College football by the odds: Bowl pick’em Against the Spread Part 3

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Dec. 29, 2021 | 2 a.m.

LSU’s standing as the longest preseason shot to win the College Football Playoff could improbably last only two years.

The four-team playoff has trended toward the favorites ever since its inception for the 2014-15 season, so many thought it would be awhile before a team like LSU came out of nowhere to win it again. The Tigers were 50-to-1 coming into their 2018-19 championship season, but two teams could eclipse that price this year.

At BetMGM, Michigan was 66-to-1 coming into the season while Cincinnati was 150-to-1. Both teams have tall tasks ahead of them in upsetting Georgia and Alabama, respectively, to get to the championship game but they’re alive in disrupting the narrative that college football lacks parity at the highest level.

The six College Football Playoff champions aside from LSU all came into the season at single-digit odds to win the title — a group Alabama (3-to-1) and Georgia (8-to-1) would fit into.

Read below for picks on the final week of bowl games, including the College Football Playoff semifinals. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Maryland -3.5 vs. Virginia Tech, over/under: 54.5. The Hokies have lost several contributors to the NFL Draft and transfer portal, but this line has more than accounted for the absences with a 6.5-point move. Maryland shouldn’t be trusted laying this high of a price considering they’ve occasionally dipped to a level that’s been as bad as any bowl-eligible team. Lean: Virginia Tech +3.5.

Cheez-It Bowl: Iowa State +1 vs. Clemson, over/under: 44.5. Both teams will be significantly weakened, but Clemson might be better off with more of its weapons committing to the bowl game. The Tigers also improved significantly by the end of the season, winning five straight and covering in all but one. Play: Clemson -1.

Alamo Bowl: Oregon +7 vs, Oklahoma, over/under: 60.5. This could get ugly, as Oklahoma was already better than Oregon during the season and now has much more players sticking around through a coaching change. Unless there’s late news to indicate the Ducks have a fuller roster than currently being reported, the Sooners should close higher than a touchdown. Play: Oklahoma -7.

Duke’s Mayo Bowl: North Carolina -9.5 vs. South Carolina, over/under: 58.5. The Gamecocks’ roster is shorter with a handful of starters sitting out, but they showed great depth throughout the season and more than held their own against a more challenging SEC schedule. The Tar Heels should be closer to a touchdown favorite than a double-digit favorite. Lean: South Carolina +9.5.

Music City Bowl: Purdue +5.5 vs. Tennessee, over/under: 63.5. It would have been worth smashing Tennessee with bets at the sports books that bizarrely opened it as an underdog, but the line has since shifted to right where it should be. Purdue has been inconsistent but on Tennessee’s level sporadically. Guess: Purdue +5.5.

Peach Bowl: Pittsburgh +2.5 vs. Michigan State, over/under: 56. Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett isn’t playing, and he’s the only reason the Panthers would hold a large edge over the Spartans. There’s also a lot of talk on fellow Heisman candidate Kenneth Walker sitting out for the Spartans, but the impact is not comparable. Play: Michigan State -2.5.

Las Vegas Bowl: Wisconsin -6 vs. Arizona State, over/under: 42. Arizona State’s defense performed mostly well against the run and should have the personnel to match up with Wisconsin’s bruising ground game. The Sun Devils have lost several players on offense, however, so it’s probably not worth getting involved unless the number swells to +7. Guess: Arizona State +6.

Gator Bowl: Wake Forest -14.5 vs. Rutgers, over/under: 62. Rutgers played an extremely difficult schedule in the Big Ten East division, but that can’t totally explain away how poor its statistical profile looks. Factoring out garbage time, the Scarlet Knights were outgained by nearly 2 yards per play on the year. Guess: Wake Forest -14.5.

College Football Semifinal at Cotton Bowl: Cincinnati +13.5 vs. Alabama, over/under: 58.5. There’s so much talk about Cincinnati’s weak schedule, and yet its last three games came against an above-average SMU-East Carolina-Houston triumvirate. And the Bearcats won by a combined 71 points while piling up a near net 4 yard per play advantage. The Crimson Tide arguably haven’t had a stretch that dominant all year. There’s a fear to bet against Alabama in the College Football Playoff, but the Crimson Tide have gone only 4-5 against the spread all-time since its advent. They’ve usually been overvalued in big spots — and that was with teams that were far more consistent than this year’s young, relatively up-and-down squad. The Bearcats have a more veteran roster that’s worked toward this moment for two full seasons. Wait for the late money from the masses and consider betting Cincinnati +14 if it becomes available. Lean: Cincinnati +13.5.

College Football Semifinal at Orange Bowl: Georgia -7.5 vs. Michigan, over/under: 45.5. It’s no fun to lack an ironclad position on either semifinal game, but this is another wait-and-see. Georgia is almost certainly worth a bet if it gets down to -7, which seems possible with reports of Michigan taking the bulk of the action. It’s a tougher sell at anything higher given the Bulldogs’ relative lack of explosive offense. Michigan isn’t exactly high-flying though either. In a lot of ways, the Wolverines look like a lesser version of the Bulldogs. At almost any other point of the season, this line would have stretched into double digits. It’s hard to ignore the fact that taking Michigan now would mean buying high, which is typically unwise. Lean: Georgia -7.5.

Outback Bowl: Penn State -1.5 vs. Arkansas, over/under: 48. Arkansas played the toughest schedule in the nation, per the FEI ratings, and still had a better nongarbage time net yard per play figure (.69 to .33) than Penn State. The Razorbacks’ rough stretch in the middle of the season came when they were banged up, but they should be healthy with more than a month to prepare for bowl season. Lean: Arkansas +1.5.

Citrus Bowl: Iowa +3 vs. Kentucky, over/under: 44. With the numbers of times I picked against both of these teams and lost this season, I should probably refrain from doing anything with this game. Or just take the points with a key number in what should be a low-scoring game. Guess: Iowa +3.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State +2.5 vs. Notre Dame, over/under: 45.5. Number is just right based on season-long statistical profiles, but there’s some question on how Notre Dame will look under new coach Marcus Freeman. The Irish’s schedule also leaves much to be desired, as they’ve thumped seven straight opponents but none of the formidable variety. Lean: Oklahoma State +2.5.

Rose Bowl: Utah +6.5 vs. Ohio State, over/under: 66.5. The Buckeyes got upset in a couple games, but there’s not a set of power rankings around that wouldn’t have them as the second or third best team in the nation. There’s been no news of opt-outs hampering Ohio State so far, and unless that happens, it should be expected to beat any team outside of the College Football Playoff by more than a touchdown. Lean: Ohio State -6.5.

Sugar Bowl: Baylor +1 vs. Ole Miss, over/under: 55.5. These teams were about equally efficient on the year — it’s just that the Bears did it with defense and the Rebels did it with offense. Great offenses typically conquer great defenses — or at least should be enough of an advantage to lay -3. Lean: Ole Miss -1.

Texas Bowl: LSU +3.5 vs. Kansas State, over/under: 48. It’s been the same rule in the column all year: Bet on Kansas State when quarterback Skylar Thompson is playing. Not only is he playing in the final bowl game of the year, but he may not have a counterpart as there’s a lot of uncertainty on who will be under center for LSU. Play: Kansas State -3.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or