Las Vegas Sun

March 19, 2024

College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 13

Clemson Etienne

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Clemson’s Travis Etienne rushes in for a touchdown during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Louisville, Saturday, Nov. 3, 2018, in Clemson, S.C.

If chaos is going to come for college football this year, it's going to need to come soon. Unpredictability has been mostly missing from the top of the sport, at least compared to past seasons, as the season heads into its final two regular-season weeks.

The College Football Playoff picture has stayed virtually the same for the last month, ever since Kansas State upset in Oklahoma in late October. From that moment forward, four undefeated teams stood above the rest in the quest to reach the College Football Playoff — Ohio State, Clemson, LSU and Alabama.

The latter two were always going to take care of themselves when they went to head-to-head, a meeting LSU won 46-41 and left it with Ohio State and Clemson in controlling its own championship destiny. None of those three teams have shown much weakness at all, and assuming they all win out, there's only one spot up for grabs between the Pac-12 champion, Big 12 champion and Alabama.

But in the past, this has all been very fluid. Can it stay that way this year? Is the penultimate week the week surprises finally come in?

Read below as I attempt to answer those questions with picks on every Football Bowl Subdivision game on the board. The record on the year stands at 334-250-15 — 53-43-3 on plays, 90-49-2 on leans and 191-158-10 on guesses. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories, and lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

AAC

Memphis minus-14.5 at South Florida, over/under: 59.5. If you've read the column before, you know the drill. Memphis is a play virtually every week as the best team in the nation that no one — at least not in the betting market — seems to notice. Play: Memphis minus-14.5.

Temple plus-10.5 at Cincinnati, over/under: 45.5. It's too bad these teams are playing each other as they both look bet-against sides with statistical profiles that don't match their records. Points could be valuable, however, as the clock will drain quickly in this game between two run-heavy offenses. Guess: Temple plus-10.5.

Central Florida minus-5.5 at Tulane, over/under: 70. The Knights have an experienced defense that's strong against the run and are coming off of a bye week. Those are all advantageous factors pointing in their direction going up against the Green Wave's triple option. Guess: UCF minus-5.5.

SMU plus-3 at Navy, over/under: 67.5. The half-point hook has started to disappear from some local sports books, which makes the Midshipmen the choice. This might be the most competitive game of the day, so close that if only 3.5 winds up available at kickoff, the Mustangs might be the better look. Guess: Navy minus-3.

East Carolina minus-16 at Connecticut, over/under: 66. Bookmakers were on top of this one. I hoped to snag a value price with the Pirates given how well they played against SMU and Cincinnati in their last two games, but the number is instead inflated way out of bettable territory, and in fact, maybe has gone a bit too far. Guess: Connecticut plus-16.

Houston plus-3 at Tulsa, over/under: 58.5. There's no edge here with both teams looking like carbon copies of each other to justify the spread. The Cougars have seen a couple more players exit after a tumultuous season, however, to make them a stay-away team. Guess: Tulsa minus-3.

ACC

Syracuse plus-9.5 at Louisville, over/under: 62.5. Now as healthy as they've been all season, the Orange are a solid bet-on team. Louisville has been a revelation this season, but the market has swung too far in its direction considering it projected as an underdog in this spot going into the season. Play: Syracuse plus-9.5.

Liberty plus-17 at Virginia, over/under: 54.5. Virginia lacks offensive explosiveness, a crippling deficiency when asked to lay this big of a number. Since an ignominious loss to Rutgers, Liberty has played well including a near-upset of BYU. Lean: Liberty plus-17.

Pittsburgh plus-3.5 at Virginia Tech, over/under: 46. The Hokies offense has improved dramatically since sophomore quarterback Hendon Hooker took over. The Panthers are prone to prolonged offensive outages. Guess: Virginia Tech minus-3.5.

Duke plus-7 at Wake Forest, over/under: 48.5. This spread is placed perfectly, but Duke's already-feeble offense may suffer further attrition with cluster injuries along the line. Wake Forest is well-coached and shouldn't be downgraded too much for running up against teams with superior rosters in Clemson and Virginia Tech the last two weeks. Guess: Wake Forest minus-7.

