Countdown to college football: Picking every Big Ten team’s win total

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, Aug. 27, 2019 | 2 a.m.

The Big Ten’s imbalance of power persists.

Ever since the conference announced its 14-team expansion and revealed new divisions five years ago, fans raised concerns over the equality of the two sets of teams. If anything, the fears have turned out even worse than anticipated.

The East division — with perennial powers Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State — has won all five conference championship games against the West division including Ohio State’s 45-24 stomping of Northwestern as 14-point favorites last year. The outlook isn’t much better this season.

Some oddsmakers’ power ratings have the top four teams — who else but the aforementioned four — all in the East. Michigan State and usual West champion Wisconsin are virtually even considering the latter lays 3 points to the former in an October home game but that just further illustrates the divide.

The disparity makes the Big Ten a unique league to preview as Talking Points continues its countdown to college football series looking at every team’s win total.

Read below for a pick on all 14 Big Ten teams, and look back on the first eight installments here.

Indiana

Total: 6.5 (plus-120, minus-140)

Last Year: 5-7 straight-up, 5-7 against the spread

The Hoosiers may have quietly narrowed the still-wide gap between themselves and their division-mate powerhouses last year. They went 3-1 against the spread versus Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State, losing only by an average of 13 points per game. Most of their key players are back including quarterback Peyton Ramsey, who may not even win the starting job over freshman Michael Penix. That shows an upgraded talent in the third year under coach Tom Allen. The win total is on the right number, making the plus-money the pick.

Guess: Over 6.5 wins at plus-120

Maryland

Total: 3.5 (minus-145, plus-125)

Last Year: 5-7 straight-up, 6-6 against the spread

Here’s an all-too-necessary reminder that New Mexico was probably the worst team in the nation under new Maryland coach Mike Locksley, who went 2-26 straight-up, 11-17 against the spread before getting fired early in his third season. A brief, successful run as offensive coordinator at Alabama doesn’t absolve Locksley of all that went wrong in Albuquerque, N.M., which extended off the field. The Terrapins are an immediate bet-against in all markets.

Play: Under 3.5 wins at plus-125

Michigan

Total: 10.5 (plus-130, minus-150)

Last Year: 10-3 straight-up, 6-7 against the spread

Seems like a high asking price considering Michigan has never eclipsed 10 wins under coach Jim Harbaugh — and that’s including bowl season. Maybe they’ve been leaving wins on the board with a misguided strategy, though. It could be argued that Michigan hasn’t harnessed its inherent talent advantage to the right extent the last few years, as it’s played at one of the slowest paces in the nation, which increases variance. That should change this year with new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis arriving. If Gattis can get the best out of senior quarterback Shea Patterson — who’s played well but not quite up to the level of his five-star recruiting background — then the Wolverines could crash the College Football Playoff. The schedule is difficult, however, and it’s been 13 years since Michigan won more than 10 regular-season games.

Guess: Under 10.5 wins at minus-150

Michigan State

Total: 8 (minus-130, plus-110)

Last Year: 7-6 straight-up, 4-9 against the spread

The Spartans are not reaching the Big Ten Championship Game this year. They’re also not failing to become bowl eligible. This is the conference’s proverbial low-ceiling, high-floor team. Get ready for a schedule full of games with scores like 17-14 or 24-20 that come down to the wire. Michigan State might have the conference’s best defense with a particularly strong front led by edge rusher Kenny Willekes. The Spartans are experienced on both sides of the ball, but the offense lacked explosiveness last season and that’s not an area where there’s typically a drastic turnaround. Michigan State looks like an 8-4 team, just as the win total pegs.

Guess: Under 8 wins at plus-110

Ohio State

Total: 10 (minus-110, plus-110)

Last Year: 13-1 straight-up, 7-7 against the spread

Everyone loves to latch onto a perceived drop-off with a perennial power. Ohio State is this year’s popular pick to cede their perch atop the college football world, as its future odds have inflated over the course of the summer with its win total price deflating. It all seems a little premature. Yes, Ohio State has a new coach in Ryan Day — though he filled in to start last season — and loses a lot of experience — especially on offense. But think about the consistency one must fade to bet against the Buckeyes. They haven’t dipped under 10 regular season wins in seven years and have only done it once in the last 13 seasons. Ohio State has also won three of the last five Big Ten championships, and probably had the best team in the other two years where circumstances kept it out of the title game. The Buckeyes still have the most talent in the conference.

Lean: Over 10 wins at minus-110

Penn State

Total: 8.5 (plus-110, minus-130)

Last Year: 9-4 straight-up, 7-6 against the spread

This might not be coach James Franklin’s best team at Penn State, but it’s his most decorated. The Nittany Lions will start blue-chip recruits at nearly every position, including the glamour spots with sophomore quarterback Sean Clifford and sophomore running back Ricky Slade having the opportunity to field one of the nation’s best offenses. They’re young, but they have a chance to get comfortable as at least two-touchdown favorites in each of their first five games. Make no mistake: The Big Ten East is a four-team race even though the future odds have the Nittany Lions as high as plus-750 and a cut below Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State.

