NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Sunday’s games

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, March 24, 2019 | 2 a.m.

The battle between bookmakers and bettors is as tight as an overtime thriller through three days of the NCAA Tournament.

Casinos have profited via the point spread on the busiest sports-betting weekend of the year no doubt, but it might be almost entirely because of the minus-110 charged on each side. It's by no means a blowout with hold percentage spilling out of the margins.

Throughout the round of 64, the result of every game seemed to alternate whether it benefited the house or the players. At William Hill sports books, 16 sides that had the majority of the money won and 16 sides that had the majority of the money lost.

Talking Points has experienced the up-and-down ride as well, with a 23-20-1 against the spread record picking every game but the blog has gone 5-0 on top-confidence plays.

Check below for picks on all of Sunday’s game, listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side.

No. 3 seed Texas Tech minus-3.5 vs. No. 6 seed Buffalo This is a disastrous matchup for the Bulls, which haven’t faced a team as imposing defensively as the Red Raiders all year. Texas Tech will slow down the game and grind Buffalo from the beginning, and it’s hard to imagine the underdogs successfully dealing with the pressure.

No. 13 seed UC-Irvine plus-5 vs. No. 5 seed Oregon Still not fully believing in Oregon’s transformation to contender based on its nine-game straight-up and against the spread winning streak. The Ducks exploded to shoot 54 percent from the field, and 47 percent from the 3-point line, in a 72-54 win over Wisconsin as 2-point underdogs but there’s nothing to indicate that type of offense is sustainable. Regression is likely.

No. 9 seed UCF plus-13 vs. No. 1 seed Duke There’s a reason Duke has gone only 1-3 against the spread since the much-celebrated return of Zion Williamson: Perception is causing the Blue Devils’ lines to consistently come in a few points too high. Value will continue to be available on those brave enough to bet against the high-flying Blue Devils.

No. 3 seed Houston minus-5.5 vs. No. 11 seed Ohio State Houston would have been one of the leaders on Talking Points’ list of bet-on teams going into the tournament, and did nothing to change that in an 84-55 win over Georgia State as 12.5-point favorites. Ohio State played one of its best game of the seasons to upset Iowa State 62-59 as 5-point underdogs. It’s not going to be as easy against a Houston defense that leads the nation in effective field goal percentage.

No. 1 seed Virginia minus-11 vs. No. 9 seed Oklahoma The Cavaliers are the lone No. 1 seed in action today that doesn’t appear to have a tax levied on bettors in order to back them. This line is fair — there’s no great value to be found — and when a line is fair, it’s always worth a lean to a team that’s been the nation’s most consistent.

No. 12 seed Liberty plus-9 vs. No. 4 seed Virginia Tech The Hokies and the Flames were both in the nation’s top 20 for slowest pace throughout the season, meaning possessions will be largely limited. That’s a major deterrent from laying a big number, especially against a great shooting team with Liberty that can increase variance.

No. 9 seed Washington plus-11.5 vs. No. 1 seed North Carolina Number looks ever-so-slightly inflated considering Washington’s talent level. The Huskies are also well-coached by Mike Hopkins, who’s more than familiar with North Carolina after spending four years battling the Tar Heels coaching at Syracuse.

No. 2 seed Tennessee minus-8 vs. No. 10 seed Iowa File Tennessee’s 77-70 win over Colgate as 17.5-point favorites under, “misleading final scores.” The Volunteers played well, but the Raiders caught fire to provide suspense at the end. This number looks about right, but would rather strike on Volunteers before their stock goes up.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.