College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 9

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Oct. 26, 2018 | 2 a.m.

The number of unbeaten college football teams fell to five after Week 8. The number of unbeaten college football teams in sports books fell to one.

Washington State is the unofficial betting national champion of college football with a little more than a month left in the regular season. The Cougars ascended to the position in a moment hailed as their biggest home game in decades, a 34-20 victory over Oregon as 3-point favorites.

At 7-0 against the spread, they’re the only team that’s yet to fail in covering a single point spread. Washington State’s closest competition, Utah State, dropped its first decision with a 24-16 win at Wyoming as 14-point favorites.

The Cougars do have one outright loss, having fallen 39-36 at USC in Week 4 but they fell within the plus-4.5 spread in the defeat. They might not get the deference of the five perfect teams — Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, UCF and South Florida — but their backers have sure appreciated the run.

Washington State plus-3 over Oregon was one win in an overall winning Week 8 for Talking Points, which went 29-23 against the spread picking every game. The blog struggled with top-rated plays, however, in going 1-3.

The record on the year now stands at 188-211-7 — 21-16 on plays, 54-67-3 on leans and 113-128-4 on guesses.

Check below for picks and betting analysis of every Week 9 game on the board. Picks are separated by conference, listed in rough order of confidence and labeled in three different categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

ACC

Miami minus-3 at Boston College, over/under: 49.5. Don’t believe the hype as it pertains to Miami’s season effectively ending after a 16-13 loss to Virginia as 7-point favorites. The Hurricanes arguably still deserve to be the favorite in the ACC Coastal Division, and have a talent edge at almost every position against the Eagles. Play: Miami minus-3.

Duke minus-2.5 at Pittsburgh, over/under: 46. Pittsburgh is too erratic to trust at a low number against a more talented team. The Panthers’ biggest strength is their run game with Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall but the Blue Devils rank in the nation’s top 10 against the run by the S&P+ ratings. Lean: Duke minus-2.5.

Clemson minus-18 at Florida State, over/under: 49.5. There may have been some real value earlier in the week on Clemson minus-14, but it’s long since extracted now. Don’t be surprised if the Seminoles’ playmaking secondary, which includes emerging young standouts like Hamsah Nasirildeen and Stanford Samuels, makes it tough on Clemson freshman quarterback Trevor Lawrence — at least for a while. Lean: Florida State plus-18.

North Carolina State minus-2.5 at Syracuse, over/under: 65.5. North Carolina State might still be a touch overvalued, as it got blown out 41-7 as 17.5-point underdogs last week in its only game against a great team this season. Syracuse might still be a touch undervalued, as both of its losses came by a touchdown or less. Guess: Syracuse plus-2.5.

Wake Forest plus-3 at Louisville, over/under: 65. Bookmakers were wise to slap the standard minus-3 on the home side in a game between two equally struggling teams going nowhere fast. There’s not much of a case to be made on the field, but as pure conjecture, the Cardinals seem more likely to quit on the season than the Demon Deacons given coach Bobby Petrino’s dwindling job security. Guess: Wake Forest minus-3.

North Carolina plus-8.5 at Virginia, over/under: 51.5. Sports books are racing to catch up with the Cavaliers, which have covered in all but one game this season. They may have finally done the trick, as the thought of Virginia laying nearly double digits in an ACC game would have been preposterous at the beginning of the year. But prefer to keep riding the Cavaliers until they show they’re not capable of handling the newfound success. Guess: Virginia minus-8.5.

Big Ten

Iowa plus-6.5 at Penn State, over/under: 51.5. Penn State is far more explosive, but Iowa is the top defense in the nation in preventing explosive plays per the S&P+ ratings. The analytics simply don’t see much separation between these two teams to merit one laying a touchdown over the other, with Penn State at No. 12 in the F/+ ratings and Iowa at No. 13. Play: Iowa plus-6.5.

Indiana minus-2.5 at Minnesota, over/under: 54. A promising season for the Golden Gophers, in which they started 3-0 straight-up and against the spread, has come untracked with four consecutive defeats. It’s not typically to stand in the way of an unraveling, but coach P.J. Fleck is too proven not to attempt to buy low. Lean: Minnesota plus-2.5.

Wisconsin minus-7 at Northwestern, over/under: 53. It’s curious that a couple Vegas sports books are still dealing the full touchdown, when most offshore markets have moved the line all the way to Wisconsin minus-4.5. It’s practically a requirement to jump on what the market indicates is strong value. Lean: Northwestern plus-7.

