Las Vegas Sun

October 22, 2019

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Week 4 NFL picks and best bets for the Sun’s handicapping contest

Patriots

Charles Krupa / AP

In this Aug. 9, 2018, file photo, New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman (11) talks with quarterback Tom Brady (12) before a preseason NFL football game against the Washington Redskins in Foxborough, Mass. There’s just two receivers in NFL postseason history with over 100 catches — Jerry Rice with 151 and Edelman with 105.

The participants in the Sun’s handicapping contest are undoubtedly representative of the betting public in one way this week: They want action on the most significant games.

Three games drew picks from three different prognosticators, and they’re arguably the three biggest matchups of week 4. Two of them were the only games pitting unbeaten opponents — Patriots at Bills and Chiefs at Lions.

The third was the Sunday Night Football game between the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints. All three games drew at least one two-point best bet distinction in the contest, which asks our three sports writers to make six selections per week against the Westgate Las Vegas Supercontest lines.

Read below for all of our week 4 picks and best bets.

Case Keefer

Points: 11 (10-8)

Panthers plus-4.5 at Texans

Redskins plus-3 at Giants

Chiefs minus-6.5 at Lions

Buccaneers plus-9.5 at Rams

Bengals plus-3.5 at Steelers

Two-point best bet: Titans plus-4 at Falcons. Don't overrate the result of one game — especially a Thursday Night Football game — and don't underestimate the benefit of extra time to prepare. Tennessee is at worst evenly-matched with Atlanta give all the latter's injuries, and has a situational edge on a 10-day week off of a 20-7 loss to the Jaguars.

Ray Brewer

Points: 10 (8-10)

Lions plus-6.5 vs. Chiefs

Vikings plus-1.5 at Bears

Saints plus-2.5 vs. Cowboys

Rams minus-9.5 vs. Buccaneers

Falcons minus-4 vs. Titans

Two-point best bet: Bills plus-7 vs. Patriots. The Patriots are overrated. Yes, they are this generation’s dynasty. And, yes, Tom Brady has proven his doubters repeatedly wrong. But, come on? New England has easily beaten the Steelers, Jets and Dolphins — three teams still searching for a win. Buffalo, which is also undefeated, is a significant increase in competition.

Justin Emerson

Points: 8 (6-12)

Raiders plus-6.5 at Colts

Patriots minus-7 at Bills

Rams minus-9.5 vs. Buccaneers

Jaguars plus-3 at Broncos

Saints plus-2.5 vs. Cowboys

Two-point best bet: Chiefs minus-6.5 at Lions. There was a joke that a friend and I had when betting college football the last few years, and it was always, "Take Free Money Bama.” Betting on Alabama to cover its premier nonconference game was an inevitability. These days, Free Money Chiefs isn’t out of the question. I’m not sure who can beat them, but it won’t be the Lions.

Mike Grimala

Points: 8 (6-12)

Ravens minus-6.5 vs. Browns

Falcons minus-4 vs. Titans

Patriots minus-7 at Bills

Vikings plus-1.5 at Bears

Broncos minus-3 vs. Jaguars

Two-point best bet: Cowboys minus-2.5 at Saints. Based on what we’ve seen from Teddy Bridgewater in his career, he’s serviceable at best. The Cowboys are better than serviceable, even as the visiting team at a tough venue like the Superdome.

Past Winners: 2012 — Case Keefer; 2013 — Case Keefer, Ray Brewer (tie); 2014 — Case Keefer; 2015 — Case Keefer; 2016 — Ray Brewer; 2017 — Case Keefer, Jesse Granger (tie); 2018 — Case Keefer

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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