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Thursday, Dec. 5, 2019 | 2 a.m.
Seahawks or 49ers? Cowboys or Eagles?
Those are practically the only two questions left to answer as it pertains to NFL division titles — at least by the odds. Even though the NFC South is the only one officially clinched — the New Orleans Saints locked it up by defeating the Atlanta Falcons 26-18 as 7-point favorites on Thanksgiving — every other division has a favorite of at least minus-400 (risking $4 to win $1) at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
The NFC West is a straight pick'em at Circa sports books with the Seahawks and 49ers holding mirroring 10-2 records. Seattle currently has the tiebreaker based on its 27-24 Week 10 victory at San Francisco as 6-point underdogs, but it's going to come down to the final four games, including a Week 17 rematch.
Dallas is a little safer in the NFC East, currently sitting as a minus-230 (risking $2.30 to win $1) favorite to Philadelphia's plus-190 (risking $1 to win $1.90). The Cowboys are a game ahead of the Eagles — with the teams at 6-6 and 5-7 straight-up, respectively — but they're on a collision course for Week 16 in Philadelphia.
Eyes will be glued to those two races for the final month of the season, but there's plenty of other things to be decided — especially if you're picking every game like I'll continue to do in this column. After going 8-8 last week, the overall record on the year stands at 108-83-1.
Read below for picks on every Week 14 game, separated into three confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side.
Plays (32-18-1)
Los Angeles Rams plus-1 vs. Seattle Seahawks The Rams stand at 0.9 net yards per play; the Seahawks are at 0.1 net yard per play. They also have virtually identical point differentials with the Seahawks at plus-36 to the Rams' plus-33. Now is the time to start selling high on the Seahawks.
Atlanta Falcons minus-2.5 vs. Carolina Panthers Good luck finding a single metric that rates the Panthers out as a better team than the Falcons at this point of the season. This line, therefore, is flawed and should close on the other side of 3.
Oakland Raiders plus-3 vs. Tennessee Titans Can't expect the Titans to be at their best considering it's been more than a year since they've traveled to play a game in Pacific Standard Time. Two weeks ago, the Raiders would have been more than a field-goal favorite in this spot, and even two blowout losses to the Jets and Chiefs shouldn't push this spread this far.
Pittsburgh Steelers minus-2.5 at Arizona Cardinals Pittsburgh continues to be a bet-on team behind undervalued Devlin "Duck" Hodges, who "has not killed" the Steelers unlike predecessor Mason Rudolph. Jump on Pittsburgh for at least one more week before the market properly adjusts.
Leans (37-32)
San Francisco 49ers plus-3 at New Orleans Saints Homefield advantage should be minimized with the 49ers wisely cutting down on their travel and staying on the East Coast in between games for the second time this season. The Superdome is quite literally the only advantage the Saints have on the 49ers, which have been the more efficient team all season.
Denver Broncos plus-9.5 at Houston Texans This would have been a play at plus-10, but those disappeared off the board pretty quickly. The Broncos' defense should keep them in the game, but their offense is more of a wild card, so it might be better to exercise caution.
New England Patriots minus-3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Traditionally, these are the types of spots where the Patriots rally off a loss that has the takes about them not being a true contender roll in. New England still has the perfect defensive personnel to limit Patrick Mahomes and the best technician in football, coach Bill Belichick, to scheme around a Kansas City defense with glaring holes.
Guesses (39-31)
Dallas Cowboys minus-3 at Chicago Bears Both teams are a mess at the moment — making it advisable to not get involved here — but most indicators point toward Dallas having a better chance of turning its season around. The Cowboys' point differential is 70 points better than the Bears' — plus-74 to plus-4 — and they've had far worse turnover luck.
Cleveland Browns minus-8.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals The Browns have a long injury report but most of the listed players — including quarterback Baker Mayfield with his hand injury — don't appear to be hurt severely. If the Browns are close to full strength, this number looks a little short.
Washington Redskins plus-13 at Green Bay Packers Washington is bad enough to merit this large of point spreads, but its pace is a major deterrent from laying them. The Redskins have been the most deliberate team in the NFL under interim coach Bill Callahan — and the Packers don't play much faster — to add extra value to the points.
Baltimore Ravens minus-5 at Buffalo Bills I think this is a fair line, but the rest of the market clearly demurs with most offshore books holding steady at Baltimore minus-6. The number will surely close higher than 5, so snagging closing line value with the best team in the NFL is the way to go right now.
New York Jets minus-5.5 vs. Miami Dolphins The Jets were a 7.5-point favorite over the Dolphins in last week's look-ahead line. A two-point move over key numbers is too much of a reaction to the Jets' 22-7 loss at Cincinnati as 3-point favorites and the Dolphins' 37-31 win over the Eagles as 10-point underdogs.
Jacksonville Jaguars plus-3.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers Two of the most torturous things imaginable in NFL betting — Laying 3.5 points and backing the Chargers. I'm not in the mood for torture.
Minnesota Vikings minus-13 vs. Detroit Lions David Blough caught the Bears off-guard on Thanksgiving to keep the Lions competitive, but the Vikings should be more prepared with film on the Purdue rookie. Buy signs are on Minnesota in general as it's one of the best teams in the NFL and not quite priced like it.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus-2.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts There's nothing more to this pick than pocketing a good number. Every prominent sports book in the world is at Tampa Bay minus-3, which seems fair and leaves no reason for a few Las Vegas shops to be straying.
New York Giants plus-9.5 at Philadelphia Eagles A rested Eli Manning might be an upgrade from a banged-up Daniel Jones at quarterback for the Giants. The Eagles only have two wins by double digits this season, and in their current form, they shouldn't be counted on for another.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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