College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of every Week 5 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Sept. 27, 2019 | 2 a.m.

The consensus coming into the season was that this year’s national championship race was anything but wide open. Through four weeks, it’s somehow looking even more exclusive than anticipated.

Six teams are at least solidly in the running for a playoff berth, according to future odds at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. A seventh might have an outside shot.

After that? Good luck.

Alabama (9-to-4), Clemson (9-to-4), Georgia (5-to-1), Ohio State (8-to-1), LSU (8-to-1) and Oklahoma (10-to-1) are the only teams at 10-to-1 or less to win the national championship. Wisconsin trails at 20-to-1, and then every other program is the nation is at least 50-to-1.

It’s incredibly early for this large of a group, but it’s the nature of this season and unlikely to change any time soon. The only one of the aforementioned teams in any sort of a challenging spot this week is Ohio State, which travels to Nebraska as a 17-point favorite.

The other six teams are either on a bye or favored by more than 24 points. That’s the group that will command all the attention this year, but there’s always other profitable spots for bettors to find on the board.

That’s what I’m focused on in trying to live up to a strong 106-74-8 start to the season including 16-15-3 on plays, 32-9-1 on leans and 58-50-4 on plays.

Check below for picks on every week 5 game, separated by conference and labeled in three different confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

AAC

SMU minus-8 at South Florida, over/under: 62.5. The Bulls are coming off of a bye week — as opposed to SMU which outlasted TCU in a 41-38 battle — where they could have potentially regrouped to set up coming out looking more like the team expected at the beginning of the season. At the beginning of the season, the Bulls shaped up as at least a field-goal favorite in this spot. Guess: South Florida plus-8.

Cincinnati minus-3.5 at Marshall, over/under: 46.5. Presence of the half-point hook looms large as a straight minus-3 seems like the perfect line for this game. The Thundering Herd struggled against the only other above-average defense they faced this year — not even gaining a first down in the second half of a 14-7 loss to Boise State — to provide some hesitation here. Guess: Marshall plus-3.5.

Connecticut plus-44 at Central Florida, over/under: 64. It seems like the last few seasons of college football have provided a couple lessons to be applied here. First, don’t bet on Connecticut, which is 8-18-1 against the spread since 2017, and second, don’t bet against UCF, which is 20-9-1 against the spread since 2017. Guess: UCF minus-44.

Georgia Tech plus-8.5 at Temple, over/under: 49. There’s a lot to digest here, probably too much to get involved. Both teams are coming off of humbling upset losses — Temple to Buffalo as 14-point favorites and Georgia Tech to The Citadel as 27-point favorites. There will be even more added emotion with first-year Georgia Tech coach Geoff Collins coming back to face his former players. Guess: Temple minus-8.5.

ACC

Duke plus-2.5 at Virginia Tech, over/under: 53.5. This line is a gross overreaction to Virginia Tech’s struggles — the Hokies are 0-3 against the spread to start the season. Duke hasn’t exactly been gangbusters as there’s no reason to put too much stock into blowout wins against Middle Tennessee and North Carolina A&T, and Virginia Tech has far more experience and talent. Play: Virginia Tech minus-2.5.

Wake Forest minus-6.5 at Boston College, over/under: 69. Wake Forest might have one of its better teams while Boston College is in a down year, but have the two programs really diverged this far? Last year, Boston College laid 6.5 points at Wake Forest — and won 41-34. Play: Boston College plus-6.5.

North Carolina State plus-6.5 at Florida State, over/under: 60.5. The chance to buy low on the Seminoles was apparently a one-week offer as they’re right back to commanding an inflated spread off of a 35-24 win over Louisville as 7-point favorites. For the second straight season, Florida State is suffering a rash of injuries — most notably along the offensive line — that will prove impactful. Lean: NC State plus-6.5.

Clemson minus-26.5 at North Carolina, over/under: 60.5. Clemson’s cadre of edge rushes creates problems for all opponents, but the Tar Heels’ beaten-up offensive line should have particular trouble with the likes of Isaiah Simmons and Xavier Thomas. It’s hard to see North Carolina scoring any points. Guess: Clemson minus-26.5.

Big Ten

Indiana plus-14.5 at Michigan State, over/under: 44.5. Buy low on Indiana, which might have its best team under coach Tom Allen and is being unfairly downgraded for its blowout loss to a juggernaut Ohio State squad. Two touchdowns are highly valuable in a game where there doesn’t project to be much scoring. Play: Indiana plus-14.5.

