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March 28, 2024

Countdown to college football: Picking every Mountain West team’s win total

2018 Las Vegas Bowl

Steve Marcus

Fresno State quarterback Marcus McMaryion (6) celebrates with teammates after beating Arizona State in the Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl at Sam Boyd Stadium Saturday, Dec. 15, 2018. Fresno State beat ASU 31-20.

The Rebel Room

The Sanchez Year

Mike Grimala, Ray Brewer and Case Keefer dive into a new UNLV football season, one that will be integral for the future of the program, for the first time. How can Tony Sanchez secure an extension in the last year of his contract? Where will the Rebels stand heading into playing in the new stadium next year? What's a realistic record expectation? Those are among the many questions they address.

Coaches and players from all 12 teams will parade to podiums at Green Valley Ranch Resort for Mountain West Conference media days today and Wednesday to express similar sentiments about how their groups have improved.

And, for the most part, the thoughts shared won’t be empty promises or misguided optimism, unlike so many of these events happening across the country over the last few weeks. There’s plenty looking up for the Mountain West heading into this football season.

A case could be made that this is the strongest the conference has looked in years. The Mountain West is coming off a season where virtually every metric, including RPI, rated it as the second-best Group of Five league behind the American Athletic Conference.

The Mountain West went 29-25 straight-up and 28-26 against the spread in non-conference games including 3-2 by each measure in bowl games — Boise State’s First Responder Bowl against Boston College was canceled due to weather.

It’s inherent that some teams will take a step back while others move forward but finding which programs fit into which category is the challenge.

That’s what Talking Points will attempt to do below, as the first installment in the blog’s annual countdown to college football column handicapping every team in the nation’s win total. Picks are separated in three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. The plays were profitable last year, while the overall record wound up rough.

There’s no place like home to get started, so let’s dive into the resurgent Mountain West.

Air Force

Total: 8 (over plus-130, under minus-150)

Last Year: 5-7 straight-up, 6-5-1 against the spread

The Falcons have an inordinate number of starters returning for a service academy — seven on each side of the ball — and were better than their record last year by virtue of going 2-5 in games decided by less than a touchdown. Perhaps those are reasons why they’ve been the most popular bet in the conference, as their win total opened as low as six victories last month. They might be a bet-on in games to start the season, but the asking price has gotten a little high on the win total.

Guess: Under 8 wins at minus-150

Boise State

Total: 9.5 (over minus-130, under plus-110)

Last Year: 10-3 straight-up, 7-5-1 against the spread

Boise State loses many standouts from the group that just completed three straight double-digit win seasons — including four-year starting quarterback Brett Rypien — but still recruits at a higher level than the rest of the conference. The Broncos also had several young, impact players emerge on defense last year, especially in the secondary. Their worst-case scenario appears to be 8-4, with a much better shot at the top end of their range — 11-1 or 12-0.

Lean: Over 9.5 wins at minus-130

Colorado State

Total: 3.5 (over minus-110, under minus-110)

Last Year: 3-9 straight-up, 5-7 against the spread

Everything went wrong last year, including coach Mike Bobo’s health as he was hospitalized during training camp and led the way from the press box at the beginning of the season. That’s usually the precursor to a rebound, but problems persist in Fort Collins, Colo. The Rams have the second fewest returners in the conference and project as double-digit underdogs on seven occasions. Still, swallowing hard and buying low might be the wisest option considering the extenuating circumstances of the 2018 season.

Lean: Over 3.5 wins at minus-110

New Mexico

Total: 4.5 (over plus-115, under minus-135)

Last Year: 3-9 straight-up, 4-8 against the spread

This number has come down a half-point and added juice to the under — but it may not have shifted far enough. The Lobos look like the one team in the Mountain West without much of a case to be made as far as the program heading in the right direction. They’ve gone 3-9 in each of the last two years and, in a desperate attempt to reverse fate this year, perennial hot-seat-resting coach Bob Davie has brought in a load of junior-college transfers and new assistants. That sometimes works, but more often fails.

Lean: Under 4.5 wins at minus-135

Utah State

Total: 6.5 (over minus-120, under Even)

Last Year: 11-2 straight-up, 10-3 against the spread

Utah State was arguably the most impressive team in the Mountain West last year, posting a plus-329 scoring differential and coming a close loss to Boise State away from a conference title game appearance. But it’s worth remembering that was the year Utah State built toward for a more than a half-decade and might be more of an outlier than a future indicator. New, old coach Gary Andersen is back but he struggled in his tenure at Oregon State and there’s no guarantee he can regain the magic that resulted in a 2012 WAC championship. Expect a decline, but a four-game decline is steep.

