Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 14 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Dec. 9, 2021 | 2 a.m.

A frontrunner has finally emerged for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award after more than three months of a logjam at the top of futures betting boards. And it’s a familiar figure.

Tom Brady moved to the favorite at +175 (risking $1 to win $1.75) odds at Circa Sports after leading the Buccaneers to a third straight win and cover last week. No one had previously gotten below +300 this season.

Brady will almost surely fall even further if the Buccaneers get past their toughest remaining opponent this week, the Bills. The award would be the fourth of his career, and first since 2017, and put him alone in second-place all-time behind Peyton Manning’s five MVP trophies.

The 44-year-old Brady sits first in the NFL in passing yards, 3,771, and touchdowns, 34, for a team that the market has consistently rated as the best in the league. There’s still work to be done, but he’s a rightful favorite for now.

Read below for picks on every Week 14 game including Bills at Buccaneers. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. The record for the year picking every game against the spread stands at 95-98-1 after an 5-9 record in Week 13.

Plays (35-29)

Carolina Panthers -2.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons This might be a first: Seeing a team with a point differential 100 points better than their opponents’ — if you round up as the Panthers are actually -17 to the Falcons’ -116 — favored by less than a field goal at home. Carolina is also in a beneficial scheduling spot coming off of a bye week.

San Francisco 49ers pick’em at Cincinnati Bengals The 49ers are better than the Bengals in virtually every area of every efficiency metric calculated. Fading Cincinnati has become an unanticipated weekly tradition in this column, but there’s really no way around it against a still-undervalued San Francisco side.

Los Angeles Rams +2.5 at Arizona Cardinals The Cardinals sit 10-2 overall despite a 9-3 expected record by Football Outsiders’ estimated wins metric — which emphasizes performance in key situations and filters out garbage time. The Rams are 8-4 overall despite a league-best 11-1 expected record by estimated wins. Current records tend to regress toward the expected records over time, and it might start here.

Buffalo Bills +3.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Buy low on the Bills, which were undone more by the elements than their own play in a 14-10 Monday Night Football loss to the Patriots. Sitting in first in the league against the pass by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings, the Bills’ defense is capable of challenging Brady more than he’s seen so far this year. Hold off on those MVP bets.

Leans (31-33)

Kansas City Chiefs -9 vs. Las Vegas Raiders The Chiefs closed -3 at Las Vegas three weeks ago, a spread that implied they’d be around -8 in the same game at home after a standard adjustment. But a larger-than-average adjustment is arguably necessary after the Chiefs beat the Raiders 41-14 and now play at Arrowhead Stadium, which has traditionally made for of the bigger home-field advantages in the league.

Cleveland Browns -1.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens Losing cornerback Marlon Humphrey is the proverbial cherry on top of the extra-large sundae of Ravens’ injuries throughout the year and makes betting on them out of the question for the time being. The significance of the All Pro can’t be overstated as playing without him feels like the final hit that ensures Baltimore never figures it out enough to turn into a true contender.

New York Jets +5.5 vs. New Orleans Saints Jets +6 or +6.5 was a play, but they’re a bit tougher sell now that they’ve sunk under the semi-key number. It still seems wiser than counting on the Saints, which are lost offensively and have rated to 28^th in the league in offensive EPA (expected points added) per play in the five games since losing quarterback Jameis Winston to injury.

Detroit Lions +8 at Denver Broncos Fun fact: The Lions have the fifth-best against the spread record in the league at 8-4 after covering their last five games straight. They’ve been consistently undervalued because they’re not as uncompetitive as their 1-10-1 straight-up record suggests, and shouldn’t be getting more than a touchdown here.

Los Angeles Chargers -10.5 vs. New York Giants Look past the initial sticker shock and realize whom the mediocre Chargers’ defense will likely be playing against. In line for the start at quarterback for the Giants, at least unless there’s unforeseen positive news on Daniel Jones or Mike Glennon, is Jake Fromm, who was claimed off the Bills’ practice squad less than two weeks ago.

Dallas Cowboys -4 at Washington Football Team Yes, Washington has won four in row but it’s also been outgained on a per-play basis in five straight. Dallas is only the second winning team its played in the stretch — alongside Tampa Bay, which Washington beat 29-19 — and should be able to put an end by the unforeseen ascent by winning by closer to a touchdown.

Minnesota Vikings -3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers This line is deflated by performance in close games that could have gone either way. Pittsburgh has gone 4-1-1 in games decided by less than a touchdown this season, while Minnesota is only 3-5 in the same situation.

Guesses (29-36-1)

Chicago Bears +12.5 at Green Bay Packers The first game between these NFC North rivals was by no means a blowout as the Packers scored late to win 24-14 and cover the 5.5-point spread. It’s not advisable betting against Aaron Rodgers and the 10-2 against-the-spread Packers right now, but this is a pretty stark adjustment to the line after the first meeting.

Tennessee Titans -8.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars This spread might be a little high based on Tennessee’s current injury situation, but the hope is the Titans get at least a few players back coming out of a bye week. It’s also difficult to quantify just how large of a coaching edge the Titans’ Mike Vrabel represents over the Jaguars’ Urban Meyer.

Seattle Seahawks -7.5 at Houston Texans Houston has entered near un-bettable territory by sinking to new lows over the last month and a half. The Texans have been outgained by more than 2.5 yards per play in three of their last six games with no signs of a turnaround imminent

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or