Saturday, Nov. 13, 2021 | 12:15 p.m.
The win streak is over, and in a way, it feels like a relief.
Sunday Sweats had been profitable for five straight weeks before last week’s 2-4 downturn for a $237.93 loss. Now it should be easier to get back to basics, ignore the bigger picture and focus on finding the best value all over the board.
I’ve still got another streak going anyway, though you’ll have to scroll down and look at the records to figure out what that’s in reference to. I’d also caution to prepare for a Dallas Cowboy-heavy column this week.
I traditionally try to give some variety in the games used in the Sunday Sweats, but a lot stood out with the Cowboys this week.
Read below for this week’s bets in five different categories as part of the Sunday Sweats column. Bets placed outside of the college and pro football pick’ems, including a weekly prop on the Raiders’ game that runs Sunday, will be tracked (and linked when possible) here.
Tasty Total (5-4, $50.59): Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers under 50.5 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
What’s the over/under on times this broadcast mentions “football weather”? It probably needs to be set at 1.5. The weather forecast is calling for temperatures just above freezing, snow, and most importantly, winds approaching 20 miles per hour. The elements should be just enough to limit these offenses that, combined with improving defenses on both sides, might not produce up to their usual standard in the first place. The totals market is tough this week as I haven’t made any other plays, but this number should be a couple points lower.
Two-team Teaser (10-0, $833.30): Dallas Cowboys -2 & Pittsburgh Steelers -2 -120 (William Hill)
About half the games on the slate Sunday fall into tease-able territory. Choose carefully. Wong teasers have performed exceptionally well this season — just look at the record in this category for some proof — but they’re far from infallible as the Ravens’ 22-10 loss to the Dolphins as closing 8.5-point favorites on Thursday Night Football showed. Cleveland +8.5, Philadelphia +7.5 and Las Vegas +8.5 all are also enticing choices this week, but I chose to go with both the favorites. The Pittsburgh-Detroit game should be low-scoring, which makes moving through the 3 and 7 all the more valuable. The Lions also seem to be getting too much love for the market when this line should arguably be trending more towards 10. The Cowboys are also a bigger mismatch for the Falcons than the identical -8 line currently indicates.
Moneyline Parlay (4-5, $518.74): Dallas Cowboys & San Francisco 49ers +249 (South Point)
Not only are the Cowboys short on the spread; they’re short on the moneyline too — and South Point has the best moneyline price in town. Their win probability is better than the 77% this -360 price implies against an overachieving Atlanta team. The Falcons are one of the most inefficient teams in the NFL with an underlying statistical profile that says they should fall off from their current 4-4 record. The 49ers are just the opposite, as they should start getting some of the breaks that have gone against them so far the rest of the reason. And South Point also has the best price on them to win outright at +175. The Saints over the Titans felt like a lock to wind up in this category earlier in the week, and there’s probably still value on them at better than +125, but Alvin Kamara being ruled out has scared me off. So I’ll stick with the type of two-teamer that has paid dividends all season.
Player Prop (7-11, -$470.77): CeeDee Lamb over 73.5 receiving yards -113 (Boyd Sports)
Atlanta rates 28th in the NFL against No. 1 receivers by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. Want to argue Lamb is actually the Cowboys’ No. 2 behind Amari Cooper? Even better. Atlanta is 31st in that category. Bottom line, the Falcons struggle against wide receivers. Lamb should have a big game in a bounce back from his worst outing of the season, a two-catch, 23-yard performance in a 30-16 loss to the Broncos last week. A buy-low spot on one of the most skilled receivers in the league against one of the worst pass defenses? Yes, please. Remember, another prop play is coming in Sunday's Raider preview section.
Non-football Play (4-5, -$69.09): Pittsburgh Penguins +145 at Washington Capitals (Boyd Sports)
Yes, Pittsburgh is playing a back-to-back but Washington’s schedule spot isn’t much better. This will be the Capitals’ third game in four nights. The Penguins are still banged-up and may not look as strong as the Capitals in terms of win-loss record and other conventional measures, but their advanced numbers are the stronger of the two sides. Pittsburgh is fourth in the NHL with a 55.25 expected goal percentage at even strength. I would be tempted to play the Penguins down to +125, meaning there’s a great deal of value at the current price.
Sunday Sweats year to date: 30-25, $862.77
Weekend betting column all-time: 205-186, $5,611.94
Previous pending wagers: Texas over 8.5 wins +110; Los Angeles Chargers under 9.5 wins -125; Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East +150; Georgia 10-to-1 to win College Football Playoff; Baltimore Ravens 20-to-1 to win Super Bowl; Jon Rahm 12-to-1 to win 2022 Masters; Texas 50-to-1 to win 2022 NCAA Tournament.