NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Tuesday’s Elite 8

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, March 30, 2021 | 2 a.m.

Gonzaga and Michigan sat atop the college basketball world coming into March with some fans regarding an eventual national championship matchup as a likely event.

On Feb. 27, Gonzaga finished off its undefeated regular season while Michigan won its seventh straight Big Ten conference game. The latter surpassed Baylor, which lost its first game of the season on the same day, in the polls as a result of the victory to give college basketball its big two heading into the postseason.

It hasn’t been all smooth for Michigan since, as it’s lost three times and worked through some injuries, but the showdown with Gonzaga might happen anyway — just a round before it was anticipated. Current betting lines imply about a 59 percent chance that Gonzaga and Michigan eliminate USC and UCLA today, respectively, to face each other in the Final Four on Saturday.

Do I see the long-awaited matchup as an inevitably? Not quite.

Read the breakdown of today’s pair of Elite 8 games below with picks labeled in one of three confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

No. 1 seed Gonzaga -9.5 vs. No. 6 seed USC, over/under: 153.5. Betting against Gonzaga has been akin to lighting money on fire, and yet there’s no way around it here. I wrote coming into the tournament that the Bulldogs should be favored by at least 6 points against every team. That remains true, but the jump from 6 to 9.5 is significant. And there’s a case to be made that USC has been the second-best team in the tournament. The Trojans are 3-0 against the spread covering by 17.5 points per game for crissakes. USC probably doesn’t deserve to be rated above Baylor, Houston or Michigan but it’s close. As the team with the most height in the tournament, per kenpom.com, and the best pro prospect, Evan Mobley, USC can give anyone trouble including Gonzaga. This might be the one spot of the tournament where the Zags encounter some adversity. I’ve already got significant exposure on Gonzaga, so this is also an unintended way to manage that liability. Hedging futures bets are always tricky, but a no-brainer if you’re getting value on the other side and can cash both bets. This situation qualifies, as I make Gonzaga closer to an 8-point favorite. Play: USC +9.5.

No. 1 seed Michigan -7.5 vs. No. 11 seed UCLA, over/under: 136. Michigan’s power rating had taken a hit in each of the last four games since the Wolverines lost Isaiah Livers in their first Big Ten conference tournament game. The market seemed to quantify Livers’ impact efficiently considering Michigan went 2-2 against the spread and overall played pretty close to its expectation. But now it’s as if Livers’ injury never happened. Michigan is getting the same price boost it got late in the regular season when it was playing as well as any team in the nation. That should backfire against UCLA, a team that’s finally reaching its peak and showing the potential that made it the preseason Pac-12 favorite. Michigan coach Juwan Howard continues to impress and appears a step above the competition, but from a player standpoint, the Wolverines and Bruins are increasingly evenly-matched. They both also prefer to run halfcourt sets meaning this is likely a low-scoring affair. This is too many points for a low-scoring affair. Play: UCLA +7.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.