Purdue plus-2 at Michigan State, over/under: 49. Purdue is in a classic letdown spot coming off of 49-20 upset win over Ohio State, but part of the appeal of that situation is the market over-correcting and bloating a team’s value. That doesn’t appear to have happened here as the Boilermakers have been so much more efficient than the Spartans on the year — gaining 6.9 yards per play to Michigan State’s 4.8 — that they shouldn’t be getting any points. Guess: Purdue plus-2.

Illinois plus-17.5 at Maryland, over/under: 52.5. Big number isn’t as imposing as usual when considering the sorry state of the Illini program. Illinois has lost 60 percent of its Big Ten games under coach Lovie Smith by more than 17.5 points. Guess: Maryland minus-17.5.

Big 12

Texas minus-3.5 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 61.5. The Cowboys coming in as a home underdog seems short-sighted, as they’ve struggled in losing three of their last four but are every bit as strong as the Longhorns when accounting for the season as a whole. The teams have an identical 5.2 yards per play surrendered on defense, but Oklahoma State has put up 6.2 yards per play on offense to Texas’ 5.3. Play: Oklahoma State plus-3.5.

Kansas State plus-24.5 at Oklahoma, over/under: 64. The Sooners had their best defensive game of the season in last week’s 52-27 win over TCU as 7.5-point favorites after firing coordinator Mike Stoops. If their defense can play at a slightly above average level for the rest of the season, then they’re a real threat to win every game easily and reach the College Football Playoff as the Big 12 champion. Lean: Oklahoma minus-24.5.

TCU minus-13.5 at Kansas, over/under: 49. Despite four straight losses against the spread, the Horned Frogs are still stocked with young talent that could make strides as the season winds down. They’re also second-to-last in the nation with a minus-10 turnover margin that should see some positive regression. Guess: TCU minus-13.5.

Texas Tech plus-4 at Iowa State, over/under: 56. A perennial overachiever, Iowa State is now 19-5 against the spread in the Big 12 under coach Matt Campbell — but the Cyclones were favored in only three of those games. It’s a different situation when the expectations are raised, especially against a team playing as well as Texas Tech, which has covered in five of its last six games. Guess: Texas Tech plus-4.

Pac-12

Arizona State plus-6.5 at Southern California, over/under: 54.5. Already lighter than usual on depth, USC is extremely banged up coming out of a 41-28 loss at Utah as 7-point favorites. Arizona State also had a couple extra days to prepare, which only pads the coaching advantage for Herm Edwards against USC’s Clay Helton. Play: Arizona State plus-6.5.

Oregon minus-10 at Arizona, over/under: 65.5. Looking for spots to fade Oregon, which became perceived as a contender on the faulty basis of one win over Washington in which it was outgained by more than 1.5 yards per play. Laying 10 points on the road should be out of the question when it comes to the Ducks. Lean: Arizona plus-10.

Washington State plus-3 at Stanford, over/under: 53.5. This is just a terrible spot for the Cougars coming off of such a momentous win last week. Running back Bryce Love, last year’s Heisman runner-up, is expected to return from injury for the Cardinal and could chew up yards against the Cougars’ lone weakness — they’re run defense ranks 81^st in the nation by S&P+. Guess: Stanford minus-3.

Oregon State plus-25 at Colorado, over/under: 62.5. Colorado remains overvalued from a 5-0 straight-up, 4-1 against the spread start to the season that was forged against a terrible schedule. The Buffaloes have never given this many points on the betting line in a Pac-12 contest. Guess: Oregon State plus-25.

Washington minus-11.5 at California, over/under: 45. No team in the nation has been more frustrating to back than Washington, which has statistically outperformed its final score in almost every game. At some point, it should swing the other way and the Huskies should start pocketing the blowouts they deserve. Guess: Washington minus-11.5.

Utah minus-10.5 at UCLA, over/under: 54.5. Both teams have looked vastly improved over the last three weeks, with the Utes blowing out three straight opponents and the Bruins’ only loss a touchdown-setback against Washington. Utah has the ability to make it four straight lopsided wins, but it’s a red flag that nearly 90 percent of the action is on a team laying double digits on the road. Guess: UCLA plus-10.5.

SEC

Texas A&M plus-2 at Mississippi State, over/under: 43.5. Teams are comparable on offense — Texas A&M has averaged 5.7 yards per play against FBS opponents to Mississippi State’s 5.5 —but not on defense — Mississippi State has given up only 4.4 yards per play to Texas A&M’s 5.7. It’s important for bettors not to hold grudges against teams, and therefore forfeit future opportunities, even after a massive letdown like Mississippi State last week. Play: Mississippi State minus-2.

Vanderbilt minus-2 at Arkansas, over/under: 53. Vanderbilt appears to have regressed as the season has gone on, losing three straight and five of its last six. The opposite might be true of Arkansas, which has shown signs of life in covering in four straight and picking up its first win since week 1 in a 23-0 pasting of Tulsa as 7-point favorites last week. Lean: Arkansas plus-2.