Ohio State minus-17 at Nebraska, over/under: 67.5. The Buckeyes have won their last three games by a combined 154 points, but that makes it feel like a time to sell high. Nebraska has the talent to reach a level it hasn’t shown yet, and it was only a 6-point underdog in this spot going into the season. Lean: Nebraska plus-17.

Minnesota minus-1 at Purdue, over/under: 53.5. Sure, the Golden Gophers are lucky to be undefeated with three wins all by a touchdown or less, but the Boilermakers have an Even point differential despite a manageable schedule. Still nursing a litany of injuries among its skill positions, Purdue can’t be trusted against any good team. Lean: Minnesota minus-1.

Penn State minus-6.5 at Maryland, over/under: 62. Still scarred by his all-time horrendous run at New Mexico earlier this decade, I need to see more from new Maryland coach Mike Locksley before backing his team at fair prices. This looks like a fair price, and might be a coaching mismatch against Penn State coach James Franklin. Lean: Penn State minus-6.5.

Northwestern plus-24 at Wisconsin, over/under: 46.5. Slim market value is still value. I’m taking a good price on the Badgers, as minus-24 is gradually disappearing from the betting screen. This line is likely to close a point or two higher. Guess: Wisconsin minus-24.

Rutgers plus-27.5 at Michigan, over/under: 49. It’s hard to describe it as, “buying low,” when a team is still laying four touchdowns, but this is the nadir of Jim Harbaugh’s tenure at Michigan. It’s unlikely to last, and the Wolverines have given more than 30 points the other two times they hosted the Scarlet Knights under Harbaugh. Guess: Michigan minus-27.5.

Middle Tennessee plus-24 at Iowa, over/under: 51.5. The Hawkeyes have surely already started drilling against looks they expect to see from next week’s Big Ten opener opponent Michigan in practice. Their primary aim in this game will be to come out unscathed, and the Blue Raiders are just frisky enough to not get blown out. Guess: Middle Tennessee plus-24.

Big 12

Iowa State minus-3 at Baylor, over/under: 56.5. This is the start of the conference season Baylor has built towards ever since coach Matt Rhule arrived three years ago. The Bears are one of the most experienced teams in the nation and have stayed vanilla through three straight blowouts — against Rice, UTSA and Stephen F. Austin — to start the year. Expect them to unleash everything they have against the Cyclones, which have faced a much more demanding start to the season. Play: Baylor plus-3.

Texas Tech plus-27 at Oklahoma, over/under: 71.5. Oklahoma, which has somehow exceeded lofty expectations in starting the year 2-1 against the spread, was a 21-point favorite in this spot going into the season. Texas Tech has since lost quarterback Alan Bowman and there’s big a drop-off to the two players now competing for the job. A six-point adjustment might not be enough. Lean: Oklahoma minus-27.

Kansas State plus-4.5 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 60.5. With Oklahoma State at No. 24 in Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings and Kansas State at No. 25, this game is a total toss-up. Total toss-ups should never have a line of higher than 3 in favor of the home team. Lean: Kansas State plus-4.5.

Kansas plus-16.5 at TCU, over/under: 49. Turnovers, failures to finish drives and controversial calls doomed Kansas last week as it otherwise outplayed West Virginia, racking up a near 3 yard per play advantage. I’m looking for spots to back the Jayhawks and this might not be a bad one with the Horned Frogs lacking the offensive explosiveness to cover big numbers. Guess: Kansas plus-16.5.

Conference USA

East Carolina plus-3 at Old Dominion, over/under: 47.5. Old Dominion’s close losses to Virginia and Virginia Tech belie the efficiency metrics as the Monarchs were outplayed more than the final scores indicated. East Carolina similarly outgained Old Dominion by more than 200 yards last year despite only edging out a 37-35 win as 7-point favorites. Lean: East Carolina plus-3.

UAB minus-3 at Western Kentucky, over/under: 46. The young Blazers’ team has seemingly improved each week while the Hilltoppers have shown far more inconsistency. It will be a while before Western Kentucky coach Tyson Helton can stabilize his program to the extent Bill Clark has done at UAB. Lean: UAB minus-3.

Houston plus-7 at North Texas, over/under: 59. This line shifted all the way from Houston minus-3.5 with news that quarterback D’Eriq King would sit out for the remainder of the season as a redshirt. That might seem stark, but he probably deserves that big of an impact as Houston undergoes the change from one of the nation’s best quarterbacks to a complete unknown in Clayton Tune. Guess: North Texas minus-7.

