Vegas pick’em: Handicapping every NFL team’s regular-season win total

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Aug. 18, 2021 | 2 a.m.

Beating the NFL market is one of the toughest things to accomplish in sports betting and totally unrealistic without committing the proper amount of preparation going into the season.

That doesn’t mean the homework has to be tedious. One of the most fulfilling ways to get reacquainted the teams and readjust to what’s new is diving into the win totals.

That’s what I’ve done to kick off another season of Talking Points’ NFL pick’em series where I’ll handicap every game throughout the regular season. I went through win total posted in local, legal sports books and found what I believe to be the biggest edge on each team in the league.   

Read below to find picks for all 32 NFL teams. Picks are labeled in three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and teams are arranged via divisions just like they are in most sports books.  

Buffalo Bills: The Bills made a huge leap last year, winning three more games than they did in 2019 and more than doubling their point differential. Teams that make dramatic one-year ascents are traditionally profitable bets to level out and fall back the next season, going against conventional wisdom that they’ll continue to rise. Lean: Under 11 wins +120 (Circa Sports)

Miami Dolphins: If quarterback Tua Tagovailoa makes significant improvements in his second season — a scenario not out of the question — then Miami could fly over this number. But the Dolphins overachieved a year ago and regression could strike in key areas they relied upon to do so, like snagging a league-high 18 interceptions. Guess: Under 9 wins +115 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

New England Patriots: COVID opt-outs and injuries negatively affected New England’s defense more than any other team in the league last season, making the unit an obvious bounce-back candidate after it was the best in the league two years ago. New England also went on a free-agent spending spree to address every lacking part of its roster and get back into contention. Play: Over 9 wins -140 (SuperBook)

New York Jets: Robert Salah might have been the best coaching hire of the offseason, and rookie Zach Wilson comes with similar promise of high upside, but neither the new coach nor the new quarterback are miracle workers. There are too many holes on the roster to expect much this season. Guess: Under 6 wins -115 (SuperBook).

Houston Texans: Yes, the Texans are going to be bad but this 4-win total implies they’re going to be historically bad. That’s certainly possible, but in a parity-driven league like the NFL, it’s harder than perceived to post a record like 3-14 or 2-15. There’s no value in betting under. Guess: Over 4 wins +110 (SuperBook).

Indianapolis Colts: The Colts’ win total has inched back up despite training camp injuries to two of their most important players, quarterback Carson Wentz and guard Quenton Nelson. There are now reports that both could return sooner than anticipated, but will they be at full strength? And Wentz is a reclamation project that could backfire anyway. Guess: Under 9 wins -110 (SuperBook)

Jacksonville Jaguars: Other rookie quarterbacks might have higher upside or even manage better years, but no one is more of a sure thing than Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence. The front office has surrounded Lawrence with more than enough on offense, and the defense has nowhere to go but up after being by far the league’s worst a season ago. Play: Over 6.5 wins Even money (BetMGM)

Tennessee Titans: Every sign points downwards. The Titans got incredibly lucky a season ago, going 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, and lost heralded offensive coordinator/one of the NFL’s best playcallers in Arthur Smith to the Falcons. Their defense remains one of the least-talented in the league. Play: Under 9.5 wins +110 (Golden Nugget)

Baltimore Ravens: From coronavirus outbreaks to poor close-game luck, the Ravens had a lot break against them last year — and still went 11-5 in a relative down year. No coach consistently makes more sound on-field decisions than John Harbaugh, making it easier to pay up and back Baltimore at a high price. Lean: Over 11 wins +115 (Golden Nugget)

Cincinnati Bengals: Training-camp reports are typically rosy, so it’s a little troubling that everything out of Bengals’ practices indicates second-year quarterback Joe Burrow is struggling in his return from ankle surgery. Cincinnati is a young team with upside, but it’s trapped in a tough division with a brutal schedule. Guess: Under 6.5 wins -105 (STN Sports)

Cleveland Browns: The Browns are being touted far and wide as Super Bowl contenders. What a world. No way this will backfire. In all seriousness, Cleveland didn’t even post a positive point differential last season and is getting too much credit for clobbering a broken-down Pittsburgh team and hanging with a Chad Henne-led Kansas City team in the playoffs. Play: Under 10.5 wins +110 (William Hill)

Pittsburgh Steelers: Expecting anything much better or much worse than dead-average from a flawed-but-talented Steelers’ roster this year feels like a reach. That makes this one of the most perfect win-total lines in the league, and advisable to pick plus money on either side. Guess: Over 8.5 wins +125 (Circa)

Denver Broncos: Regardless of whether Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater wins the job, the Broncos will have one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. That’s likely enough to outweigh how solid the rest of the roster looks. Guess: Under 9 wins -125 (SuperBook)

Kansas City Chiefs: The market struggles to accurately price outliers, and Patrick Mahomes is currently the NFL’s biggest outlier. As long as he stays healthy, there’s no reason to believe Kansas City won’t have one of the best records in the NFL for the fourth straight season. Guess: Over 12 wins -135 (Wynn Sports)

Los Angeles Chargers: Despite bringing in coach Brandon Staley after his spectacular one-season stint as the Rams’ defensive coordinator, the Chargers’ defense has a long way to go and might not have the pieces for an immediate turnaround. On offense, the expectation that quarterback Justin Herbert will not only equal but top his excellent rookie season is quite the assumption. Play: Under 9.5 wins -120 (BetMGM)

