Why this year’s unpredictable Final Four field is desirable to sports books

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, April 5, 2019 | 2 a.m.

No Duke, no North Carolina. No consensus top-five NBA Draft picks, no 247 Sports five-star recruiting prospects.

A Final Four with a relative lack of blueblood programs and star power like this year’s may have resulted in a decrease in local betting action in past years. There will be no such concern, however, when this year's national semifinals tip off at 3 p.m. Saturday in Minneapolis on CBS.

“The tournament and sports betting have become so big that you’re going to see an increase in handle industry-wide regardless,” said Chuck Esposito, Sunset Station race and sports book director.

Sports books, therefore, have no reservations over a national semifinal field consisting of Michigan State, Texas Tech, Virginia and Auburn, a group of teams that have only combined for only two national championships all-time — both by the Spartans. In fact, most shops prefer it.

It’s impossible to speak for every sports book statewide, but it’s doubtful that most face significant losses in the futures market on any of these teams. None of them drove enough wagers during the season.

Station Casinos, for one, expunged any of its remaining futures liability in the Elite 8.

“We’re in good shape on all four,” Esposito said. “You go back to the start of the tournament and there was just so much talk about Duke and North Carolina, and, ‘What if these two schools could meet a fourth time in the national championship game?’”

Other sports books saw the same sentiment. At the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, North Carolina was the most popular choice to win the tournament on Selection Sunday, taking the betting-action baton from Gonzaga via Duke.

In other words, each No. 1 seed took its turn as the betting public’s figurative flavor of the week — except for Virginia, the No. 1 seed that ended up advancing the farthest.

“They’ve got this stigma of a choking team,” Westgate Las Vegas Superbook Manager Ed Salmons said at the start of the tournament. “It might take a while for the public to get past that.”

Gamblers may still not be past the reputation, which was cemented when the Cavaliers lost in the round of 64 to No. 16 UMBC as 22.5-point favorites last year. A rough first-half against another No. 16 seed, Gardner-Webb, and an overtime escape against Purdue in the Elite 8 have bettors continuing to be wary of Virginia.

Although it’s the Final Four favorite, at plus-120 (risking $1 to win $1.20) at Station Casinos, Virginia is not attracting much support. The only Final Four team bettors appeared fully behind midway through the week at Station was Michigan State, which is down to plus-160 to win the title.

“I think that’s for one reason and one reason only, and that’s (coach) Tom Izzo,” Esposito said. “You give Izzo the extra time to prepare and he’s known as such a good Xs and Os coach that you think they’re going to be tough to beat.”

There’s still plenty of time to get the money more balanced, but as of now, it appears bookmakers will be Red Raiders’ fans Saturday night with Michigan State minus-2.5 the most popular bet on the board. Needing Texas Tech has worked out well for the house in its last two games.

William Hill sports books had more money and tickets on Texas Tech’s opponent in both the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, including a whopping 94 percent of the money on Gonzaga minus-4 last weekend. Texas Tech prevailed 75-69 in the first of four regional final games that all came down to the wire, including two that went into overtime.

The excitement evident in casinos throughout the Elite 8 probably did more to boost the Final Four betting outlook than the traditional method of getting the highest-profile teams and players could have.

“I don’t think myself or any of our guests had any fingernails left after those games,” Esposito said. “It was just unbelievable, and the action in all of our race and sports books was just crazy last week. We can’t wait to do it again.”

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.