Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 11 winners against the spread

Eagles Football

Frank Franklin II / AP

In this Feb. 4, 2018 photo, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz, right, hands the Vincent Lombardi trophy to Nick Foles after winning the NFL Super Bowl 52 football game against the New England Patriots in Minneapolis.

It's the Pats traveling to play the Birds in a highly anticipated game with a 3.5-point line pitting recreational sports bettors against the professionals.

Didn't we just do this? The surface-level narrative of the New England Patriots' trip to Philadelphia slotted for CBS' featured afternoon time slot this week is the exact same as their Sunday Night Football loss to the Ravens two weeks ago.

New England has only lost back-to-back games three times in the last seven seasons — though two of the occasions came last year — which is part of the reason why the vast majority of action will come in on it bouncing back this week. Sports books will need Philadelphia to beat the Patriots again in a rematch of Super Bowl 52.

And, at least last week, what the sports books needed, the sports books received. With underdogs going 8-5 straight-up and against the spread, some local shops had their winningest week of the year.

This column had one of its best showings of the year, going 9-4 against the spread picking every game to bring the season record to 87-60-1.

Read below for picks on all of this week's games, separated into three confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen sides.

Plays (25-12-1)

Denver Broncos plus-10.5 at Minnesota Vikings No one wants to back Denver for the third straight week, an avoidance that's contributing to the Broncos being one of the most undervalued teams in the NFL. They have one of the best defenses in the league, ranking seventh in giving up 5 yards per play, and a statistical profile closer to a 5-4 team according to Football Outsiders' estimated wins than their actual 3-6 record.

Carolina Panthers minus-5.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons Don't be fooled by one great performance by the Falcons, a 26-9 win over the Saints as 14-point underdogs last week that shaved 1.5 points off the look-ahead line for this week's game at Carolina. It's not as if the Panthers played poorly in their 24-16 loss to the Packers as 5-point underdogs anyway as they were a mere inch or two away from covering and perhaps sending the game to overtime.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-5.5 vs. New Orleans Saints Is Drew Brees worth more than a touchdown on the point spread? I don't think so, especially not after last week's listless performance in the loss to Falcons, but that's what this spread is implying. The Buccaneers were only a closing 3-point underdog on the road at New Orleans last month, making this way too large of an adjustment.

Cleveland Browns minus-2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers This might be the final week where the Browns are artificially deflated by virtue of having faced one of the NFL's toughest schedules, so take advantage while it's still possible. The line on this game coming into the season was an identical 2.5 points, and while Cleveland has basically the same team, Pittsburgh has been besieged with injuries all over the roster.

Leans (31-23)

Philadelphia Eagles plus-3.5 vs. New England Patriots Philadelphia looked like one of the most complete teams in the league going into the preseason — yes, as complete as New England — and it's just now getting back to full strength coming off of a bye week. With most of Philadelphia's injury issues resolved, the Eagles are a bet-on team potentially at the precipice of unlocking their full potential.

Dallas Cowboys minus-3.5 at Detroit Lions This is a fair, perhaps even slightly short line if Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford plays. If Stafford sits out for a second straight week as seems likely with back and hip injuries, this suddenly turns into the best value on the board, so grab the price now while it's available.

Chicago Bears plus-7 at Los Angeles Rams The Rams are getting too much of an adjustment for home-field advantage in a game that will feature predominantly Bears' fans. For all the jokes about the Bears, they have a plus-5 point differential on the year and arguably the most talented and well-rounded defense in the league.

Oakland Raiders minus-10 vs. Cincinnati Bengals The market struggles to price outliers accordingly and the Bengals are an outlier of futility, especially behind rookie quarterback Ryan Finley. A time will come to the fade the Raiders, but it's not this week.

Washington Redskins minus-1 vs. New York Jets These are two of the most injured teams in the league, but at least Washington is coming off of a bye where it could heal up while New York is playing for the seventh straight week. Washington is actually a spot ahead of New York by Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings — No. 29 to its visitors' No. 30.

Indianapolis Colts minus-2.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Returning Jacksonville quarterback Nick Foles has spent his entire career as an enigma, making it hard to trust him in his first game back since suffering an injury in week 1. Indianapolis may have lost two straight, but it outgained both opponents on a per-play basis.

Kansas City Chiefs minus-3.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers in Mexico City The best way to beat Kansas City is to control the clock and run the football, and Los Angeles doesn't look capable. The Chargers rate 25th in the NFL in gaining only 3.8 yards per rush attempt and are now dealing with cluster injuries along the offensive line.

Guesses (27-24)

Baltimore Ravens minus-4 vs. Houston Texans There's not much value here, but the opening line of minus-4.5 appeared perfect. With the hook shaved off, I'll gladly back one of the best gameday coaches in the NFL, Baltimore's John Harbaugh, over one of the worst, Houston's Bill O'Brien.

San Francisco 49ers minus-11.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals The 49ers laid virtually this same spread, a point lower to be exact, on the road at Arizona two weeks ago and nearly covered if it wasn't for a late Cardinals touchdown in a 27-24 victory. I'd be forced to consider Arizona if the line got to 13, but with stock down on San Francisco following its first loss of the year, that seems unlikely.

Miami Dolphins plus-6 vs. Buffalo Bills I've picked against both these teams in almost every game all year — much to my detriment early on the Bills and lately on the Dolphins — and am now left flustered having to back one. With the total sitting a minute 40 points, taking the points might be the lesser of two evils.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

Join the Discussion:

Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.

Full comments policy