Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Weekend wagers: Bets on PGA Championship, NBA, NHL playoffs and more

Damian Lillard

Craig Mitchelldyer / Associated Press

Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard reacts after scoring his 50th point of the night, during the second half of the team’s NBA basketball game against the Brooklyn Nets in Portland, Ore., Friday, Nov. 8, 2019.

NBA and NHL playoffs. A golf major. A UFC fight card strewn with evenly matched pairings.

The sports calendar rarely gets more jampacked than it looks this weekend. The betting opportunities are equally ample, so let’s dive right in and find wagers on anything and everything.

I finally broke the column’s slump last week, albeit barely with a 4-3 record and profit of $49.42 assuming the standard $100 bet on every play. The grading of NBA and NHL win totals, division futures and playoff yes/nos also helped give a bigger boost to the bottom line, as I went 5-0 in NBA plays for an $800.79 profit and 7-6 in the NHL for a $700 profit.

Read this week’s column below. Records are attached individually by sport, with the cumulative at the bottom of the page. The monetary figure is calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing a $100 wager on each pick. Any picks outside of the column will be linked and included in the record total. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time.

PGA Tour (11-6-2, $335.11): Daniel Berger -110 head-to-head in third round of PGA Championship vs. Patrick Reed (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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Daniel Berger hits out of the rough during the PGA Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Friday, October 4, 2019, at TPC Summerlin.

Daniel Berger checked every box coming into the week at Kiawah Island — he was in good form, had his irons dialed in and looked like a match with The Ocean Course — but then he proceeded to blow up with a 7-over par first round. That’s thrown his numbers out of whack going forward. Despite being one stroke behind Reed, Berger is playing better. He’s leading the former Masters champion in both strokes gained approach and off the tee. Berger tied with Phil Mickelson for the second-best score of the second round on Saturday, 3-under par. That performance is more likely to carry over than his sky-high first-round, which was the result of some poor putting and chipping to start the round. This is mispriced as a pick’em.

MLB (4-2, $199.16): Minnesota Twins +161 vs. Cleveland Indians (SuperBook)

Sitting a half-game away from holding the league’s worst record going into Friday, the Twins must get things turned around. The good news is they should get things turned around. A lot of their misfortune seems to be variance that should start to swing the other way at some point and help them creep towards .500. Minnesota’s lineup is too strong and hits the ball too hard to not start overpowering opponents at some point. They should even be able to do it here against a divisional rival’s best pitcher. Cleveland’s Shane Bieber is hard to bet against, but Minnesota has a competent match on the mound in Kenta Maeda. Yes, Maeda has started the year rough, but like his team, shouldn’t stay down. He has too much good stuff. It’s time to buy on Maeda and the Twins.

UFC (10-10, $292.47): Edmen Shahbazyan +130 vs. Jack Hermansson (Station Sports)

No sport turns on a competitor quicker after one loss than mixed martial arts. Some were predicting the 23-year-old Shahbazyan would become the youngest UFC champion in history before his 11-0 record was marred for the first time in an upset loss to Derek Brunson last summer. He was a -340 favorite going into that fight, which makes his price tag against a comparable level of opponent this weekend hard to believe. Shahbazyan is far from a guaranteed winner, but he has a path to success here. His striking should bother the 32-year-old Hermansson, who has an edge on the ground. He may not be championship caliber yet, but one loss doesn’t mean Shabazyan has the potential to reach the top of the middleweight division.

NASCAR (12-11, $212.06): Martin Truex Jr. +155 head-to-head vs. Chase Elliott in COTA Cup Race (William Hill)

Chase Elliott is the consensus favorite for this weekend’s race at the Circuit of Americas track in Austin and widely considered the best road racer in NASCAR but should he be? Arguably not. Truex has proven to be just as strong on road courses and has arguably been the best driver in NASCAR all year. He already has three wins this season and might be moving to four on Sunday. At the very least, he should be considered on par with Elliott — not a major underdog.

NHL (16-13, $821.79): Toronto Maple Leafs -120 adjusted series price vs. Montreal Canadiens (Circa Sports)

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Montreal Canadiens goaltender Jake Allen (34) makes a save as Toronto Maple Leafs forward Ilya Mikheyev (65) looks for the rebound during the second period of an NHL hockey game Saturday, May 8, 2021, in Toronto.

Buy the dip, and that doesn’t mean cryptocurrency. Toronto was verging on a -400 favorite going into its postseason series against Montreal but has seen that price plummet after losing Game 1 3-2 on Thursday. More impactful than the loss itself was the horrific injury to the team’s captain and second-best player, John Tavares, who suffered a terrifying-looking concussion and is now out indefinitely. His absence improves Montreal’s chances significantly, but not this significantly. Toronto still has the better roster, one that should break the franchise’s 17-year drought without a playoff series win.

NBA (10-7, $564.42): Portland Trail Blazers -115 series price vs. Denver Nuggets (Boyd Gaming)

I’ll often write about bets in this column going against recency bias, but here’s one spot where I think recency isn’t being valued enough. Portland has been one of the best teams in the league since it’s gotten fully healthy with Jusuf Nurkic specifically making a world of difference and continuing a run as one of the league’s most underrated players. Nurkic’s former team and now opponent, Denver, is on the opposite end. It’s seen a dip in efficiency since losing Jamal Murray for the season. This is an off-market price with most sports books offering Portland as a -130 favorite. That’s closer, but still a little short. I’d play the surging Trail Blazers in the series at any price below -150.

Previous pending future wagers: Brooklyn Nets to win NBA Finals +505; Milwaukee Bucks to win NBA Finals +745; Texas to win NCAA Tournament at 50-to-1; All preseason NHL bets

Weekend wagers betting column year to date: 137-127-1, $3,688.54

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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