Big Ten

Minnesota minus-13.5 at Northwestern, over/under: 39.5. Let's take it easy before declaring Northwestern as having figured something out off of decent performances against hapless UMass and injury-ravaged Purdue. Even if Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan doesn't play, the Golden Gophers have enough offense to blow out Northwestern. Lean: Minnesota minus-13.5.

Purdue plus-24.5 at Wisconsin, over/under: 48. Purdue coach Jeff Brohm has done an admirable job working around a multitude of injuries, including to the Boilermakers' top three quarterbacks, but the success has come against the likes of Nebraska and Northwestern. Wisconsin, with a defense rating sixth in the nation in giving up 4.2 yards per play, is a different animal. Lean: Wisconsin minus-24.5.

Michigan minus-9.5 at Indiana, over/under: 53. Michigan has gone from getting buried too quickly from a couple poor performances to coronated prematurely from a couple strong performances. The opening number of minus-7 was more in the vicinity of where this line should be. Lean: Indiana plus-9.5.

Penn State plus-19 at Ohio State, over/under: 57.5. The Buckeyes have obviously utilized their's better, but purely from a talent standpoint, there's not a near three-touchdown difference between these two teams. I'll hope the hot take of, "Ohio State peaked early in the season," proves true and Penn State stays competitive. Guess: Penn State plus-19.

Illinois plus-14.5 at Iowa, over/under: 46.5. The Illini has become overvalued by virtue of narrow, and somewhat fortunate, wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State. They're also still the same team that lost to Eastern Michigan and eked out a win over Connecticut. Guess: Iowa minus-14.5.

Nebraska minus-4.5 at Maryland, over/under: 61.5. The number now looks spot-on after some hammering away at the opening price of minus-7.5. Nebraska's season has been a spectacular failure, but it still has a distinct coaching advantage with Scott Frost against Maryland's Mike Locksley. Guess: Nebraska minus-4.5.

Michigan State minus-20.5 at Rutgers, over/under: 43. Betting on either one of these teams seems like a bad idea — they're a combined 2-9 against the spread since October — but there's still a pretty big talent discrepancy. If the Spartans haven't checked out on the season, they should blow out the Scarlet Knights. Guess: Michigan State minus-20.5.

Big 12

Texas plus-5.5 at Baylor, over/under: 58.5. From an efficiency standpoint, Baylor could be a bigger favorite than this with both teams at full strength. But they're not as the Longhorns have the lengthiest injury report in the conference. Play: Baylor minus-5.5.

Kansas plus-24.5 at Iowa State, over/under: 58. Number looks a tad short, quite possibly an overreaction to the ringer Iowa State just went through in facing Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Texas in consecutive weeks. The Cyclones' defense is above-average and will get back to looking like it against the Jayhawks. Lean: Iowa State minus-24.5.

Kansas State plus-2.5 at Texas Tech, over/under: 55.5. Two weeks ago, before back-to-back losses to Texas and West Virginia by a total of seven points, Kansas State would have been more than a field goal favorite in this spot. Buying low on the Wildcats might be advisable. Lean: Kansas State plus-2.5.

Oklahoma State minus-6 at West Virginia, over/under: 54.5. Right when the Cowboys were beginning to show their full potential on offense, they lose quarterback Spencer Sanders for the year. They could be fine without him behind former Hawaii signal caller Dru Brown, but there's too much variance to lay points on the road. Guess: West Virginia plus-6.

TCU plus-17.5 at Oklahoma, over/under: 65. The Sooners have made some uncharacteristic mistakes in a three-game against the spread losing streak, but their ceiling is still as high as any team in the country when they're clicking. They're not a side I'm looking to fade. Guess: Oklahoma minus-17.5.

Conference USA

North Texas minus-6.5 at Rice, over/under: 55.5. North Texas has been a major disappointment, but is set up to break out on the road out of a bye week. Senior quarterback Mason Fine is expected to return from a concussion and should torch one of the nation's worst secondaries. Play: North Texas minus-6.5.

Florida Atlantic minus-20.5 at UTSA, over/under: 57.5. With the Owls at No. 40 in Football Outsiders' F/+ ratings to the Miners' No. 125, this is quietly one of the biggest mismatches on the board. Florida Atlantic is also coming off of a bye, and coach Lane Kiffin is not known for being merciful. Lean: Florida Atlantic minus-20.5.

