Super Bowl by the odds: Vegas pick and perspective from Miami

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Jan. 31, 2020 | 2 a.m.

It’s a time-honored tradition for Super Bowl veterans or teammates to reach out and give advice to less-experienced players going into the game.

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo had quite the texting-messaging mentor last week in former teammate Tom Brady ahead of Sunday’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Hard Rock Stadium. The six-time champion with the New England Patriots imparted the type of wisdom you’d expect on his one-time understudy.

“Just ‘Go win, treat it like another game,’” Brady texted, according to Garoppolo.

Bettors would be smart to do the same. The Super Bowl may feel like it should count for more, but it doesn’t.

A winning point-spread ticket will pay the same it did for, say, a midseason snoozer between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals. Gamblers can indulge in the sea of props more if they want, but as Brady also told Garoppolo, the best approach is sticking with the same process and handling business.

I’m taking those words to heart as I finish off what’s already locked in as the second-best season in the history of this column, which picks every NFL game against the spread all year. My record sits at 142-120-4 — 41-28-1 on plays, 49-40 on leans and 52-52-3 on guesses. It’s below the 2017-2018 season’s 148-111-8, but not significantly and that’s superfluous anyway.

The focus on the Super Bowl should be limited to, ‘ just go win,’ which I’ll do below in handicapping the final game of the season and sprinkling in some thoughts from players.

San Francisco 49ers plus-1 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, over/under: 54.

A refreshing thing about Super Bowl 54: Neither the Chiefs nor the 49ers are tugging at the, “no one believed in us,” strings.

San Francisco could more reasonably rally around the platitude than many of its progenitors considering they were a long shot to even make the playoffs coming into the season and enter the final game as an underdog. Instead, the 49ers appear to be actively fighting against it.

“Look what they’ve done,” 49ers fullback Kyle Jusczyk said of the Chiefs. “Someone’s got to be the underdog, right?”

The 49ers are hardly even an underdog. They’re currently Even money to win outright on the money line, with the Chiefs coming back at minus-120 (risking $1.20). Adjust for the house’s hold and the line implies a 48.7 percent chance San Francisco wins a sixth all-time franchise championship.

Liability varies depending on the sports book, with just as many reporting more money coming in on the 49ers than the Chiefs.

It makes sense considering San Francisco has been the more impressive team in the playoffs, at least on the surface. The 49ers never trailed the Vikings or Packers, winning by a combined 34 points.

The Chiefs beat the Texans and Titans by a similar margin of 32 points, but that’s a slightly softer route to the Super Bowl and they fell into a double-digit hole in both games.

“The last two years I’ve played, I feel like we’ve really gotten off to great starts and scored a lot of points, and in the last two games, we haven’t been able to do that as much,” Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes said. “So for us, it’s about going in with the right mindset and not trying to do too much.”Mahomes is absolutely right; he’s directed two of the best offenses in NFL history the last two years. Being alarmed by a two-quarter sample of bad starts is a form of recency bias.

Look at how those games ended up. The Chiefs had a combined 2.9 yard per play advantage over the Titans and Texans; the 49ers were only at 1.7 versus the Packers and Vikings.

With an added emphasis on a fast start, the Chiefs should certainly play better straight out of the locker room in the Super Bowl. The question then is if the 49ers can keep up.

They’ve shown more than enough to indicate they’re capable. If anything, San Francisco’s offense is getting shortchanged as it’s been only slightly less efficient than Kansas City on the year.

The Chiefs average 6.3 yards per play; the 49ers average 6 yards per play. It might be a surprise based on the personnel — Garoppolo has hardly shown to be in Mahomes’ class — but shouldn’t be when considering the coaching.

Coach Kyle Shanahan has schemed the 49ers to success all season.

“His understanding offense is the best I’ve ever been around,” 49ers captain and 13-year veteran tackle Joe Staley said.

The Chiefs are wondering aloud what Shanahan’s game plan will look like for the Super Bowl. Does he stick with the run, anchored by Raheem Mostert lately, or unleash Garoppolo as he’s been wont to do in spots where the opponents wouldn’t expect it.

Kansas City must have schemed heavier towards the former out of pure necessity. The Chiefs’ pass defense, largely directed by team leader Tyrann Mathieu, has been above-average all year. While they’ve improved against the run too, the front remains more suspect.

The 49ers are terrific everywhere on defense, but great offense is more consistent than great defense. The Chiefs are going to get their points.

Heck, they’ll probably lead by double digits. They might lead by double digits too early.

For more than 20 years, football fans have seen what happens when coach Andy Reid gets up by double digits too early. He’s a great coach but continually mismanages clock and endgame situations and has never made any strides to address the shortcoming.

Shanahan is too shrewd not to exploit the Chiefs if they start throwing out basic rush plays, soft coverages and other overly cautious measures.

Expect Kansas City to lead by two touchdowns in the third quarter or going into the fourth quarter. Expect San Francisco to roar back but ultimately come up tantalizingly short — not unlike its last Super Bowl appearance when it stalled at the goal line to lose 34-31 to the Ravens in 2013.

Play: Chiefs minus-1.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.