Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Who wins next year’s Super Bowl? Two bets off of the initial odds

Chiefs vs. Bucs

Associated Press

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) talks with Kansas City Chiefs strong safety Tyrann Mathieu (32) after throwing a touchdown pass during the first half of the NFL Super Bowl 55 football game Sunday, Feb. 7, 2021, in Tampa, Fla.

Super Bowl 55 proved that it’s never too early to start building a futures portfolio.

The now-champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers were available at as high as 65-to-1 to win the Super Bowl a year ago at this time. Even the Kansas City Chiefs, which Tampa Bay beat 31-9 on Sunday to win the second title in franchise history, were a good bet at 7-to-1.

Sure, Kansas City didn’t finish off its bid to win back-to-back Lombardi Trophies but, at that high of a price, it was easy to play off of the position and lock in a profit by betting Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl. Neither the Buccaneers nor the Chiefs lasted at their value prices for long, which helps illustrate the need to get down on the best numbers as soon as possible.

The hard part is finding the best numbers. Let the search begin.

Nearly every sports book in Nevada has now posted odds at Super Bowl 56, scheduled for Feb. 6, 2022, at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. Where might the early value be hidden this season?

I’ve found two suggestions below, presented alongside the full current odds to win next years’s Super Bowl at William Hill.

Chiefs — 5-to-1

Packers — +850

Bills — 10-to-1

Buccaneers — 10-to-1

Rams — 10-to-1

Seahawks — 12-to-1

Ravens — 12-to-1

49ers — 17-to-1 Few teams in the NFL are as solid across the board at every position as the 49ers. And, just as importantly, no team in the NFL was as ravaged by injuries this season as the 49ers. The latter is helping conceal the former and inflating this price beyond where it should be. San Francisco came into this past season at as low as 9-to-1 to win the Super Bowl but never really had a chance to defend its NFC title with significant injuries piling up immediately. This team held a 10-point lead in Super Bowl 54 with 7 minutes to play and that shouldn’t be considered ancient history — especially because next year’s 49ers could be even better than the 2019-2020 version. Quarterback is the only problem position and there’s a decent chance they move on from the middling Jimmy Garoppolo as they’ve been linked to several of the big names potentially changing teams including Deshaun Watson. San Francisco certainly isn’t a favorite for Watson, but neither was Tampa Bay for Tom Brady a year ago at this time. You never know, and even in the likely scenario that the 49ers miss out on upgrading at quarterback, they’ve already shown they’re good enough under coach Kyle Shanahan to reach the Super Bowl.   

Steelers — 18-to-1

Browns — 20-to-1

Saints — 20-to-1 Both these picks follow a similar script as they’re teams with stacked rosters aside from a hole at quarterback. With Drew Brees all but sure to retire, there’s a question on who will start for coach Sean Payton for the first time in more than a decade. I trust Payton to figure it out. Brees struggled for large stretches of this season and yet New Orleans still beat Tampa Bay twice, won the NFC South and finished as the league’s most efficient team by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. Some thought the Saints were better with Taysom Hill under center this season, and though I wouldn’t go that far, I sure would have liked to have seen them with fellow backup Jameis Winston at the helm. Winston is an interception problem away from being a top-10 quarterback, an interception problem Payton could conceivably help fix if he stays in New Orleans. The NFC seems more wide-open than the AFC — where the Chiefs and Ravens at minimum should be perennial contenders for years to come — so grabbing a couple mid-priced options seems prudent. From a top-to-bottom roster perspective, New Orleans and San Francisco don’t deserve to be mid-priced anyway.

Colts — 25-to-1

Titans — 30-to-1

Dolphins — 30-to-1

Cardinals — 30-to-1

Cowboys — 30-to-1

Chargers — 35-to-1

Raiders — 40-to-1

Vikings – 40-to-1

Eagles — 40-to-1

Bears — 40-to-1

Patriots — 50-to-1

Football Team — 60-to-1

Falcons — 60-to-1

Broncos — 75-to-1

Giants — 75-to-1

Panthers — 75-to-1

Jaguars — 75-to-1

Texans — 100-to-1

Bengals — 100-to-1

Lions — 125-to-1

Jets — 125-to-1

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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