Marshall minus-7 at Charlotte, over/under: 55.5. Marshall has enjoyed a charmed season, winning its last three games decided by less than seven points. Charlotte coach Will Healy has been inventive all season and has extra time to tinker out of a bye week. Lean: Charlotte plus-7.

Louisiana Tech plus-6 at UAB, over/under: 44. Louisiana Tech still has the better roster, but with quarterback J'Mar Smith and receiver Adrian Hardy suspended for one more game, it can't be bet on at the moment. The Bulldogs were lost without their two best players in a 31-10 loss to Marshall as 6.5-point underdogs last week. Guess: UAB minus-6.

Miami minus-21 at Florida International, over/under: 49. Number is right where it should be, but if Florida International coach Butch Davis has any surprises left to throw late in the season, it's going to come in this game against his former school. This is a situation where the game appears to mean a lot more to one side, Florida International, than the other. Guess: Florida International plus-21.

Western Kentucky plus-4 at Southern Miss, over/under: 51.5. These teams are extremely evenly matched — Southern Miss is much better on offense, Western Kentucky is much better on defense. That means any line higher than a field goal is excessive. Guess: Western Kentucky plus-4.

Old Dominion plus-14.5 at Middle Tennessee, over/under: 47. This is the second straight week the Blue Raiders have laid two touchdowns. They lost outright to Rice 31-28 as 13.5-point favorites last week, if you want to know how desirable it is to give a big number with a team this young and inefficient. Guess: Old Dominion plus-14.5.

Independents

Boston College plus-19.5 at Notre Dame, over/under: 64. Boston College has posted minus-0.5 net yard per play on the year; Notre Dame is at plus-1.5. This might therefore be a bigger mismatch than the spread indicates. Guess: Notre Dame minus-19.5.

UTEP plus-7.5 at New Mexico State, over/under: 55.5. These teams are too similar for this large of a spread. They're both within the nation's bottom 10 by any set of efficiency ratings. Guess: UTEP plus-7.5.

BYU minus-40.5 at Massachusetts, over/under: 69. Last week's edict to cease from picking both UMass and Akron for the rest of the season has hurt me more than helped me, but I refuse to stray. The Minutemen are one of the worst teams in modern college football history. Guess: BYU minus-40.5.

MAC

Ball State minus-3.5 at Kent State, over/under: 67.5. The extra half-point — and extra couple days to prepare — make the Zips the pick. It's hard to imagine them not having a shrewd gameplan behind one of the MAC's best coaches in Sean Lewis. Guess: Kent State plus-3.5.

Mountain West

Air Force minus-22 at New Mexico, over/under: 54.5. I try not to repeat myself in back-to-back weeks in this column, but seriously, opportunities to fade coach Bob Davie's underachieving, mistake-prone Lobos' teams are running low. Act now or forever regret it. Play: Air Force minus-22.

Colorado State plus-6.5 at Wyoming, over/under: 50.5. Number is fair based on the teams' resumes, but not based on their injury situations. The Cowboys have a patchwork offense at the moment with nearly half of the starters from a month ago on the mend. Lean: Colorado State plus-6.5.

Boise State minus-8.5 at Utah State, over/under: 53. Both starting quarterbacks, Boise State's Hank Bachmeier and Utah State's Jordan Love, are questionable but the former is far better equipped to handle an absence. Even though Love has been inconsistent this season, he's the only chance the Aggies have at knocking off the Broncos. Lean: Boise State minus-8.5.

San Diego State plus-3 at Hawaii, over/under: 48.5. I was initially intrigued by the Warriors in a home game to reach the Mountain West Conference championship, but the line movement has canceled them from consideration. San Diego State is the better team, and the shift from pick'em to plus-3 is too significant to ignore. Guess: San Diego State plus-3.

UNR plus-14 at Fresno State, over/under: 51. A few weeks ago, Fresno State would have been at least a 17-point favorite in this matchup. Maybe UNR has turned its season around with a two-game winning streak, but more often, two-game blips are just that, blips. Guess: Fresno State minus-14.

San Jose State minus-6.5 at UNLV, over/under: 65. San Jose State quarterback Josh Love is a big challenge for a UNLV secondary susceptible to giving up big plays. The Trojans have played smart all year and need to win their last two games to become bowl eligible. Guess: San Jose State minus-6.5.

