more telling, have the worst turnover margin in the nation at minus-12. Guess: East Carolina plus-13.

Navy plus-13.5 at Cincinnati, over/under: 49.5. No interest in going up against a solid-across-the-board team like Cincinnati unless the price is too outrageous. This doesn’t qualify with Navy having struggled all year and now lost six straight games against the spread. Guess: Cincinnati minus-13.5.

Tulane plus-7 at South Florida, over/under: 59.5. Would love to continue backing the Green Wave and fading the Bulls, but it hurts to have missed the best of the number after this opened as high as South Florida minus-9. Hard to see the Bulls being able to mount their best effort after getting throttled 57-36 at Houston and now having to turn around and defend Tulane’s triple option. Guess: Tulane plus-7.

Connecticut plus-17.5 at Tulsa, over/under: 58.5. Golden Hurricane haven’t given this many points on the betting line in more than five years — and almost all of the past Tulsa teams were better than this year’s version. Connecticut ranks as the worst team in the nation by Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings, but it’s kept its last two games within a touchdown. Guess: Connecticut plus-17.5.

CUSA

UTEP plus-1 at Rice, over/under: 44.5. The Miners have lost 20 straight, but the Owls’ only win this season came via last-second field goal against Prairie View. Forget the losing streak; the better team is the underdog here. Lean: UTEP plus-1.

Houston minus-14.5 at SMU, over/under: 71.5. Few teams in the country have improved as much as the Mustangs, which have covered in two straight and took Cincinnati to overtime last week. They’ll be one of the tougher tests as of late for Houston, which is riding high off of a 57-36 win over South Florida as 10-point favorite, and the Cougars may not see it coming. Lean: SMU plus-14.5.

Marshall minus-3 at Southern Miss, over/under: 47. Marshall is expected to get back starting quarterback Isaiah Green for this game, but Southern Miss sophomore Jack Abraham is a rising, formidable foe. Hard to lay points with a visitor that’s been worse than the home team on both sides of the ball, regardless of their injury situation. Lean: Southern Miss plus-3.

Florida Atlantic plus-2.5 at Florida International, over/under: 59. Panthers are among the most overachieving teams in the nation, having come out of nowhere to go 6-2 straight-up and against the spread. Owls are among the most underachieving teams in the nation, having sputtered to a 3-5 straight-up, 1-7 against the spread record. But here’s the thing about polarizing results — They tend to even out over time. Lean: Florida Atlantic plus-2.5.

UTSA plus-22 at UAB, over/under: 43.5. The Blazers have covered in six straight, and it appears oddsmakers still haven’t caught up. They should be laying four touchdowns here against UTSA, which ranks last in the nation in averaging 3.6 yards per play. Guess: UAB minus-22.

Western Kentucky plus-13.5 at Middle Tennessee State, over/under: 52.5. Middle Tennessee had struggled all year until a breakout in last week’s 51-17 win over Old Dominion as 4-point favorites. Western Kentucky had been competitive for most of the year until a collapse in last week’s 38-17 loss to Florida International. It’s handicapping 101 not to buy one team at its height and sell another team at its nadir. Guess: Western Kentucky plus-13.5.

Independents

Liberty plus-1.5 at Massachusetts, over/under: 73.5. Minutemen have underwhelmed for the most part this season, but they still have an experienced offense capable of exploding at times. They should have an opportunity against the Flames’ defense, which gave up 631 yards to Idaho State last week. Guess: Massachusetts minus-1.5.

Air Force plus-6.5 at Army, over/under: 42. No players on either team were alive the last time Army was this big of a favorite in the series, as it’s been at least 30 years. So, yes, the spread may seem a bit inflated but don’t mind paying a small tax on a Knights’ side that has been as consistent as any team in the country. Guess: Army minus-6.5.

MAC

Central Michigan plus-13.5 at Eastern Michigan, over/under: 46.5. Number appears a few points too short given Central Michigan’s complete inability to move the ball. The Chippewas have the worst offense in the nation by the S&P+ ratings. Guess: Eastern Michigan minus-13.5.

MWC

BYU plus-13.5 at Boise State, over/under: 55. The Cougars play at one of the nation’s slowest paces, employing a deliberate, bruising style not unlike the one San Diego State used to upset Boise State 19-13 as 13.5-point road underdogs last month. The Broncos’ rush defense has been a liability all season, so expect to see BYU running backs Squally Canada and Matt Hadley grinding out yards. Lean: BYU plus-13.5.

San Diego State minus-10.5 at New Mexico, over/under: 47.5. Speaking of San Diego State’s style, that’s exactly what makes them tough to trust laying double digits. The Aztecs haven’t beaten a single FBS opponent by more than a touchdown this season. Guess: New Mexico plus-10.5.

Fresno State minus-26 at UNLV, over/under: 60.5. Bulldogs have covered six straight but that’s almost entirely because of a smothering defense. They’ve never been asked to lay this many points in an FBS game under coach Jeff Tedford, let alone on the road against a team that, for all its faults, can still score. Fresno State’s offense is not explosive enough to lay nearly four touchdowns. Guess: UNLV plus-26.

Utah State minus-19.5 at Hawaii, over/under: 70.5. Travel looks daunting for an Aggies’ team that has only ventured out of Utah once since September, and even that was a short trip to Wyoming. Utah State should have no trouble winning, but its defense has shown some recent vulnerability that may allow Hawaii to hang around for a while. Guess: Hawaii plus-19.5.

San Jose State plus-13.5 at Wyoming, over/under: 40.5. Number looks exactly right, but hoping San Jose State gets a boost from earning its first win of the season last week, a 50-37 victory over UNLV. Wyoming joins San Jose State at the bottom of the nation in offense, as the Cowboys have gained only 4.7 yards per play, and therefore, are hard pressed to pull away from any team. Guess: San Jose State plus-13.5.

SBC

Texas State plus-6.5 at Georgia State, over/under: 52. There’s been hidden value on Texas State all season as the Bobcats have a stout defense that gives them an edge in every game they play. No reason to stop extracting it now, not with Texas State having covered in each of its last three contests. Guess: Texas State plus-6.5.

Louisiana plus-10.5 at Troy, over/under: 64. Troy has one of the Sun Belt’s best defenses; Lafayette has one of the Sun Belt’s best offenses. When forced, prefer to go defense over offense — and taking points over laying points. Guess: Louisiana plus-10.5.

Georgia Southern minus-7.5 at UL-Monroe, over/under: 58.5. No reason to fade the Eagles simply because they’re coming off of a huge 34-14 win over Appalachian State as 11-point underdogs. There’s not enough points here to make that a serious consideration because coach Chad Lunsford’s program has reached a higher level than most of its conference opponents. Guess: Georgia Southern minus-7.5.

Appalachian State minus-14.5 at Coastal Carolina, over/under: 56. Looking for spots to buy on the Mountaineers after they took a tumble in power ratings following two straight point-spread losses including a 34-14 outright defeat to Georgia Southern. This might be a few too many points, but it’s going to be difficult for Coastal Carolina’s struggling rush defense to stop sophomore standout running back Darrynton Evans. Guess: Appalachian State minus-14.5.

South Alabama plus-16 at Arkansas State, over/under: 63.5. Favored to win the Sun Belt coming into the season because of all they had coming back, the RedWolves have been burdened by unwarranted expectations all season that’s left them overvalued. They haven’t beaten a single FBS opponent by more than this spread — and their schedule isn’t exactly overwhelming. Guess: South Alabama plus-16.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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