Play: Over 8.5 wins at plus-110

Rutgers

Total: 3 (minus-120, Even)

Last Year: 1-11 straight-up, 7-5 against the spread

The truest casualty of the lopsided East division is the Scarlet Knights, which find it virtually impossible to compete even in their best seasons. There’s no indication this is going to be one of their best seasons. Rutgers gained 4.1 yards per play last season, the worst in the nation among Power Five conference teams, with returning quarterback Arthur Sitkowski throwing four touchdowns to 18 interceptions. The defense was a little better — it was only fourth-worst in the Big Ten in giving up 5.6 yards per play — but loses most of its best players. It would be hard for both Rutgers and Maryland to go under — one gets a guaranteed win against the other and they both play Football Championship Subdivision opponents — but they appear so far behind the rest of the East division that there’s not any other choice.

Play: Under 3 wins at Even money

Illinois

Total: 4.5 (minus-110, minus-110)

Last Year: 4-8 straight-up, 5-7 against the spread

Illinois has yet to go over its win total in three seasons with coach Lovie Smith at the helm, and there’s not much reason to believe this will be the year. The Illini’s defense was easily the worst in the Big Ten last year, giving up 7 yards per play, so it’s debatable how much of an advantage really lies in returning virtually everyone on that side of the ball. This is the highest win total Smith has been asked to conquer despite having gone 4-23 straight-up, 10-17 against the spread against the Big Ten so far in his tenure.

Lean: Under 4.5 wins at minus-110

Iowa

Total: 7.5 (minus-140, plus-120)

Last Year: 9-4 straight-up, 8-5 against the spread

Sometimes bettors are like children — they reach for the shiny new toy over the old reliable one. That’s the only way to explain Iowa being mostly ignored in the futures market compared with West division rivals like Nebraska and Purdue. Other than Wisconsin, no team has been a more annual factor than Iowa and there’s no reason that should change this year. Note the use of “factor” and not “winner.” The Hawkeyes’ schedule will almost surely keep them out of the Big Ten Championship Game as they face both division favorites Wisconsin and Nebraska on the road and must also travel to Michigan. But with one of the conference’s most dependable quarterbacks in Nate Stanley and a consistently stingy defense, there’s not much of a chance they slip to the bottom half of the West division.

Lean: Over 7.5 wins at minus-140

Minnesota

Total: 7.5 (minus-130, plus-110)

Last Year: 7-6 straight-up, 8-5 against the spread

The Golden Gophers might have deserved more credit for last year’s season than they received. They topped expectations despite fielding one of the youngest teams in the nation. Now the experience flips as they rank in the top 10 in the country in returning production, per S&P+, and should be competitive in every game. They might need one more year before challenging for a conference title, though. P.J. Fleck’s rebuild of the program has so far resembled the job he did at Western Michigan, which saw only modest gains from year 2 to year 3 — which he enters at Minnesota this season — before a full-fledged breakthrough in year four.

Guess: Under 7.5 wins at plus-110

Nebraska

Total: 8.5 (minus-130, plus-110)

Last Year: 4-8 straight-up, 6-5-1 against the spread

Second-year coach Scott Frost is going to need to be a miracle worker to live up to the bar the betting market is setting for him. Excitement over the Cornhuskers has them as the favorite to win the West division, at plus-220, and the third most-likely national championship winner, at 30-to-1, out of all the conference teams. This is where a reminder is important to note that Nebraska has gone 4-8 straight-up in the last two years. Still, it’s easy to see what the bettors are buying into. Frost improved Nebraska drastically by the end of last year and its record was misleading considering a 1-4 mark in games decided by less than a touchdown. By efficiency metrics, the Cornhuskers deserved to go 7-5 — and getting to at least 9-3 would mean another sizable leap.

Lean: Under 8.5 wins at plus-110

Northwestern

Total: 6 (minus-140, plus-120)

Last Year: 9-5 straight-up, 7-5-2 against the spread

One of the close games Nebraska inexplicably blew last year came to Northwestern, which prevailed 34-31 in overtime. The Wildcats used regular close-game magic to reach their first Big Ten Championship Game, going 5-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Northwestern is one of the few teams where it’s not wise to count on close-game luck regressing, though. Coach Pat Fitzgerald has performed exceedingly well in such contests for 13 straight seasons, and now has posted enough of a sample size to be regarded as one of college football’s most undervalued coaches. He’s also posted winning records against the spread in four straight seasons. It doesn’t pay to fade Northwestern.

Lean: Northwestern over 6 wins at minus-140

Purdue

Total: 7 (plus-110, minus-130)

Last Year: 6-7 straight-up, 7-6 against the spread

Six of the seven teams in the West division can count experience, in one form or another, as a benefit going into the season. Purdue is the exception. The Boilermakers bring less returning production than any team in the conference, which is an even bigger challenge for a program that’s unable to recruit at the highest level. Jeff Brohm has exceeded expectations in each of his first two years, however, and might be the most innovative coach in the Big Ten. Getting more than seven wins would require his best coaching job yet.

Play: Under 7 wins at minus-130

Wisconsin

Total: 8 (minus-130, plus-110)

Last Year: 8-5 straight-up, 4-9 against the spread

Don’t overreact to one down year. The Badgers have won 10 games in four of the last six seasons with similarly structured teams — run-first teams that are massive up front and strong defensively — and have another squad that fits the prototype again in 2019. Junior Jonathan Taylor is one of the best running backs in the country and the defense should be back to its normal ways after regressing largely due to injuries last year. Wisconsin has won the West division in three of five years since the Big Ten realigned — and gotten to the conference championship game in five of eight years overall — meaning no one else deserves to be favored this season.

Play: Over 8 wins at minus-130

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.