Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Weekend wagers: Bets on NBA, Euro 2020, UFC 264 and more

McGregor vs Cerrone

Wade Vandervort

Conor McGregor prepares to fight Donald “Cowboy” in their welterweight bout during UFC 246 at T-Mobile Arena Saturday, Jan. 18, 2020.

Let freedom ring with a bankroll blast.

The sports calendar is trimmed slightly from the past few weekends for Fourth of July, but not completely. Not enough to keep me from firing on several sports to keep building up the bankroll.

Last week was mostly a wash — a minuscule winner ($13) isolating the 3-3 performance on six plays picked in the column but a slight loser (-$87) when accounting for France’s ouster in Euro 2020 on an existing future bet. Let’s make like dice and stick with six sides once again this week.

Read this week’s column below. Records are attached individually by sport, with the cumulative at the bottom of the page. The monetary figure is calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing a $100 wager on each pick. Any picks outside of the column will be linked and included in the record total. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time.

PGA Tour (13-8, $309.03): Troy Merritt +120 vs. Chris Kirk head-to-head in third round of Rocket Mortgage Classic (William Hill)

Merritt's game on the greens is absolutely dialed in right now, as he leads the field at Detroit Golf Club in strokes gained putting through two rounds. Many people would say that makes him a fade going forward, but I'm not so sure in this case. With the vast majority of players reaching the green in regulation at a course that's playing soft, the Rocket Mortgage should turn into somewhat of a putting contest this weekend. No one appears better suited for such a setup than Merritt. He's a far better putter than Kirk, which gives me more confidence to take the high price. They're both tied at 9-under par through 36 holes, but Kirk has picked up his biggest edge around the green. Merritt's putting prowess might be easier to maintain going forward, and it's at least worth a stab that it will happen at these odds. 

Soccer (7-6, $88.23): Denmark +110 vs. Czech Republic 90 minutes + injury time only (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

Some have called Denmark the team of destiny, but based on the way they’ve gotten to the Euro 2020 quarterfinals, perhaps the Czech Republic fit the title better. “The Locomotive” has no business being here. Despite a pair of wins in the group stage, Czech Republic was thoroughly outplayed by more advanced measures like expected goals and it continued into the first round of the knockout stage against the Netherlands. Matthijs De Light picked up a red card to pave the way to a 2-0 Czech Republic victory. Denmark is the opposite in many ways, having played better than its results have indicated even after Christian Eriksen went down. The red and white are better all across the field, and it should bear out with a trip to the semifinals on the line.   

MLB (6-5, $142.48): Oakland A’s -126 vs. Boston Red Sox (Circa)

Click to enlarge photo

The Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics stand for the national anthem at the Oakland Coliseum prior to an opening day baseball game in Oakland, Calif., in this Thursday, March 29, 2018, file photo.

This is the second or third time I’ve backed Oakland starter Cole Irvin in the column, which doesn’t sound like such a good idea on the surface but has usually worked out this season. It’s worth trying again here considering he’s up against Boston starter Garrett Richards, who was struggling enough this season before baseball’s recent crackdown on sticky stuff. Richards’ spin rate has fallen drastically since then, and the A’s should be able to take advantage by putting up quite a few runs. Maybe the Red Sox will be able to do the same against Irvin, but there’s less reason to be suspicious of the 27-year-old. Irvin may have been mediocre to start his MLB career, but he appears to have turned a corner this year. He’s having a great season, and I’ll continue to try to profit off of it.

NBA (14-10, $713.37): Milwaukee Bucks +120 money line Game 6 at Atlanta Hawks (South Point)

The Bucks are loaded with good shooters — even more so from a playing time perspective with Giannis Antetokounmpo out — and yet their shots haven’t been falling this series. It’s the biggest reason the series has stretched this long, and unlikely to continue. Milwaukee is going to break out, and it might break out here. Atlanta is more than capable of keeping up offensively, but its defense is a bigger concern. Even with Trae Young expected to play, this should be closer to a pick’em. Perhaps it would be wiser to wait for confirmation on Young, who won’t be full-strength regardless, and fire on a better number but that’s not an option for column purposes. Luckily, +120 is well good enough.

NASCAR (14-15, -$1.02): Austin Cindric +140 head-to-head vs. A.J. Allmendinger in Jockey Made In America 250 (William Hill)

This is a matchup of the two normal Xfinity drivers getting the boost up to the Cup this weekend at Road America in Elkhart Lake, Wisc., because of their reputation as strong road racers. They both could be underdog factors for different reasons. The veteran Allmendinger is probably the better driver, but Cindric will be in stronger equipment as a member of Team Penske. Put it all together, and much like the basketball game, I’d price this matchup as a near pick’em. The odds on Cindric are therefore far too high.

UFC (11-14, -$69.07): Conor McGregor Even money vs. Dustin Poirier at UFC 264 (BetMGM)

UFC has the rare off-week this weekend, but its biggest pay-per-view of the year is on deck and it’s wise to get ahead of the curve and bet into lines that won’t be available a week from now. This is unlikely to be available a week from now, as McGregor money is going to flood in as fans arrive to town. In this case, it will be justified. McGregor was a near -300 favorite over Poirier in their first two meetings. That was too high, as I was on Poirier in January at UFC 257, but now it’s swung too far the other way. One knockout win shouldn’t shift the odds this much, especially not when there’s a precedent of McGregor coming back from a loss into a rematch with more focus and conditioning. The third fight may be a little more boring, but McGregor is probably not going to let Poirier hit him as much and be prepared to drag this into the late rounds. Expect a close fight, but I’d make McGregor around a -135 favorite so there’s clear value at pick’em.  

Weekend wagers year to date: 150-145, $3,084.05

Previous pending future wagers:  Milwaukee Bucks to win NBA Finals +745; Texas 50-to-1 to win 2022 NCAA Tournament; 

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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