Betting the Super Bowl? It’s important to look beyond the quarterbacks

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Feb. 1, 2019 | 2 a.m.

Seven out of every 10 Super Bowl gamblers who have come up to a CG Technology betting window or logged onto the company’s mobile app have wagered on the New England Patriots over the Los Angeles Rams.

Many of them have done it with the same impetus: A desire to back Patriots quarterback Tom Brady over Rams quarterback Jared Goff even if it means giving 2.5 points on the spread.

“They definitely trust Brady, and that’s indicative in our props too,” CG Technology Vice President of Risk Jason Simbal said. “They’re betting all the Brady stuff, all that you would expect the everyday fan to bet — number of passes thrown by Brady over, number of completions by Brady over, touchdowns by Brady over, all that stuff. It leads into the fact that Brady is the popular name, the most famous player and they’re betting all his things.”

Based on recent Super Bowls, blindly backing the team with the better quarterback is a bad strategy. It’s likely contributed significantly to Nevada gamblers’ perennial problems against the house in the Super Bowl.

In-state bettors have lost money for 10 straight years, an average of $7.4 million, according to the Nevada Gaming Control Board. It’s a span that suitably coincides with the busting of the myth that the best quarterback always rises to the occasion in the biggest game of the year.

In the last six years alone, signal callers to ultimately hoist the Lombardi Trophy include a player who had nearly retired from lack of opportunity months earlier (Nick Foles), an on-his-way-out legend who was benched late in the season and couldn’t throw downfield (Peyton Manning) and a punchline of mediocrity (Joe Flacco).

A position that was once considered almost impossible to overvalue — no one would refute it’s the most important on the field — may now be overvalued.

“It really hasn’t been all Brady in the playoffs,” Simbal said. “People are remembering what Brady did in that last drive (against the Chiefs) where Romo called every play correctly but it was really the running game that got them there. They were able to control the first half running game and I think that’s what they’re going to do here. I actually think if the Patriots are going to win, it would be because of that. I would look more towards the Patriots rushing props as opposed to the Brady stuff if you like the Patriots.”

For all the fanfare, the 40-year-old Brady himself is only 5-3 straight-up, 3-5 against the spread in Super Bowls. And one of those wins and covers came long before he was considered the greatest of all-time, back when he was the quarterback perceived at a major disadvantage against the Rams’ Kurt Warner in 2002.

None of this is a knock on Brady. This is just a game where inhuman quarterbacks often end up looking human.

Seven of the last eight Super Bowls have now featured the quarterback with the lower QBR on the season prevailing. The exception was the Patriots’ win under Brady in Super Bowl 49, when Russell Wilson threw a game-clinching interception at the goal line.

But none of this appears to have given Brady bettors any pause.

At CG Technology, the line on Brady’s total passing yards has swelled to 296.5 yards with a 10-to-1 ratio of tickets on the over. Goff’s number is 289.5 yards, and he’s only a commanded a 2-to-1 ratio.

“And what’s even more telling is the number of bets,” Simbal said. “There are four times the total number of bets on the Brady stuff than the Goff stuff.”

Brady may well lead another game-winning drive to more than fill out one of his hands with Super Bowl rings, or even manage a championship blowout for the first time in his career. It’s all a possibility in one game; it’s just that gamblers aren’t getting the right price to make those possibilities a profitable investment.

The Rams were power-rated higher than the Patriots all season, including before and even after the conference championship games. Don’t forget that most of the sports books that take the biggest action, including CG Technology, opened the Rams as a 1-point favorite when the Super Bowl matchup was initially set.

Action flipped the point spread quickly, and quarterbacks were the biggest reason. But when it comes to Super Bowl history, that hasn’t been a strong enough reason.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.