NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Monday’s Elite 8

By Case Keefer (contact)

Monday, March 29, 2021 | 2 a.m.

Two longshots have a chance to reach the Final Four on the first day of the Elite 8.

Sure, some may argue Arkansas doesn’t qualify because of its No. 3 seed, but from a betting standpoint, it was never supposed to make it this far. The Razorbacks were as high as 11-to-1 to win the South Region — behind teams with higher seeds like Purdue and Texas Tech at several sports books — coming into the tournament.

No one can dispute Oregon State’s credentials as regional-final crashers. The Beavers have needed to pull off three straight upsets — all as more than 6-point underdogs — to reach the Midwest Region final with a shot to pay off tickets as high as 40-to-1 to reach the Final Four.

They’ve each got big-time opponents in front of them — Baylor and Houston, respectively — but they’ve already overcome the odds before to make it this far.

Read my handicap on the two games below, labeled in one of three confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

No. 2 seed Houston -7.5 vs. No. 12 seed Oregon State, over/under: 130. Oregon State has gone on a postseason run for the ages by emphasizing defense, slowing games down and leaning on a smart, experienced roster. Now, for arguably the first time since the end of a regular season, the Beavers are playing an opponent that has all those same attributes, only amplified. Houston is not the most fun team to watch but it just might be the most effective team — at least on this side of the bracket. The Cougars are physical, great rebounders and led by a do-everything point guard in Quentin Grimes. All of that is going to give the Beavers trouble. Oregon State has been terrific in winning six straight for a stretch that will never be forgotten, but at least in the NCAA Tournament, it’s also gotten some favorable matchups to help maximize its potential. Houston is not a favorable matchup. Play: Houston -7.5.

No. 1 seed Baylor -6.5 vs. No. 3 seed Arkansas, over/under: 149. As a proud owner of one of the aforementioned 11-to-1 Arkansas regional tickets, it pains me to write I don’t see a very strong path to the Razorbacks winning this game. Baylor has too much firepower in the backcourt for Arkansas to contain. The Razorbacks have been great defensively in most areas but one aspect where they’ve been merely decent is guarding the 3-point line ­— and no one shoots better from the 3-point line than the Bears. When I picked and bet Arkansas to win the region, it was because I hoped another team would oust Baylor before this prospective matchup. Wisconsin, Villanova and Purdue all seemed  to play a style that could take Baylor out of its comfort zone. The latter two did for a while but it didn’t stick. Baylor seems to have regained the form that saw it win 18 straight to start the season and shed some of the bad habits that doomed it to a 3-2 record in its last five games before the tournament. There’s no pressure on Arkansas now and it’s still a better team than many realize so it may hang close and even cover a big number — especially if it keeps rising, Arkansas would even be the pick at +8 – but Baylor is a level above. Guess: Baylor -6.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.