Louisiana Tech minus-8 at Rice, over/under: 48.5. Number is coming down after opening at Louisiana Tech minus-11.5, presumably the result of sharp money but I’m having a hard time swallowing it as wise. Rice hasn’t stayed within single digits of Louisiana Tech in the last five series meetings. Guess: Louisiana Tech minus-8.

UTEP plus-26.5 at Southern Miss, over/under: 48.5. Three straight road trips — at Troy, Mississippi State and Alabama no less — are bound to take their toll on the Golden Eagles. UTEP has only played once since a bye week, a 37-21 loss to UNR as 14-point underdogs, and should be the much fresher team. Guess: UTEP plus-26.5.

Florida Atlantic pick’em at Charlotte, over/under: 64.5. Potential coaching mismatch alert. Though he still has the better players, Lane Kiffin has stagnated at Florida Atlantic. Charlotte is climbing under new coach Will Healy. Guess: Charlotte pick’em.

Independents

New Mexico plus-7 at Liberty, over/under: 71.5. Both teams lost their starting quarterbacks early in the season, but the Flames appear to have found a more surefire replacement in Sean Calvert. Or maybe they’re just playing better now that coach Hugh Freeze is no longer directing the game from a hospital bed. Lean: Liberty minus-7.

Virginia plus-13 at Notre Dame, over/under: 48.5. This would be a perfectly fair line under normal circumstances. I’m not sure these are normal circumstances with the Irish coming off of a grinder of a 23-17 loss at Georgia as 15.5-point underdogs and the Cavaliers having tiptoed through a 28-17 win against Old Dominion as 27-point favorites. Lean: Virginia plus-13.

Fresno State minus-17.5 at New Mexico State, over/under: 63. The Aggies have somehow covered twice despite getting outgained in all four of their games, by an average of nearly 3 yards per play. The Bulldogs have held per-play efficiency edges in all three of their games despite suffering two losses. Guess: Fresno State minus-17.5.

Akron minus-7 at Massachusetts, over/under: 64. Are the Minutemen really that much worse than the Zips? Yes, it appears so. UMass has posted a negative-3.8 net yards per play this year as opposed to Akron’s less-horrible 1.9 net yards per play. Guess: Akron minus-7.

MAC

Central Michigan plus-17.5 at Western Michigan, over/under: 59.5. Both these rivals’ current situations illustrate the issues with taking on a tough schedule of Power Five conference opponents in the non-conference. Their injury lists now nearly outnumber their healthy rosters, leaving them both difficult to handicap. Guess: Central Michigan plus-17.5.

BYU minus-2.5 at Toledo, over/under: 60.5. When in doubt, fade the MAC team in non-conference play. It’s a strategy that’s been profitable this season, as the MAC is so far behind the rest of college football that the market struggles to catch up. Guess: BYU minus-2.5.

Buffalo minus-3 at Miami (Ohio), over/under: 47.5. Buffalo is the better team, but the line has moved far too much to act on that information. The RedHawks opened as 4-point favorites, meaning this is the rare game to see a touchdown shift despite no players being officially ruled out. Guess: Miami (Ohio) plus-3

Mountain West

UNLV plus-9.5 at Wyoming, over/under: 50. Every point is valuable in a game with a team that plays as deliberately as Wyoming. The Cowboys’ slow pace is the only thing keeping this from being a play — it would have been at the opening price of minus-7 — as they otherwise have matchup edges in the trenches and a more stabilized program as rumors swirl around UNLV coach Tony Sanchez’s job security. Lean: Wyoming minus-9.5.

San Jose State plus-18.5 at Air Force, over/under: 56.5. Fade teams in their second straight road games in tough environments, especially bad teams. San Jose State notched its biggest win in years at Arkansas last week, 31-24 as 20-point underdogs, but it’s a big ask to expect the Spartans to reach peak performance in back-to-back games. Lean: Air Force minus-18.5.

Colorado State plus-24.5 at Utah State, over/under: 70.5. The Rams have no semblance of a defense — they’re allowing 7.6 yards per play to FBS opponents — but defense is an unnecessary luxury when getting this many points. The Rams are explosive enough on offense to not get blown out. Guess: Colorado State plus-24.5.

Hawaii plus-2 at UNR, over/under: 65.5. It’s typically a good idea to start fading the Warriors when they make their second trip to the mainland. They haven’t won at MacKay Stadium since 2007, their only victory on the road against Reno in school history. Guess: UNR minus-2.

Pac-12

Arizona State plus-5 at California, over/under: 41. Cal has an incredible coach in Justin Wilcox and a great defense, but no offense to speak of. The Golden Bears’ three Football Bowl Subdivision wins have come by a total of 15 points — and even a victory over UC-Davis was only by 14 points — making them one of the most overrated teams in the nation. Play: Arizona State plus-5.