Florida plus-7 vs. Georgia in Jacksonville, over/under: 52. There’s a temptation to buy low on the Bulldogs after they bottomed up in a 36-16 loss at LSU as 7-point favorites, but the price tag is a little too high. Florida’s defense is too stout to let Georgia pull away prematurely. Guess: Florida plus-7.

Tennessee plus-7.5 at South Carolina, over/under: 54.5. Both teams are overvalued, as South Carolina’s best win of the year came in a game where it was thoroughly outplayed by Missouri and Tennessee has put up exactly one strong performance, a 30-24 win over Auburn. But the home team is coming off of a bye while the visitors have faced Alabama and Auburn over the last two weeks. Guess: South Carolina minus-7.5.

Kentucky plus-7 at Missouri, over/under: 54.5. Might appear to be a high price to play, but this seems like a nightmare matchup for the Wildcats. Defensively, they haven’t seen a quarterback that can throw as efficiently as Drew Lock all season. Offensively, they can only run the ball and the Tigers’ have the fourth-rated rush defense in the nation by the S&P+ ratings. Guess: Missouri minus-7.

AAC

South Florida plus-7.5 at Houston, over/under: 75. South Florida might be the weakest 7-0 team ever, as it’s won more than half of its game by a touchdown or less and had weekly struggles with bottom-feeders. The Bulls are certain to lose their first game this week, but the only drawback with the Cougars is the extremely high asking price. Lean: Houston minus-7.5.

Tulane plus-2 at Tulsa, over/under: 49.5. Some turmoil may be brewing at Tulsa with fans calling for coach Phillip Montgomery’s job after six straight losses. Things aren’t going smoothly for Tulane either as the Green Wave have lost four of five but there appears to be unification with coach Willie Fritz, who’s 17-13-1 against the spread with the team. Lean: Tulane plus-2.

Massachusetts minus-4.5 at Connecticut, over/under: 65.5. Total yards is not an incredibly useful statistic, but there’s something morbidly fascinating about the Huskies having been outgained by 1,873 yards on the season. That makes the Minutemen getting outgained by 622 yards — in one more game, no less — almost look commendable. Guess: Massachusetts minus-4.5.

CUSA

Louisiana Tech plus-3.5 at Florida Atlantic, over/under: 58. The Owls have been among the most underwhelming teams in the nation at 3-4 straight-up, 1-6 against the spread but they still have enough talent that they could come on at any minute. That knowledge should be enough to back them here, especially considering they shaped up as around a two-touchdown favorite in this game at the start of the season. Lean: Florida Atlantic minus-3.5.

Cincinnati minus-9 at Southern Methodist, over/under: 50.5. Not a good spot situationally for the Bearcats, which must regroup after a devastating 24-17 overtime loss to Temple that ruined their perfect record, but it’s hard to ignore their talent edge. Cincinnati has some big-time players, especially along the defensive line where Cortez Broughton and Marquise Copeland could spell trouble for the Mustangs. Guess: Cincinnati minus-9.

Middle Tennessee minus-4 at Old Dominion, over/under: 59.5. Old Dominion has been a yard per play better on offense; Middle Tennessee has been a yard per play better on defense. This is too many points, especially for a road team to lay, in a game that looks this evenly matched. Guess: Old Dominion plus-4.

Rice plus-29 at North Texas, over/under: 55.5. The Mean Green remain a bet-on team despite two disappointing losses, to Louisiana Tech and UAB, in their last four games. North Texas was the more efficient team in both contests but struggled with finishing drives and turnovers — two areas that can easily reverse. Guess: North Texas minus-29.

Florida International minus-3 at Western Kentucky, over/under: 54. Florida International has overachieved at 5-2 straight-up and against the spread largely because of great coaching by Butch Davis. Western Kentucky has underachieved largely because of questionable coaching by Mike Sanford. Always prefer to take the better coach — even if it means paying a premium. Guess: Florida International minus-3.

Southern Miss minus-7.5 at Charlotte, over/under: 43. The 49ers have looked like a new team over the last two weeks, combining to outgain Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee by 1.5 yards per play. It’s not wise to overreact to recent performances, but when this many points are involved, grabbing them and hoping a team can maintain a newfound efficiency isn’t a bad idea either. Guess: Charlotte plus-7.5.

UAB minus-16 at UTEP, over/under: 50.5. Neither the Blazers nor the Miners have failed to cover a point spread since week 4. Only the former, however, is coming off of a massive win as UAB’s 29-21 victory over North Texas as a 1-point favorite might be its best since the program restarted last year. A slight letdown would be natural. Guess: UTEP plus-16.