Guess: Over 6.5 wins at minus-120

Wyoming

Total: 5.5 (over Even, under minus-120)

Last Year: 6-6 straight-up, 5-7 against the spread

Playing Wyoming is unlike playing any other team in the conference, as coach Craig Bohl has implemented a bruising, old-school style that suits the Cowboys well. While it’s generally a losing strategy to be stuck in the past, it’s worked for Wyoming because the style meshes with its personnel and cuts down games to allow for more variance against more talented opposition.

Play: Over 5.5 wins at Even money

Fresno State

Total: 8 (minus-110, minus-110)

Last Year: 12-2 straight-up, 10-4 against the spread

Going from 1-11 in 2016 to back-to-back 10-win seasons, and a conference championship, is one of the most remarkable stories of college football the last two years. Fresno State, unsurprisingly, has been the best bet in the nation at 20-6-2 against the spread. Regression has to be coming, right? The Bulldogs have the second-least returning production in the nation, per S&P+ rating, meaning coach Jeff Tedford is arguably starting more from scratch this year than he was two years ago when he took the job. Doubting Tedford has been a recipe for disaster, but it’s hard to see how to avoid it this year.

Guess: Under 8 wins at minus-110

Hawaii

Total: 5.5 (over Even, under minus-115)

Last Year: 8-6 straight-up, 5-8-1 against the spread

The Warriors looked better than they were at the start of last season by winning their first three games against what turned out to be dreadful competition. They won’t have that luxury this year, as Hawaii opens with a trio of Pac-12 games. Cole McDonald, who threw for 36 touchdowns to 10 interceptions last year, has a chance to be the Mountain West’s best quarterback but Hawaii will need him to be every bit that strong to prevent a slide. The rest of the conference is looking better, and that’s a negative for the Warriors.

Lean: Under 5.5 wins at minus-115

San Diego State

Total: 8 (plus-120, minus-140)

Last Year: 7-6 straight-up, 3-10 against the spread

Money has come in against San Diego State, but someone has to win the West Division and the Aztecs look like the best bet. For starters, their schedule is favorable as they get Fresno State at home while avoiding Boise State out of the Mountain Division. They’ve got a lot back, including running back Juwan Washington, and plan to modernize their offense. Buzz is absent after San Diego State dropped five of its final six games last season — and failed to cover in a single one — but that might be more of a recency bias than a valid handicapping tool.

Play: Over 8 wins at plus-120

San Jose State

Total: 2.5 (over minus-180, under plus-165)

Last Year: 1-11 straight-up, 7-5 against the spread

The stuck-in-the-mud Spartans only project as a favorite twice this season — in the opener against Northern Colorado and in an October home game against New Mexico. Defense was where they showed most of their definitive signs of progress last season, but that’s the side of the ball where they come in less experienced this year. The university is committing more resources into the program to try to make it a winner and with a few potential upset opportunities on the schedule — Tulsa, UNLV, Hawaii — it’s plausible that San Jose State could clear a low bar.

Guess: Over 2.5 wins at minus-180

UNLV

Total: 4 (over minus-130, under plus-110)

Last Year: 4-8 straight-up, 6-6 against the spread

The Rebels’ tough games are front-loaded, which is a real handicap in a make-or-break season for coach Tony Sanchez. It’s hard to fathom UNLV starting better than 3-5 with 2-6 more likely, and with the negativity that would then swirl around the program, how would the Rebels respond? Betting under on the Rebels’ win total has been one of the most reliable preseason bets for decades, and those priors are a stronger draw than the inflated price to play the over.

Lean: Under 4 wins at plus-110

UNR

Total: 6 (over minus-120, under Even)

Last Year: 8-5 straight-up, 7-6 against the spread

Aside from a turnover-fueled collapse against UNLV in the regular-season finale, UNR looked awfully impressive at the end of last season with five wins surrounding the Fremont Cannon loss including four covers. Coach Jay Norvell has energized the program and now has highly rated recruiting classes ready to step in. The Wolf Pack will need someone to emerge as a replacement for quarterback Ty Gagni, but regardless look like a clear top three team in the West division.

Lean: Over 6 wins at minus-120

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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