College football by the odds: Vegas preview and picks of every Week 14 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Dec. 1, 2021 | 2 a.m.

Last week’s final full slate of the regular season brought a long-awaited windfall of good fortune, and not just because the plays (specifically the big plays) broke through for much success.

More important, Week 13’s results helped get three more of my conference-championship futures — many of which were written in Talking Points starting in the summer — through to this weekend. I have five live tickets heading into this week’s conference championship slate — Georgia to win the SEC at +214, Kent State to win the MAC at 8-to-1, San Diego State to win the Mountain West at 12-to-1, Pittsburgh to win the ACC at 17-to-1 and Michigan to win the Big Ten at 17-to-1.

I’m sharing those positions not to take a victory lap, but rather because they’ll have undue influence on this week’s handicapping. It’s unavoidable this time of the year to navigate the game-by-game picks according to futures potential.

With all five of the aforementioned sides favored in their championship games, myriad options abound. I’ll look to make the wisest decision in every case while also trying to improve the overall record picking every game against the spread, which now stands at 351-338-8 (71-75 on plays, 122-104-2 on leans and 158-159-6 on guesses).

Read below for picks on every conference-championship weekend game. Lines are the best available at publication time in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories

Conference USA Championship Game: Western Kentucky pick’em at UTSA, over/under: 71.5. The Hilltoppers lost the first game to the Roadrunners this year, but had a 100-yard advantage and negative fumble-recovery luck. Western Kentucky has gotten better since then — having won all seven games since the loss by double digits — while UTSA has cooled off. Lean: Western Kentucky pick’em.

Pac-12 Championship Game: Oregon +3 vs. Utah in Las Vegas, over/under: 59.5. This is an identical price to the one the Utes gave the Ducks at home two weeks ago. Yes, Utah blew out Oregon 38-7 in that game, but there’s not that big of a difference between these two teams overall. They’ve both been erratic throughout the year, alternating great performances and subpar ones, to make this spread feel like an overreaction in what’s ultimately a pretty evenly matched game. Play: Oregon +3.

Big 12 Championship Game: Baylor +5.5 vs. Oklahoma State in Arlington, Texas, over/under: 47. There’s a reason the +6 and +6.5 spreads that many sports books opened with on Sunday only lasted a couple of hours at most. There’s not near that much separating these two teams, and in what should be a low-scoring game between two of the nation’s better defenses, points are valuable. Play: Baylor +5.5.

MAC Championship Game: Kent State -2.5 at Northern Illinois in Detroit, over/under: 73.5. Northern Illinois could have a magic show on the Strip with the way it escapes some of these games considering the Huskies are 7-2 in contests decided by a touchdown or less this season. They’d be one of the worst conference champions ever. That’s not to say they can't do it, but the current market price isn’t enticing enough to back them — not even at a plus price with my pre-existing position on Kent State. Guess: Kent State -2.5.

Mountain West Conference Championship Game: Utah State +5.5 at San Diego State, over/under: 50. San Diego State’s defensive advantage should make for a wider gap than Utah State’s offensive advantage. I hoped this number would get to 7 where I could play back and attempt to middle on Utah State, but it’s going in the other direction. San Diego State -6 is my fair price. Guess: San Diego State -5.5.

Sun Belt Conference Championship Game: Appalachian State -2.5 at UL-Lafayette, over/under: 53. Here’s another rematch where the result of the first game might be holding too much influence on the current line. The Mountaineers took action leading into the Week 7 matchup, going from -2 to -4, before the Ragin Cajuns blew them out 41-13 largely by virtue of a -3 turnover margin. That’s unlikely to repeat, and with Appalachian State having the better roster and Louisiana coach Billy Napier on his way out to Florida, this is a good spot for the visitors. Play: Appalachian State -2.5.

SEC Championship Game: Georgia -7 vs. Alabama in Atlanta, over/under: 50.5. The Crimson Tide looked mediocre the last two weeks, and yet still racked up a more than 2 yards per play advantage in narrow wins over Arkansas and Auburn. The Bulldogs have been far more impressive, but it’s come against a weaker schedule. The Georgia -4 price at Circa the last two weeks seemed like a better line. South Point’s +7 line on the Crimson Tide represents undeniable value and makes it an easy choice for me to shoot for the middle and root for a small Georgia victory. Play: Alabama +7.

American Athletic Conference Championship Game: Houston +10.5 at Cincinnati, over/under: 54.5. The spread is about right, but this game means everything for what the Bearcats have worked toward for the last two years. It’s hard to imagine them not being at their best. They’ve been at their best the last two weeks too and appear to be peaking. If they can maintain it, they’re too much for the Cougars. Lean: Cincinnati -10.5.

ACC Championship Game: Wake Forest +3 vs. Pittsburgh in Charlotte, over/under: 72.5. Dave Clawson has done a terrific job with this year’s Demon Deacons, but coaching might be their only advantage at Bank of America Stadium. Pittsburgh has the better offense, better defense and should win its first ACC title. Lean: Pittsburgh -3.

Big Ten Championship Game: Iowa +11.5 vs. Michigan in Indianapolis, over/under: 43.5. The Hawkeyes have made life miserable for most of their opponents, ranking sixth in the nation in giving up only 4.4 yards per play, and the Wolverines should be no different. Michigan has too many playmakers on offense not to break through on a couple occasions, but double-digits is a high asking price. Out of all my futures, the line makes this one the biggest no-brainer to hedge. Play: Iowa +11.5.

USC +4.5 at California, over/under: 58.5. This is a reschedule of a COVID-canceled game, and the only question is why it’s even necessary to reschedule. The spread is too big if USC puts forth any effort, but that’s also a big if. Guess: USC +4.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or