Sunday Sweats: Five bets to add to your NFL Week 13 card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Dec. 4, 2021 | 4 p.m.

Underdogs have continued to make it their year in the NFL.

Teams taking points have now posted a winning record against the spread in five straight weeks after going 8-7 versus the number in Week 12. The tear has put underdogs at 99-76-1 against the spread on the year.

With a lot of the haves playing the have-nots in Week 13 — there are six games with spreads of more than a touchdown — is this when it flips? Sunday Sweats needs something to flip after back-to-back big losing weeks has the column clinging to a small profit on the year.

Read below for this week’s bets in five different categories as part of the Sunday Sweats column. Bets placed outside of the college and pro football pick’ems, including a weekly prop on the Raiders’ game that runs Sunday, will be tracked here.

Tasty Total (6-6, -$58.50): Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears under 43.5 -115 (Boyd Sports)

Looking towards the under is always the first priority with a December game at Soldier Field, largely because of the wind but there are even more factors pointing that way in this matchup. Winds could get up to 20 miles per hour, but it’s also likely to rain. In a game between two teams with above-average defenses, the potential for a low-scoring matchup seems high. This total is as low as 42 elsewhere, but with Boyd staying stubborn, I’ll gladly pick off the attractive price.

Two-team Teaser (10-3, $533.30): Minnesota Vikings -1 & Miami Dolphins pick’em -120 (William Hill)

There is one traditional teaser option on the board — Washington Football Team +7.5 and Arizona Cardinals -1.5. But I don’t like either of those sides. It’s probably a better bet than the option I ultimately landed on just by virtue of passing through the 3s and 7s, but the spreads in both the Minnesota and Miami games may close higher to add value too. Even without Dalvin Cook, the Vikings should be able to handle the Lions. And the Dolphins’ four-game win streak is starting to look real, at least real enough to beat the mediocre Giants with a backup quarterback. And that’s all this bet calls for it — two teams with big advantages winning outright.

Moneyline Parlay (5-7, $567.74): Buccaneers, Eagles & Chargers +301 (South Point)

God bless the South Point for having a number of better-than-market spreads this week. The Chargers, playing at the Bengals, are my favorite underdog to win outright on the board, and South Point has them at +145 compared to several other shops offering +135. Philadelphia -260 over the New York Jets is significantly lower than other books. It’s a more risky play given quarterback Jalen Hurts’ injury status but I believe he’ll play. It might be better just to leave the Buccaneers out — reducing this to a two-team, +239 parlay — but -525 isn’t a high enough price for the defending champions against the Falcons. They’re -550 elsewhere, and could justifiably even close at -600.

Player Prop (10-15, -$603.64): Javonte Williams any time touchdown -110 (Boyd Sports)

The Chiefs still can’t stop the run, and the Broncos’ rookie out of North Carolina has been among the most electric runners in the NFL all year. He’s just never gotten the bulk of Denver’s carries. That changes on Sunday Night Football with Melvin Gordon sidelined to an injury. The Broncos lean on their ground game and hang with the Chiefs on the back of Williams. His yardage props were surprisingly hard to find so far but worth taking when more sports books posts numbers. Boyd was the only place that had Williams rushing yards’ total posted currently, listing 72.5 at a -114 price. That’s not a bad bet, but I’d rather hold out and look for better on Sunday. With the touchdown price cheaper, I’ll go that route. Check the Raiders’ gameday preview tomorrow morning for another prop bet.

Non-football Play (5-7, -$185.76): Philadelphia Flyers +115 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Boyd Sports)

There was a 50 cent line move the last time Tampa subbed in Brian Elliott for a start in net over Andrei Vasilevskiy – a 4-3 loss at St. Louis earlier this week. The move to the backup goalie could happen again Sunday with the Lightning on a back-to-back following tonight’ sgame in Boston where Vasilevskiy will start. Even if the Vezina Trophy favorite does start two nights in a row, this wouldn’t be a terrible price to be stuck with a more rested flyers’ team playing at home. Philadelphia is nothing special but its better than its current seven-game losing streak and has been unlucky to find itself in such a slide by being on the wrong end of every close game.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 36-38, $253.14

Weekend betting column all-time: 211-200, $4,802.31

Previous pending wagers: Los Angeles Chargers under 9.5 wins -125; Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East +150; Georgia 10-to-1 to win College Football Playoff; Baltimore Ravens 20-to-1 to win Super Bowl; Jon Rahm 12-to-1 to win 2022 Masters; Texas 50-to-1 to win 2022 NCAA Tournament.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or