Weekend wagers: Five bets on five sports to keep up hot streak

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Aug. 14, 2021 | 2 a.m.

The heater continued for another week in the column, steaming our bottom line to above $5,000 in profits for the first time in history.

After a 3-0 performance last week, the picks have now gone 8-1 over the last three columns with a healthy dose of future bets simultaneously accumulating. Sports betting will always have its ups and downs, making it important to enjoy the high points and prolong them for as long as possible.

Now that I may have effectively jinxed the chances of keeping the run chugging along, let’s get to this week’s bets. I’m sticking with the five plays across five sports again with four events taking place over the weekend.

Find them all below. Records are attached individually by sport, with the cumulative at the bottom of the page. The monetary figure is calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing a $100 wager on each pick. Any picks outside of the column will be linked and included in the record total. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time.

Golf (17-9, $1,084.94): Alex Smalley -125 head-to-head vs. Tyler McCumber in third round of Wyndham Championship (BetMGM)

The market sometimes struggles to accurately price unknown quantities, which might be what's happening here with Smalley. The recent All-American from Duke is a member of Sedgefield Country Club, the site of this week's PGA Tour event, and got in the field via sponsor exemption. He's making the most of it by absolutely crushing the ball, sitting second in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and third in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green through two rounds. With a slight uptick in putting, Smalley — who currently sits tied for eighth and six strokes back of leader Russell Henley — should threaten for a top five. Putting is the main reason McCumber, who's currently tied with Smalley, is getting by and his hot streak on the greens might be tough to keep going. The University of Florida product is a decent veteran, but Smalley has a higher ceiling going forward — especially this week.

MLB (8-6, $223.85): Kansas City Royals +105 vs. St. Louis Cardinals (STN Sports)

Betting a team as hopeless as the Royals this time of the year is never fun, but the plus-price next to their name makes it hard to avoid. Royals starter Brad Keller has better advanced numbers than Cardinals starter Jon Lester across the board. Kansas City’s offense also isn’t as far behind as St. Louis’ as the consensus seems to suggest. The Royals had scored more runs than the Cardinals this season in one fewer game going into Friday’s action. Kansas City’s hard-hit percentage is also higher. Despite a sweep of the Pirates earlier this week, the Cardinals struggle away from home. They make keep up their recent hot streak, but I’d tab the probability at less than 50% to make this a worthwhile wager.  

Soccer (9-6, $300.23): Tottenham +1 -125 vs. Manchester City (South Point)

Everyone is focused on Harry Kane, who’s demanding a transfer from Tottenham to Man City, but maybe they should be more focused on the rest of the lineup for the defending Premier League champions. Manchester City is still far and away England’s most talented team — and came into the season as a -150 favorite to repeat as champions — but it won’t be at full strength on Sunday. Neither Kevin DeBruyne nor Phil Foden are expected to play, and several other players arrived late after the international season to leave their status in doubt. Tottenham should have closer to its full side, potentially even including the disgruntled Kane who’s coming off winning his third career Golden Boot last season. This projects as a low-scoring affair likely to result in a draw, or at worse, a 1-goal Manchester City win, in which case this wager would be void.   

NASCAR (16-17, $8.88): Matt DiBenedetto -105 head-to-head vs. Aric Almirola in Big Machine Vodka 400 (William Hill)

For the second straight week, NASCAR heads to a road course as the Cup series will compete on Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s Grand Prix track for the first time on Sunday. This is the seventh road course race of the year, so we’ve begun to obtain an adequate sample to draw upon for handicapping purposes. And that adequate sample paints a clear picture of this matchup: DiBenedetto has been significantly better than Almirola on road courses this year. Neither DiBenedetto nor Almirola is known for their road driving, but the former has maintained above-average speed this year in comparable races while the latter is near the bottom in road statistics ranking NASCAR’s full-time drivers. I’d price DiBenedetto about 30 cents higher, as this line might be getting unduly influenced by an Almirola win two races ago at New Hampshire Motor Speedway that will hold no bearing in Indianapolis.    

College Football (0-0, $0): UCF -3.5 vs. Boise State (BConnected Sports)

I picked a “Week 0” game last week, so let’s jump ahead a few days and go with the marquee matchup of Week 1’s Thursday night slate. These are two of the best, if not the two outright best, Group of Five conference teams of the last several years and they’re both breaking in new coaches this season. That’s a reason to worry, though the adjustment curve might be steeper for Boise State’s Andy Avalos than UCF’s Gus Malzahn. Boise State returns more players, but that can be misleading because UCF went hard on the transfer portal and brought in a number of difference-makers like former Auburn edge rusher Big Kat Bryant. It’s offense where the Knights should really outshine the Broncos, though, as they were far more explosive a year ago and now bring back quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Despite his dismissal from Auburn, Malzahn remains one of the brightest offensive minds in college football and he’ll be able to ensure UCF scores too many points for Boise State to keep up.  

Weekend wagers all-time: 167-150, $5,291.20

Previous pending wagers: Nebraska -7 at Illinois in Week 0; Texas over 8.5 wins +110; Los Angeles Chargers under 9.5 wins -125; Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East +150; Georgia 10-to-1 to win College Football Playoff; Baltimore Ravens 20-to-1 to win Super Bowl; Texas 50-to-1 to win 2022 NCAA Tournament.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.