Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Sunday Sweats: Five bets to add to your week 3 NFL Sunday card

Raiders Defeat Saints, 34-24

Associated Press

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) avoids a tackle by Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Arden Key (99) during the second half of an NFL football game, Monday, Sept. 21, 2020, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/David Becker)

Exotic wagers conspired to sink Las Vegas sports books last Sunday.

The house had a losing week 2 largely by virtue of all but two favorites winning outright, and therefore covering virtually all moneyline parlays and teaser options. It’s no surprise that last week's version of this column was part of the winning avalanche considering it has a couple categories dedicated to such wagers.

Be careful going forward. Favorites and overs, which also went 11-5 over week 2 as a whole, aren’t going to continue to cash at the same clip.

I’ll keep trying to navigate the landmines to and find some additional value as a complement to the primary Wednesday pick’em column with the Sunday Sweats piece.

Read this week’s version below. For accounting purposes, all plays outside of the pick’em will be linked and counted in the Sunday Sweats records. The records are attached to each individual category and totaled at the bottom of the page with the monetary figure calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing $100 on each play.

Tasty Total (3-2, $72.73): Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers over 45.5 points (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

I’m not as sold on the Pittsburgh defense being as impenetrable as it’s made out to be. It’s dangerous just to assume that the Steelers will continue to stop opponents at the same rate they did last year. They were set up for success by facing two of the league’s worst offenses, the Giants and Broncos, to start the season. Deshaun Watson and the Texans are another level. They’ll score their share, and the Steelers are also capable of keeping up. This is a potential shootout not being lined as one.

Two-team Teaser (1-1, -$20): Los Angeles Rams +8 & Denver Broncos +12 at -120 (William Hill)

I’m breaking from Wong teaser strategy for the first time, because the only way to employ it this week is to pair the Rams with the Vikings. Given their current form, I can’t bet the Vikings. Passing through the 3 and the 7 with the Rams looks like a wise maneuver, though. And, if there’s not another game available to make the same move with, then one of the next best options is passing through 7 and 10 on a contest with a low total. There shouldn’t be many points scored in Tampa Bay’s trip to Denver, so getting +12 is an attractive option.   

Moneyline parlay (2-0, $213): Philadelphia Eagles & Cleveland Browns to win at +101 (Circa Sports)

Same strategy as usual in this category: Identify two sides I’m confident will win, find a book where they’re both available at a below-market moneyline price and tie them together. It made for an Ohio connection this week, fading Cincinnati and backing Cleveland. There’s a chance the Bengals and the Washington Football Team are the two worst teams in the NFL. At the least, they’re two of the five worst. I don’t mind counting on them both to lose on almost any given week.

Prop-hunting (1-2, -$109.09): Alvin Kamara over 64.5 rushing yards -110 (SuperBook)

I think the Saints are going to be playing from ahead, perhaps even multiple scores ahead by the fourth quarter. That’s going to make for a lot of rushing attempts. The Packers’ rush defense ranks 30th in the NFL by Football Outsiders’ DVOA through two games. It feels a little grimy, and against my usual philosophy, to be on two running backs’ overs on one NFL Sunday — the other play is in the Raiders at Patriots game day spread — but the price is right on both if the games play out the way I envision.

Non-football play: (2-0, $210.91): Erik Jones +130 vs. Kurt Busch in South Point 400 (William Hill)

Since the NASCAR Cup playoffs descends upon Las Vegas Sunday, let’s throw back to one of my go-to categories in the quarantine five sports, five bets column and go racin’. Jones has excelled on the basic, 1.5-mile oval tracks like Las Vegas Motor Speedway all year. In this setup especially, I much prefer his Joe Gibbs Racing team to Busch’s Chip Ganassi Racing. Motivation is a question since neither driver is still in the playoffs and Gibbs didn’t resign Jones, but it’s a risk worth taking at this inflated price.  

Sunday Sweats overall record: 9-5, $367.55

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

Join the Discussion:

Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.

Full comments policy