Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 13 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Dec. 3, 2020 | 2 a.m.

Betting football during a pandemic giveth, and betting football during a pandemic taketh away.

Two plays in last week’s pick’em column illustrated just how much luck can be involved when betting early on the NFL early in the week amid current circumstances — and how much that luck can cut both ways.

I had Saints -6 against the Broncos, which ended up being one of the best values of all-time when the latter’s entire quarterback room was ruled out of the game for contract-tracing reasons after Jeff Driskel tested positive. The Saints closed -17 ahead of their 31-3 victory.

But I also had Ravens +5.5 against the Steelers, more or less the direct opposite from the first scenario after Baltimore dealt with an outbreak to see the game postponed six days. The Ravens closed +10.5, and though they somehow managed to cover my wager in a 19-14 loss, making a bet 5 points removed from the closing number across two key numbers is nothing to be excited about.

If I make more bets like that long-term, I'm going broke. The lesson here should be one of caution — There’s no reason to get overextended on too many games, especially not this season.

I’ll carry that forward by focusing on quality, not quantity, with my picks for the rest of what’s lived up to its billing as a one-of-a-kind season.

Read below for picks on every Week 13 game, separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. The record for the year stands at 95-79-3 after a 7-9 Week 12 performance.

Plays (29-26)

Los Angeles Chargers pick’em vs. New England Patriots It’s a statistical anomaly that the Chargers have lost five straight against the spread, including all but one outright, given how well they’re playing. They’re superior to the Patriots in almost every area, and even a downgrade for a coaching mismatch shouldn’t go this far.

Tennessee Titans -5.5 vs. Cleveland Browns Both teams are 8-3 on the season, but the Titans’ point differential is a whopping 60 points better than the Browns’. Lock in this number before it gets to 6, or potentially even 6.5 or 7.

Los Angeles Rams -3 at Arizona Cardinals By any set of advanced metrics measuring team efficiency — Football Outsiders’ DVOA, EPA per play, etc. — the Rams dwarf the Cardinals. Los Angeles beat Arizona by a combined 34 points in two meetings last year, and even though both teams are improved this year, there’s not much suggesting the series will go any differently.

Leans (25-23-3)

Indianapolis Colts -3 at Houston Texans Houston rates last in the NFL in rushing offense by Football Outsiders’ DVOA, one of many reasons not to overreact to Indianapolis’ 45-26 loss to Tennessee as 3-point favorites last week after it allowed Derrick Henry to run wild. This spread was 3.5 before the blowout loss, and that’s still where it belongs.

Detroit Lions +3 at Chicago Bears Detroit outplayed Chicago the first time the teams played this season, despite a 27-23 loss as 2.5-point favorites, and now should get a boost with Darrell Bevell taking over as interim coach from the disliked Matt Patricia. This would have been a play at +4 or +4.5, but unfortunately, those numbers didn’t last long.

New York Giants +10 at Seattle Seahawks Is the drop-off from Daniel Jones to Colt McCoy worth 2.5 points? That’s what this line is implying after it shot from 7.5 to 10 upon news of the former’s hamstring injury, but I’m not convinced there’s much of a difference between the two Giants’ quarterbacks.

Guesses (41-30)

Atlanta Falcons +3 vs. New Orleans Saints Despite two wins in two starts, I still have my reservations about Taysom Hill as a starting-caliber NFL quarterback. Seeing him for the second time in three weeks should set up the improving Atlanta defense for success even though it was mediocre in a 24-9 loss to New Orleans on Nov. 22.

Green Bay Packers -9 vs. Philadelphia Eagles Count pass defense among Philadelphia’s numerous problems as the Eagles rank 20^th in the NFL in the category by DVOA. That’s not encouraging going into a game against the best passing offense it’s seen all season.

San Francisco 49ers +2.5 vs. Buffalo Bills Despite Buffalo’s 8-3 record, it’s not without weaknesses, namely its rush defense and over-reliance on Stefon Diggs for explosive plays. San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan and his staff are adept enough tacticians to scheme those weaknesses into factors.

Miami Dolphins -11.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals If the Dolphins’ offense can produce at an even an average clip — which given its volatility is no guarantee — then they shouldn’t have any trouble with this number. Bengals quarterback Brandon Allen is going to have problems throwing against Dolphins cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones.

Minnesota Vikings -10 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Minnesota’s offense versus Jacksonville’s defense makes for a major mismatch, as the latter rates dead-last in the NFL in giving up 8.3 yards per pass attempt. This number should climb over 10 by at least a half point before kickoff.

New York Jets +8 vs. Las Vegas Raiders With last week’s 43-6 shellacking at Atlanta, Las Vegas showed its floor is almost as low as the Jets’. In fairness, the Raiders’ ceiling is much higher but the second game on a back-to-back cross-country road trip is unlikely to bring out the top end of its potential.

Washington Football Team +8.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers The Steelers have three fewer days to prepare coming off of a Wednesday night game while the Football Team has three more days to prepare coming off of a Thanksgiving win. Pittsburgh’s offense is also mediocre and should preclude it from laying more than a touchdown to most teams in the NFL anyway.

Kansas City Chiefs -14 vs. Denver Broncos This is the correct number, but boil it down, and the matchup pairs the best team in the NFL against the second-worst. There’s always going to be more peace of mind siding with the former.

Baltimore Ravens -8.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys I have a hard time believing the Ravens don't get it together enough to at least reach the playoffs. With the bulk of their COVID-19 infected players back, going up against a dreadful Dallas team appears to be a likely starting point for Baltimore's rebound. 

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.