Las Vegas Raiders: The Raiders are a decent defense away from being a playoff team, and with additions like edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue and cornerback Casey Hayward Jr., it looks like they may finally have it in training camp. There’s more hype on the Chargers and Broncos, but the Raiders have been the second-most efficient AFC West team behind the Chiefs over the last two seasons. Lean: Over 7.5 wins +110 (Golden Nugget)

Dallas Cowboys: Going from Mike Nolan to Dan Quinn as defensive coordinator is no minor upgrade — expect significantly better performance on that side of the ball. The Cowboys are also the only team in the NFC East, one of the NFL’s worst divisions, with an above-average offense. Lean: Over 9 wins -135 (Circa)

New York Giants: The NFC equivalent of the Broncos, the Giants look relatively well-constructed across the board other than one area. And, unfortunately, that area is the most important position with Daniel Jones having yet to prove he’s an NFL-starting quarterback caliber. Guess: Under 7.5 wins -120 (BConnected Sports)

Philadelphia Eagles: Injuries played a major part in dooming the Eagles last year, meaning they might not be quite as helpless as their 4-11 record indicated. I rate the Eagles and Giants almost dead-even at the bottom of the NFC East, and yet the latter’s win total is a full victory higher. Guess: Over 6.5 wins -130 (Resorts World)

Washington Football Team: After winning the NFC East last year, Washington goes from one of the easiest schedules in the league to one of the toughest. That’s a significant hurdle for both a still-young defense and an offense that will be inherently volatile with turnover-prone, 38-year-old quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. Play: Under 8.5 wins +110 (BetMGM)

Atlanta Falcons: A compelling case can be made either way for the Falcons. They could surprise if new coach Arthur Smith coaxes some late-career magic out of Matt Ryan or they could plummet if the league’s roughest travel schedule, including only seven home games and a trip to London, catches up to them. For the purpose of picking every win total, I’d just take the best plus-price available on either side. Guess: Under 7.5 wins +125 (BetMGM)

Carolina Panthers: Carolina may eclipse expectations if second-year coach Matt Rhule is as shrewd as some insist he is, but its roster is too boringly mediocre to call for that to happen with any confidence. The defense will need several players to break out to rank in the NFL’s top half, which might not even be a possibility for the offense behind quarterback Sam Darnold and a poor offensive line. Guess: Under 7.5 wins -105 (Wynn)

New Orleans Saints: The news of star wide receiver Michael Thomas missing the start of the season dropped this number by nearly one win when factoring in the price. His absence is damaging, but maybe not that damaging. New Orleans will still be formidable defensively and quarterback Jameis Winston, who should beat out Taysom Hill for the starting spot, could easily signal an improvement from 41-year-old Drew Brees last season. Play: Over 9 wins +120 (SuperBook)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Has anyone picked the Tampa Bay under? Allow me to be the first. It’s risky, but the number on the defending Super Bowl champions is inflated. The Buccaneers have the best starting 22 in the NFL but were fortunate to almost totally avoid injuries last year when they still went only 11-5. Lean: Under 12 wins Even money (SuperBook)

Chicago Bears: This really comes down to a referendum on how you highly you think of rookie quarterback Justin Fields and how soon you think he’ll play. If the Ohio State product is all Chicago fans hope he can be, then he should be able to make up for a roster that’s otherwise in flux. That’s a big ask, but the potential reward is high enough with the plus price. Guess: Over 7.5 wins +110 (SuperBook)

Detroit Lions: Laugh all you want about new coach Dan Campbell and his bravado, but he’s immediately an upgrade over Matt Patricia, whom many players detested. Campbell also made sharp hires in offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. Detroit’s talent level is a slight step above teams like Houston and the New York Jets that it’s being priced alongside. Play: Over 4.5 wins -135 (SuperBook)

Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers probably won’t be able to match last year’s MVP production, but it may not matter because he’s got one of the best teams of his career around him. The Packers were fortunate to go 13-3 in each of the last two seasons, but they could fall off and still at least get to 11-6 this year. Guess: Over 10.5 wins -105 (BetMGM)

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings have overperformed market expectations in almost every season since coach Mike Zimmer took over, but that was largely because they used to annually field one of the NFL’s most efficient defenses. The defense took a major step back last year and there’s not much to indicate it’ll be significantly better this year to help make up for an unimaginative offense. Guess: Under 9.5 wins -105 (SuperBook)

Arizona Cardinals: Think of Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury as the anti-John Harbaugh: Always reliable to make the wrong strategic decision. They would be talented enough to overcome that handicap if they were in another division, but the NFC West and a resulting tough schedule leaves hopes grim. Lean: Under 8.5 wins Even money (William Hill)

Los Angeles Rams: The Rams rode the NFL’s best defense to success last year, and it would be borderline unprecedented if the unit could keep the same level of efficiency — especially after not making any major additions in the offseason. Trade-acquisition Matthew Stafford will be an upgrade at quarterback but he’s struggled staying on the field and hasn’t been as effective as popular perception seems to suggest. Lean: Under 10.5 wins -115 (William Hill)

Seattle Seahawks: Like every other year, there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of Seattle including its overperformance in close games and questionable offensive line. And like every other year, the Seahawks will probably work their way around them behind a supernatural effort from quarterback Russell Wilson and a defense that seems to be trending upwards. Lean: Over 9.5 wins -130 (SuperBook)

San Francisco 49ers: If rookie Trey Lance, or even middling veteran Jimmy Garoppolo, can prove competent at quarterback, then no team in the NFL has fewer weaknesses than the 49ers. Unfortunately, their win total mostly reflects that reality so a better way to back the 49ers might be to shoot for higher upside and take them in futures to win the division, NFC and even Super Bowl. Lean: Over 10.5 wins +115 (BetMGM)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.