USC plus-10 at Washington, over/under: 61. USC is heavily injured, and not only at quarterback where it’s down to third-stringer Matt Fink, who shouldn’t be counted on to be as lights-out as he was in last Friday’s 30-23 win over Utah. Buy signs are all over Washington, which has a still-diminished power rating because of its loss to Cal. A CG Technologies sports book is worth the visit as the operator is the only book offering a straight 10 with no hook. Play: Washington minus-10.

Stanford minus-4.5 at Oregon State, over/under: 58.5. Stanford looks completely lost with a net yard per play of minus-1.6. The only reason the Cardinal are a favorite in this game is their program reputation, which is coming dangerously close to no longer being applicable. Play: Oregon State plus-4.5.

UCLA plus-6.5 at Arizona, over/under: 71.5. The Wildcats were resting while the Bruins went on their wild run to comeback and upset Washington State 67-63 as 18-point underdogs last week. UCLA scored on almost all quick-strike touchdowns for an offensive outburst that looks unsustainable. Lean: Arizona minus-6.5.

Washington State plus-6 at Utah, over/under: 58. USC’s nascent Air Raid offense took Utah out of its comfort zone in a 30-23 Trojans win as 3.5-point underdogs last week. It doesn’t bode well that now the Utes must face a more developed and better version of the attack against the Cougars. Lean: Washington State plus-6.

SEC

Mississippi State plus-10.5 at Auburn, over/under: 47.5. Playing Mississippi State every week in the column seems like a running gag, but I just think the market is off of on the Bulldogs. Auburn has two big wins, against Texas A&M and Oregon, but were arguably outplayed in both games — certainly in the early going in the latter and the late-game in the former. These teams are evenly-matched. Play: Mississippi State plus-10.5.

Kentucky plus-3 at South Carolina, over/under: 50. Despite facing a significantly more difficult schedule so far, South Carolina has been more efficient than Kentucky on both sides of the ball. This line should be trending closer to a touchdown. Play: South Carolina minus-3.

Texas A&M minus-23.5 at Arkansas, over/under: 59.5. Yes, the Razorbacks had one of the most embarrassing losses of the season last week in falling to San Jose State but it’s still just one game. One game should never add three or four points to a line, as the defeat appeared to do here. If the line raises to 24, Arkansas is almost surely worth a play. Lean: Arkansas plus-23.5.

Ole Miss plus-38 at Alabama, over/under: 61. The Rebels are better than their 2-2 straight-up, 1-3 against the spread records indicate, as they’ve endured bad turnover luck — a 25 percent fumble recovery rate — and gone 0-2 in games decided by less than a touchdown. They aren’t a helpless sacrificial offering to the Crimson Tide. Guess: Ole Miss plus-38.

Northern Illinois plus-6.5 at Vanderbilt, over/under: 52.5. The Huskies have one of the nation’s 10 worst offenses by yards per play against FBS opponents. The Commodores have one of the nation’s 10 worst defenses by the same measure. Both of these teams are bet-against squads going forward. Guess: Northern Illinois plus-6.5.

Sun Belt

Arkansas State plus-7 at Troy, over/under: 61. The RedWolves lost quarterback revelation Luke Bonner to a hand injury, leaving the job to Alabama transfer Layne Hatcher. “Alabama transfer” may sound impressive but Hatcher was lightly recruiting and a big unknown, so this spread likely hasn’t adjusted enough. Play: Troy minus-7.

Louisiana-Lafayette minus-3.5 at Georgia Southern, over/under: 60.5. I’m happy to keep riding the Ragin’ Cajuns covering train until bookmakers decide to jump aboard and properly adjust their power ratings. Since coach Billy Napier arrived, ULL is 13-5 against the spread including 4-0 this year. Lean: Louisiana-Lafayette minus-3.5.

Coastal Carolina plus-16 at Appalachian State, over/under: 60. Having appeared to shore up a defense that struggled mightily last year to pair with a competent offense, Coastal Carolina might quietly be one of the most improved teams in the nation. There’s still a talent gap here, but Appalachian State will find trouble if it takes Coastal Carolina lightly. Guess: Coastal Carolina plus-16.

South Alabama plus-16 at Louisiana-Monroe, over/under: 59. The Warhawks, which gave up more than 700 yards in a 72-20 loss at Iowa State last week, have one of the worst defenses in the nation. I can’t lay more than two touchdowns with one of the worst defenses in the nation, one ripe to allow a backdoor cover. Guess: South Alabama plus-16.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.