Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 16 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Dec. 19, 2019 | 2 a.m.

It might be the most anticipated matchup between struggling opponents of the last several years in the NFL.

Even as the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles spent most of the last month and a half mired in prolonged slumps, excitement built for their Week 16 matchup. It finally comes at 1:25 p.m. Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.

Dallas is currently a 2.5-point favorite in the game highly likely to end the battle of futility that's been the NFC East divisional race. The Cowboys will officially emerge as NFC East champions if they win, while the Eagles would need to defeat the Giants next week to finish the job.

Both teams sit at 7-7 straight-up on the season, far below where many slotted them coming into the year.

Performing below expectations has made both teams a punching bag of ridicule, but truth be told, they've both been fairly unlucky. The Cowboys are 0-5 in games decided by seven points or less; the Eagles are a more reasonable 3-4 but have arguably been the most injured team in the NFL.

None of that past suffering will matter much come Sunday evening. The winner will be in position to reach playoffs anyway.

Read below for my pick on Dallas at Philadelphia, as well as all the other games on the Week 16 betting board. The overall record for the year stands at 123-98-3 after a disappointing 6-9-1 last week. Picks are separated into three confidence categories with lines being the best currently available locally on the chosen side.

Plays (37-21-1)

Cincinnati Bengals plus-1 at Miami Dolphins I don't buy the narrative that Cincinnati will be trying to lose this game for a number of reasons. The Bengals have a two-game cushion to get the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, for one thing, and their players are fighting for long-term jobs and unlikely to fold. Cincinnati is far enough ahead of Miami by any set of analytical-based power ratings that it should be a slight favorite.

Detroit Lions plus-7 at Denver Broncos Drew Lock needs to be definitively better than David Blough in this matchup of rookie quarterbacks for this line to be justified. With only three starts apiece — where Blough has faced the tougher slate of opposing defenses — it's too early to make that claim.

New York Jets plus-3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers A lot of questionables and doubtfuls on the injury report are turning into probables for the Jets this week, including difference-makers edge rusher Quinnen Williams and defensive back Jamal Adams, to give them an understated boost. This is one of the two lowest totals on the board, at over/under 38, to make the points more valuable.

Leans (41-35)

New York Giants plus-2.5 at Washington Redskins Washington remains mostly reliant on its running, and New York's rush defense is the strength of its team. The Giants sit fifth in the NFL in giving up only 3.9 yards per rushing attempt.

Atlanta Falcons minus-7 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Pocket a good number now, as this is headed to minus-7.5, and the move makes sense. While Atlanta is playing its best of the season, Jacksonville had been accused of quitting on the season before last week's 20-16 win at Oakland in a game it was fortunate to win as the less efficient team.

Los Angeles Rams plus-6.5 at San Francisco 49ers San Francisco should still win this game, but it's hard to pay a premium on it right now with mounting and debilitating defensive injuries. Pounce on the Rams in the off-chance they reach plus-7.

New England Patriots minus-6.5 vs. Buffalo Bills This is a half-point fewer than the spread New England laid on the road at Buffalo earlier this year — and nearly covered in a 16-10 win. Sure, the Patriots' offense may have gotten worse since then but its defense has maintained the same high level so it's hard to accept them being on this side of 7.

Minnesota Vikings minus-5 vs. Green Bay Packers It's too bad the Vikings can't win the NFC North even with a victory here — they'd also need a victory next week over the Bears and a Packers' loss to the Lions — because they've been a better team than the Packers in all facets. This spread may raise, but Minnesota is the right side up to minus-6.5.

Arizona Cardinals plus-9.5 at Seattle Seahawks I'd suggest waiting it out to get plus-10 on the Cardinals — which is already available offshore — but they seem likely to keep this game close. Arizona's offense, and particularly quarterback Kyler Murray, has made major strides as the season has progressed while Seattle's home-field advantage has decreased over recent years.

Guesses (45-42-2)

Los Angeles Chargers minus-6.5 vs. Oakland Raiders Want to get real frisky for this game? This presents a highly unusual situation where some sports books are still at 6.5 while others have moved all the way to 7.5. That creates a valuable middle opportunity considering the right number on is probably Chargers minus-7.     

Tennessee Titans plus-3 vs. New Orleans Saints Don't pay a premium to back a team off of its best performance of the season. The Saints are off their best performance of the season in bludgeoning the Colts 34-7 as an 8-point favorite on Monday Night Football, leaving them on a short week.

Cleveland Browns plus-10 vs. Baltimore Ravens The lookahead line last week was only Baltimore minus-7, and there's no way Cleveland's 38-24 loss to Arizona as 3-point favorites was worth that large of a shift. That being said, Baltimore is an outlier and there's no reason no bet against outliers against bad teams at this point of the season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-3 vs. Houston Texans It's hard to back Tampa considering it has no receivers but this number opened at Buccaneers minus-1, meaning the value on Houston created by injuries has disappeared. The Texans may still be the right side at minus-3, but the spread may be headed to 3.5, where the Buccaneers would be an easier pick.

Carolina Panthers plus-7 at Indianapolis Colts The Panthers are gaining 5.2 yards per play and giving up 5.8 yards per play. The Colts are gaining 5.2 yards per play and giving up 5.8 yards per play. There's more volatility with Carolina switching to a new quarterback in Will Grier, but given how identical the two teams look, this line is too big.

Chicago Bears plus-6 vs. Kansas City Chiefs I probably would have taken Kansas City earlier in the week when this opened at minus-4 all the way until now. The Chiefs are at the peak of their market value after covering four straight games, which is typically a good time to sell on a team — especially one that's seen the spread move this far in their favor.  

Philadelphia Eagles plus-2.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys There's still too much injury uncertainty to confidently handicap this game but taking a leap of faith that the majority of Philadelphia's big four of hurt players — cornerback Ronald Darby, tackle Lane Johnson, receiver Nelson Agholor and running back Jordan Howard — would make it the right side. At full strength, these teams are evenly matched.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.