Independents

Navy plus-23.5 vs. Notre Dame in San Diego, over/under: 54.5. Navy has failed to cover in five straight games, yet continues to get respect on the betting line based on the program’s name-value. The Midshipmen have struggled mightily at 2-5 straight-up, 1-6 against the spread despite not encountering any teams remotely as strong as the Irish (7-0 straight-up, 4-3 against the spread). Guess: Notre Dame minus-23.5.

MAC

Army minus-1 at Eastern Michigan, over/under: 48. All the money is on Army — the spread opened at Eastern Michigan minus-2 — but it’s hard to figure out why. The Eagles have been more efficient on both sides of the ball, and the Black Knights have one of their biggest games of the year, against Air Force, on deck. Play: Eastern Michigan plus-1.

Northern Illinois plus-7.5 at BYU, over/under: 42.5. Here’s the weekly strategy of taking points in the game with the lowest total on the board. It’s a tough trip for the Huskies, but these teams are both hard-pressed to score and evenly-matched, making anything more than a touchdown extremely generous. Lean: Northern Illinois plus-7.5.

Central Michigan plus-4.5 at Akron, over/under: 45. Neither the Chippewas nor the Zips have covered a game in the month of October. Neither the Chippewas nor the Zips are averaging more than 4.5 yards per play against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents. Must take the points in a game where there won’t be many of them. Guess: Central Michigan plus-4.5.

MWC

Wyoming plus-2 at Colorado State, over/under: 46. Not in the market to lay points with Colorado State under any circumstance. The Rams are mediocre to horrendous in every area, whereas the Cowboys at least have one strength, and it’s a strength that could come in handy here. Wyoming is in the nation’s top 25 in giving up only 6.3 yards per pass attempt. Lean: Wyoming plus-2.

San Diego State minus-2.5 at UNR, over/under: 47.5. Wolf Pack’s typically high-powered offense has shown a tendency to slow down dramatically against stiffer defenses like Fresno State and Vanderbilt, where they combined to put up 13 points. Only giving up 4.5 yards per play on the year, the Aztecs’ defense could be the best they encounter. Lean: San Diego State minus-2.5.

Hawaii plus-24 at Fresno State, over/under: 59.5. Not to be repetitive but Fresno State is now 18-2 against the spread, including 11-1 in conference play, under coach Jeff Tedford. There’s no reason to stop rolling with the Bulldogs against a Warriors’ team that’s now failed to cover in six of their last seven and looks worn down from their notoriously trying travel schedule. Guess: Fresno State minus-24.

New Mexico plus-20.5 at Utah State, over/under: 63.5. Wyoming may have presented the way to defend Utah State last week, as the Aggies failed to cover for the first time this year and were fortunate to escape Laramie, Wyo., with a 24-16 win. Utah State was outgained by 137 yards, and though it’s not wise to overreact to one game, it means something when being asked to give nearly three touchdowns. Guess: New Mexico plus-20.5.

UNLV plus-2 at San Jose State, over/under: 59.5. San Jose State is winless, but has shown steady improvement throughout the year. UNLV has a pair of victories, but they were against UTEP and Prairie View and the Rebels have looked worse as the season has progressed. Guess: San Jose State minus-2.

Boise State minus-9 at Air Force, over/under: 58. Dipping below double digits — the line opened at minus-10 — makes the favorite the pick in a tough game to handicap. The Broncos are erratic, but have more than enough firepower to blow out the Falcons if they’re properly engaged. Guess: Boise State minus-9.

SBC

New Mexico State plus-2.5 at Texas State, over/under: 55. The Bobcats were the only play to come through for Talking Points last week, and may still be undervalued by virtue of going an unlucky 0-3 in games decided by less than a touchdown this season. They’re frisky on defense, and only getting better behind a two-deep littered with underclassmen. Lean: Texas State minus-2.5.

Arkansas State minus-3 at Louisiana-Lafayette, over/under: 70.5. New coach Billy Napier has overachieved in his first season with the Rajun Cajuns, including covering in each of their last four games, but they’re still far behind the Red Wolves in talent. Going to take a shot on buying low with an Arkansas State team that beat Lafayette 47-3 as 12-point favorites a year ago. Guess: Arkansas State minus-3.

Coastal Carolina minus-4 at Georgia State, over/under: 59. Both teams’ starting quarterbacks are questionable, but Coastal Carolina’s Kilton Anderson might be more of a concern. A pair of freshmen are behind Anderson on the depth chart, and one of them potentially laying points on the road is a big ask. Guess: Georgia State plus-4.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.