NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the West Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Friday, March 19, 2021 | 2 a.m.

Updated Friday, March 19, 2021 | 9:35 a.m.

Note: This is part 4 of a four-part series previewing the NCAA Tournament with picks on every game. Check out part 1 here, part 2 here and part 3 here.

Gonzaga sits as a borderline historic favorite in overall tournament futures, so naturally that extends to its odds to reach the Final Four by winning the East Region.

In Circa Sports yes/no futures market, Gonzaga is listed at -190 (risking $1.90 to win $1) on the “yes” to win the East with the “no” coming back at +150 (risking $1 to win $1.50). That implies around a 63 percent chance the Bulldogs reaches the national semifinals for the second time in school history.

That sounds about right, if not a tad low, considering the perception of the rest of the Bulldogs’ initial bracket. The East has regularly been called the weakest region, and while that may ultimately check out from a power-rating perspective, it might be closer than advertised.

There are some landmines here for Gonzaga to navigate. If the bracket holds to form, they’d have to beat an Oklahoma team that was considered a championship contender a couple months ago, the most recent national champions in Virginia and an Iowa side led by likely National Player of the Year Luka Garza.

Gonzaga would be sizable favorites in each of those games, and will be sizable favorites in every game they play regardless, but that doesn’t mean everything. This is March Madness, after all, and upsets are inevitable.

The Bulldogs just must avoid falling into one in the East Region, or risk being remembered as the ultimate chokers. Conventional wisdom is they should waltz through this set of teams, and on the surface, it mostly checks out.

Read below for picks on every first-round game in the West Region, separated into three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Check back after Thursday’s First Four games for updated picks.

No. 6 seed USC -6.5 vs. No. 11 seed Drake, over/under: 136.5. Drake’s 53-52 win over Wichita State in a First Four game on Thursday was as sloppy as it gets, which appears to have overly influenced this line. It’s at least a half-point too high based on the full season’s worth of data. Yes, Drake may struggle with USC’s athleticism. But USC should struggle with Drake’s deliberate, well-executed offensive sets. The Bulldogs opened the game pretty rough against the Shockers but played better than they’re being given credit in erasing a 12-point deficit in the final 11 minutes and holding on for the win. They should come out more comfortable against the Trojans. Play: Drake +6.5.

No. 7 seed Oregon -5.5 vs. No. 10 seed Virginia Commonwealth, over/under: 137.5. After a season full of injuries and interruptions, Oregon finally appears to be at full strength and capable of big things. The Ducks fit with so many factors anyone looks for going into the tournament: They’re experienced, explosive and peaking. Problem is, everyone knows it. Backing them, at least here, requires paying a premium. A big one. Oregon should beat VCU but there’s not much to suggest that it should do so comfortably. The Rams’ defense will harass the Ducks, which are prone to turnovers. Oregon meanwhile will have its hands full with Bones Hyland, a skilled scorer who should be able to cut through a mediocre defense. VCU is a surefire play at 6, but with not much to like in this region, I’ll stretch it and take a half-point worse in what should be a close Oregon win. Play: VCU +5.5.

No. 5 seed Creighton -7 vs. No. 12 UC-Santa Barbara, over/under: 138. It’s too bad these two teams are playing each other. Powered by efficient offenses and coming out of underrated conferences, they both look like buy-on teams. Well, that is, if you don’t think Creighton has quit on coach Greg McDermott after his offensive comments in a postgame speech that resulted a one-game suspension. Some are convinced that is the case, which helped cause this line to get as low as 5.5 after opening at 8. The Blue Jays were the clear side at 5.5 or 6, but there’s been some buyback since. Now the number is back closer to where it should be, but Creighton still has clear advantages in shooting and defense. Narratives can become widespread enough to unduly influence NCAA Tournament lines, and this might be one case where it’s happening — albeit only slightly now that the line is drifting back into place. Lean: Creighton -7.

No. 3 seed Kansas -10.5 vs. No. 14 seed Eastern Washington, over/under: 143.5. This year’s Kansas team is not strong for the program’s standards, but its defense is a sight to behold. It should stifle Eastern Washington, which grades out as solid but not outstanding across the board. Positive coronavirus tests that forced Kansas out of the Big 12 Conference Tournament don’t appear to be much of a factor considering the Jayhawks are in the bubble and practicing. They’ll be without Jalen Wilson but David McCormack is expected to play. That’s another nugget of positive news as Kansas relies on McCormack significantly more out of the two starting big men. Kansas had won three straight and eight of nine before prematurely exiting the conference tournament and were playing better than it had been all season. Lean: Kansas -10.5.

No. 2 seed Iowa -14.5 vs. No. 15 seed Grand Canyon, over/under: 145. Iowa feels like the anti-Oregon — a team everyone seemingly wants to fade after a relatively rough end to the season and a couple current, nagging injuries. It’s curious in the sense that the Hawkeyes hold the profile of a side the betting public would typically love. Unlike some of their Big Ten brethren, and perhaps its own misguided program reputation, Iowa is all offense. Luka Garza and Joe Wieskamp, who played in the Big Ten Conference Tournament on a bad ankle, pour in points and eventually overwhelm with their scoring ability. Grand Canyon just might be overwhelmed. The Antelopes are young and not particularly good defensively, where they struggle to create turnovers. If Iowa dictates the pace of this game, and Iowa will at least try to dictate the pace of this game, then it could get out of hand. Guess: Iowa -14.5.

No. 1 seed Gonzaga -33 vs. No. 16 seed Norfolk State, over/under: 154.5. Norfolk State has ridden a 3-point shooting heater through the end of the season, the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Tournament and its First Four game to reach this point. The problem with heaters is they eventually flame out. The Spartans finally cooled off in the second half against Appalachian State on Thursday, barely eking out a 54-53 win, and chances are it continues against Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are too long and athletic to give the Spartans many open shots. Gonzaga -19.5 in the first half might be worth a look because the overall No. 1 seed will surely allow its starters to play that long. Coach Mark Few may start pulling players early in the second half, so a backdoor cover is a possibility but this line isn’t outrageous. Gonzaga is just this much better than Norfolk State. Guess: Gonzaga -33.

No. 4 seed Virginia -7 vs. No. 13 seed Ohio, over/under: 131. Never before has an ACC regular-season champion and (de facto) defending national champion ever been doubted more than Virginia is this year. And the skepticism around the Hoos started long before their recent coronavirus outbreak that caused them to pull out of the ACC Tournament. The positive test that forced Virginia into quarantine is a concern, especially since it now won’t arrive in Indianapolis until Friday and will only practice once before playing the Bobcats. It’s tough to quantify just how much of an effect all the disruption will have, but the market is estimating it’s significant considering this line opened at 10.5. That feels like too much considering the infrastructure in place at Virginia under one of the nation’s best coaches in Tony Bennett. Ohio is well-coached and talented too, but young and probably a year off from a chance at a real tournament run. Guess: Virginia -7.

No. 8 seed Oklahoma -1 vs. No. 9 seed Missouri, over/under: 139. This is as tough as any game on the board and I’ve flip-flopped my pick multiple times. Oklahoma has the higher potential – as seen in its aforementioned midseason run — but also perhaps the lower floor considering its lost four of its last five. All of the games were close, though. Missouri’s not exactly arriving to the big dance in glistening fashion either having gone 2-3 straight-up, 1-4 against the spread in its last five games. Oklahoma’s Austin Reaves should be the best player on the floor, which also makes a difference. Missouri might have been the take at the opening price of +2, but this is so close that Oklahoma is preferable as the line trends towards a pick’em. Guess: Oklahoma -1.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.