NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the South Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, March 16, 2021 | 2 a.m.

Note: This is part 1 of a four-part series previewing the NCAA Tournament with picks on every game. Check back every day the rest of the week for the other regions.

The South Region in this year’s NCAA Tournament certainly lives up to its name — and not for locational reasons.

The seasons of all the primary contenders in the bracket have gone south recently. It’s almost as if the selection committee got together and decided to group a bunch of sides in need of a pick-me-up.

Someone has to win and get to the Final Four, right?

A couple weeks ago No. 1 seed Baylor was undefeated and considered a practical co-favorite to win the title with Gonzaga but a 4-2 straight-up, 2-4 against the spread going into the tournament has slightly soured its perception. No. 2 seed Ohio State had similarly seen better days before ending the regular season with four straight losses both straight-up and against the spread.

The Buckeyes recovered to reach the Big Ten conference championship game, but some skepticism still exists after two of their three wins in the event came down to the final minute and another went to overtime.

No. 5 seed Villanova got as low as the fourth favorite to win the tournament in the futures market but an injury to its best player, point guard Collin Gillespie, saw the Wildcats tumble down the standings and betting board. A similar drop has befallen No. 6 seed Texas Tech, which got as low as 16-to-1 to win the title last month but now sits at 60-to-1 after losing five of its last eight games.

No. 3 seed Arkansas and No. 4 seed Purdue are the two that don’t fit so neatly thematically, though both did bow out of their respective conference tournaments early after late regular-season runs. The Razorbacks fell in the SEC Tournament semifinals as 4-point favorites to LSU while Purdue closed as short as a pick’em to Ohio State before losing in overtime of the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals.

Not a single team seeded higher than No. 12 in the South won its conference tournament as Baylor was one-and-done in the Big 12 bracket with a loss to Oklahoma State.

Someone’s going to bounce back in the NCAA Tournament. That's the beauty of this bracket.

Read below for picks on every first-round game in the South region, separated into three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

No. 4 seed Purdue -8 vs. No. 13 seed North Texas, over/under: 127. Excluding First Four games, this is the lowest total on the board. That’s all the better for the underdog with fewer possessions making it harder for the Boilermakers to separate themselves. The Mean Green are going to hoist up a lot of 3s, and if they fall, they have a chance to pull off the first big upset of the tournament. There’s a good chance they fall considering North Texas is 34^th in the nation in shooting 34% from beyond the arc. North Texas is also guard-heavy and experienced, fitting the preferred potential Cinderella profile. Play: North Texas +8.

No. 8 seed North Carolina -1.5 vs. No. 9 seed Wisconsin, over/under: 139.5. The Badgers seem to make a near-annual run in the tournament by virtue of their shrewd, fundamental playing style under coach Greg Gard, and previously his mentor, Bo Ryan. The Tar Heels seem to make a near-annual run in the tournament because they have a collection of the best players. Well, this year, North Carolina doesn’t have the caliber of players it normally has but Wisconsin is utilizing the same approach as always. Recency bias, i.e. Wisconsin’s bad luck in close games and North Carolina somewhat getting it together, is the biggest reason the Tar Heels are favored here. Play: Wisconsin +1.5.

No. 3 seed Arkansas -9 vs. No. 14 seed Colgate, over/under: 162.5. Colgate is so incredibly smooth offensively, a team full of crisp passers and sharp shooters. If the Raiders had gotten matched up with a sloppier defensive team, they would have had a great shot at the first tournament win in school history. But Arkansas is not a sloppy defensive team. The Razorbacks thrive on the defensive end, ranking 14^th in defensive efficiency per kenpom.com, and won’t give up the quick, open looks the Raider have become accustomed to. Still, Colgate is an awfully tricky No. 14 seed considering it's only suffered one defeat this year and that was by two points in its second game of the season when it went cold against Army. That makes Arkansas the rare team who wouldn’t be a surprise to either see in the Final Four or witness lose in the first round. Play: Colgate +9.

No. 2 seed Ohio State -16.5 vs. No. 15 seed Oral Roberts, over/under: 156.5. This is the polar opposite of the Purdue vs. North Texas matchup. It’s the second highest total on the board. Oral Roberts is going to push the pace, and that should play right into Ohio State’s hands. The Buckeyes have one of the best offenses in the nation and score too efficiently to hand extra possessions. The Golden Eagles aren’t bad but don’t seem built to attack the Buckeyes’ weaknesses. Lean: Ohio State -16.5.

No. 6 seed Texas Tech -4.5 vs. No. 11 seed Utah State, over/under: 131.5. Stock on Texas Tech is down after it ended the year relatively rough, with two straight losses and a 3-4 record in its last seven. But the Big 12 was tough, arguably as tough as any conference in the nation. Utah State wouldn’t have fared any better, though it has the best player between these two teams in 7-footer Neemias Qeta. Texas Tech coach Chris Beard, a noted tactician, has extra time to devise a plan for his team to play around Qeta, though. Buy low on the Red Raiders as this line should close higher. Lean: Texas Tech -4.5.

No. 5 seed Villanova -6.5 vs. No. 12 seed Winthrop, over/under: 141.5. Tread lightly here. A couple weeks ago, Villanova would have been a 10.5- or 11-point favorite before it lost Gillespie for the season. Is Gillespie worth four or five points? It’s possible, but that’s an awful lot. Not expecting the Wildcats to be able to function without him in the tournament even though they’ve lost two straight feels presumptuous with how well-coached they are under Jay Wright. And to further complicate matters, Winthrop is the type of experienced, sound team that projects well for a first-round upset. It’s just too bad the Eagles aren’t available at a better price as this line has even trimmed an extra point since opening at 7.5. Guess: Winthrop +6.5.

No. 7 seed Florida pick’em vs. No. 10 seed Virginia Tech, over/under: 137. These are two middling teams from power conferences with limited ceilings. They’re equal parts unremarkable and solid, meaning this could truly go either way. Virginia Tech has probably been the more impressive team on the year — at least recently — but Florida had higher expectations and better talent. The Gators’ Tre Mann should be the best player on the floor. Guess: Florida pick’em.

No. 1 seed Baylor -26 vs. No. 16 seed Hartford, over/under 140.5. No. 1 vs. No. 16 seed games are typically among the least-bet of the first round, and maybe this one will ultimately follow that trend, but it hasn’t so far. It was interestingly the most bet-on game of the tournament at Circa Sports as of Monday morning. Who knows why. This is a familiar tale of a longshot that might be able to sneak inside the number because of its plodding pace but should ultimately be undone by an athletic mismatch. Guess: Baylor -26.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.