Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 3 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Sept. 24, 2020 | 2 a.m.

Bettors always remember the bad beats and rarely recall the lucky wins.

That’s why I want to take a moment to recognize that a great deal of fortune was paramount in a banner pick’em performance a week ago. I went 12-4 but luck was key, especially to secure a winning 3-1 week on plays.

Two picks practically wound up as coin flips, and they both fell my way. First, Buccaneers running back Leonard Fournette broke through for a meaningless 46-yard touchdown rush with 1:49 remaining to help beat the Panthers 31-17 and cover the 8.5-point spread.

Then, on Sunday Night Football, Seahawks -4 against the Patriots came down to one final play from the 1-yard line. The Seattle defense stuffed New England quarterback Cam Newton to hold onto a 35-30 victory.

Cue the sigh of relief, and don’t forget the feeling when breaks inevitably go the other way to make for losing bets later in the season.

Read below for picks on every Week 3 game, separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. The overall record on the year picking every game stands 21-10-1.

Plays (5-5)

Atlanta Falcons -3 vs. Chicago Bears The Falcons’ Achilles heel — well, aside from their rightfully ridiculed inability to hold onto big leads — is their secondary, a weakness the Bears look ill-quipped to attack. With a pair of nail-biting four-point wins, the Bears are the most fortunate 2-0 team in the NFL.

New Orleans Saints -3 vs. Green Bay Packers This spread jumped 1.5 points, through a key number and onto another one after the Saints’ 34-24 loss to the Raiders on Monday Night Football. That’s too much, as despite Drew Brees’ clearly diminishing arm strength, they still gained 7.4 yards per play and remain efficient enough to put up big points on any team.

Dallas Cowboys +5 at Seattle Seahawks Against similar schedule strengths — including a game apiece against Atlanta — Dallas sits at 0.8 net yards per play to Seattle’s 0.3 net yards per play. The Seahawks’ offense is operating at a high level at the moment, but they might meet their match in a high-flying Cowboys attack capable of keeping up.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals Cincinnati is dead-last in the NFL at -2 net yards per play and has issues all over its roster. The number on this game was Philadelphia -7.5 coming into the season, and with the Eagles getting healthier, it’s an overreaction to sit this much lower, and across a key number, after two games.

Denver Broncos +6.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Station Casinos brazenly appears to be one of the only shops in the world offering 6.5, which elevates this to a play. Denver is one place where extra home-field advantage still applies even without fans given the altitude, and there’s not much of a drop-off from starting quarterback Drew Lock to backup Jeff Driskel.

Detroit Lions +6 at Arizona Cardinals The hype on the Cardinals has spun out of control as they still have defensive limitations. The Lions are the first team they’ve faced that can really attack those deficiencies behind Matthew Stafford's arm and a deep arsenal of weapons now getting healthy.

Leans (6-1-1)

Houston Texans +4 at Pittsburgh Steelers The Texans would be 2-0 with a better point differential than the Steelers’ +15 if they faced the latter’s schedule, which has consisted of narrow wins over the Giants and Broncos. This was a play at the opening number of +6, but quite possibly a pass all together if it reaches +3.5 by kickoff.

New York Giants +4.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers The severity of the 49ers’ injury situation can’t be overstated as virtually all of their most impactful players are expected to miss this game. They deserve adjustments for coaching and continuity advantages but not one this large when the line should be no more than a field goal.

Cleveland Browns -7 vs. Washington Football Team Cleveland’s offensive line has been terrific and should neutralize Washington’s biggest advantage, its defensive line. Overall, the Browns have played much more efficiently than their 1-1 record, -27 point differential indicates, making them a buy-on team.

Los Angeles Rams +2.5 at Buffalo Bills Let’s slow down on writing the Bills into the Super Bowl just yet considering they’ve beaten quite possibly the two worst teams in the NFL, the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, to start the season. The Rams having to travel to the East Coast on back-to-back weeks is concerning, but not enough to dissuade a bet if this spread gets back up to Bills -3.

Tennessee Titans -2.5 at Minnesota Vikings Minnesota’s statistical profile doesn’t look as bad as the team is being made out to be, but that’s largely because its racked up statistics in garbage-time after falling into big deficits in two straight games. Tennessee’s statistical profile doesn’t look as impressive as its 2-0 record, but its problems — including a lack of explosion on offense — pale in comparison to Minnesota’s.

Guesses (10-4)

New England Patriots -6 vs. Las Vegas Raiders There’s no overreaction to the Raiders’ hot start here, as this number sits right where it should be. When the spread looks correct in New England games under Bill Belichick, however, it’s been profitable to back the Patriots for nearly two decades.

Carolina Panthers +6.5 at Los Angeles Chargers Chargers’ games are going to be slow-paced and defensively-focused all year, lending themselves to both unders and underdogs. The Panthers played better than the final score indicated in last week’s loss to the Buccaneers, racking up a 0.5 yard per play edge.

Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Baltimore might not be the better team than Kansas City all season, but it’s the better team right now. The number is right but there can’t be any picking against a team as dominant as the Ravens until numbers are inflated to an undeniable degree.

New York Jets +11 at Indianapolis Colts Defensive-backfield injuries are piling up for the Colts. It may not matter against the hapless Jets, but given the uncertainty of the effect going forward, the spread doesn’t belong in double digits.

Miami Dolphins +3 at Jacksonville Jaguars This is another Thursday Night Football stinker to avoid as line moves have taken all value out of the two primary betting options. The Jaguars may have been worth consideration when the line opened a pick’em, and the over was surely a play at 44 points before it climbed four points to a key number, but those numbers aren’t available now.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.