Pac-12

Oregon State plus-10.5 at Washington State, over/under: 77. The Beavers have made major strides in every area except one this season — their secondary. They still barely rank in the nation's top 100 in giving up 7.9 yards per pass attempt and will be hard-pressed to stop Washington State quarterback Anthony Gordon from his fourth straight game of more than 400 passing yards. Play: Washington State minus-10.5.

Oregon minus-14.5 at Arizona State, over/under: 52. This spread has dropped by 1.5 points, but more than two touchdowns is still too generous. Oregon hasn't played as well as its 9-1 straight-up record indicates while Arizona State has played better than its 5-5 mark indicates. Play: Arizona State plus-14.5.

Washington minus-14 at Colorado, over/under: 53. Colorado coach Mel Tucker has made strides in his first year, but there's still a personnel discrepancy at play in this matchup. The Huskies have a lot of top-end talent; the Buffaloes have none. Lean: Washington minus-14.

California plus-2.5 at Stanford, over/under: 40. There's no guarantee that Cal quarterback Chase Garbers and running back Chris Brown play, but if they do, the Golden Bears as an underdog will be a great value. Even if they don't, Cal is far from doomed against a leaky Stanford defense. Guess: California plus-2.5.

Utah minus-23 at Arizona, over/under: 58. Put a different team name next to Utah's statistical profile and it's laying a few more points in every game. The only Pac-12 teams the Utes haven't blown out are Washington and USC; Arizona is not on the level of either. Guess: Utah minus-23.

UCLA plus-13.5 at USC, over/under: 65.5. With coach Chip Kelly's schemes no longer making for an edge, the Bruins have gotten blown out every time they've gone up against a team with superior talent. The Trojans have superior talent. Guess: USC minus-13.5.

SEC

Texas A&M plus-13.5 at Georgia, over/under: 44. The Bulldogs' offense is sputtering right as the Aggies' defense is clicking. Texas A&M seems to have slipped from the national consciousness but no team in the nation has three better losses — to Alabama, Auburn and Clemson. Play: Texas A&M plus-13.5.

Arkansas plus-43.5 at LSU, over/under: 70. With LSU already in place to achieve all of its goals going forward, the Tigers are unlikely to be concerned with running up on the score on Arkansas. They would need to want to run up the score to cover this spread. Guess: Arkansas plus-43.5.

Tennessee plus-4 at Missouri, over/under: 45.5. Missouri's decline — including four straight against the spread losses — has been too precipitous to trust it laying points any more. Tennessee, meanwhile, is headed in the other direction, playing better down the stretch and having covered in five straight. Guess: Tennessee plus-4.

Sun Belt

Georgia Southern plus-1.5 at Arkansas State, over/under: 55.5. Arkansas State is sinking under the weight of cluster injuries in its skill positions. The Red Wolves are also in the nation's bottom 30 in giving up 5.2 yards per rush attempt, which is a major issue going up against an Eagles team that runs out of the triple option on more than 80 percent of its plays. Play: Georgia Southern plus-1.5.

Coastal Carolina plus-6 at Louisiana-Monroe, over/under: 64. If anything, Coastal Carolina has been slightly better than Louisiana-Monroe on the year with a stronger net yard per play and point differential. That means this number is too high. Lean: Coastal Carolina plus-6.

Troy plus-14 at Louisiana Lafayette, over/under: 72.5. Power ratings have finally caught up to the Rajun Cajuns, which had been a covering machine for the last two seasons. There's no sense in laying two touchdowns against what might be the Sun Belt's most explosive offense, though. Guess: Troy plus-14.

Texas State plus-30 at Appalachian State, over/under: 51. As great as Appalachian State has been — and it's been the best team in the Sun Belt bar none — it's only beaten one team by this many points. And it's played teams worse than Texas State. Guess: Texas State plus-30.

South Alabama plus-10 at Georgia State, over/under: 56. Even against the best opponents it's faced, Georgia State has shown some offensive explosiveness with quarterback Dan Ellington and running back Tra Barnett. Even against the worst opponents it's faced, South Alabama has shown nothing of the sort. Guess: Georgia State minus-10.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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