Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Sunday Sweats: Five bets to add to your NFL Week 12 card

Lamar Jackson

Julio Cortez / Associated Press

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson scores a touchdown in the second half of an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Sept. 19, 2021, in Baltimore.

The house feasted on Thanksgiving largely by virtue of all three road teams winning outright.

The holiday slate didn’t adversely affect Talking Points ­— the pick’em went 2-1 against the spread in the three games — but the damage was already done. Last weekend’s Sunday Sweats, combined with a couple other proposition losses in a pair of Raiders’ gameday sections, has cut profits for the year nearly in half.

It wouldn’t be a football season without adversity, though, and the rest of the Week 12 slate tomorrow is where I’ll start to fight through it.

Read below for this week’s bets in five different categories as part of the Sunday Sweats column. Bets placed outside of the college and pro football pick’ems, including a weekly prop on the Raiders’ game that runs Sunday, will be tracked here.

Tatsy Total (6-5, $41.50): Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos over 47 (Circa Sports)

Neither the Chargers’ defense nor the Broncos’ defense has lived up to expectations this season. It hasn’t really translated to the totals market considering these teams have combined to go under in 14 of their collective 20 games this season, but there’s still time. The forecast is clear today in Denver and the home team is coming out of a bye, minimizing potential reasons why both teams’ offenses might not at their best. Some bettors don’t like taking overs in divisional games, especially at this point of the season, but that isn’t much of a concern here considering the lack of history in this particular matchup. This is the first meeting between the teams with Chargers coach Brandon Staley at the helm, and he’s radically changed everything including the offensive philosophy.

Two-team Teaser (10-2, $633.30): Miami Dolphins +8.5 & Pittsburgh Steelers +10 -120 (William Hill)

Going through the 3 and the 7 in a low-scoring, evenly-matched type of game, the Dolphins are a shoo-in in any 6-point teaser for Sunday. There are a couple of other obvious traditional choices, taking the Jets from 2.5 to 8.5 and the Packers from 1.5 to 7.5, but I’m not particularly confident in either. The Packers’ game could easily turn out high-scoring and then minimize the value of the extra points, while the Jets are, well, the Jets and should never be trusted. If the Steelers could get through the 10 instead of just on the 10, then this would be a terrific teaser. But, as it stands, it still might be the best choice.

Moneyline Parlay (5-6, $667.74): Patriots, Buccaneers & Jaguars +366 (William Hill)

Have the Seahawks ruined all six losses in this category? Sure feels like it, after another 3-for-4 last week where Seattle’s pitiful performance against Arizona was the only loss. So the Seahawks are on probation for the week, even though their Even money price at Washington is tempting, and let’s go for a three-teamer. William Hill has the best prices on all three of these sides. New England (-300) should be higher based on Tennessee’s injury situation. Tampa Bay (-170) is only slim value but should close higher at Indianapolis. Jacksonville (+120) is the best current moneyline price on the board by my numbers. Sigh, as if trusting the Jaguars is any better than trusting the Seahawks.

Player Prop (9-14, -$591.36): Lamar Jackson over 63.5 rushing yards -114 (Boyd Sports)

The Browns’ defense continues to get too much credit from the betting market despite having struggled all season. That includes against the run where Cleveland rates 17th in the NFL by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. And there’s no question as to the identity of Baltimore’s top rushing option. It’s still Jackson, who should be out to make up for lost time after missing last week’s game against Chicago. This is a big game in the AFC North race, and both teams will do all they can to be at their best. And the Ravens are at their best when their quarterback is constantly looking for ways to run.

Click to enlarge photo

Vegas Golden Knights right wing Mark Stone, right, warms up before Game 2 of a Stanley Cup playoff series against the Minnesota Wild at T-Mobile Arena Tuesday, May 18, 2021.

Non-football play (5-6, -$85.76): Vegas Golden Knights -124 vs. Edmonton Oilers (Circa Sports)

I typically try limit picks to Sunday's action for this column, but it’s a big game tonight in Las Vegas and there’s value on the home team. As much as it pains me to say with futures positions on them in virtually every market, Edmonton’s efficiency has really slipped over the last month — certainly since they were +112 underdogs at T-Mobile Arena ahead of a 5-3 win on Oct 22. The Oilers have still been better than the Golden Knights, but that doesn’t mean much here considering how much healthier the latter has gotten over the last week. With a near full complement of players, this price on Vegas isn’t big enough. The Golden Knights should be laying something like -140.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 35-33, $665.42

Weekend betting column all-time: 210-195, $5,314.59

Previous pending wagers: Los Angeles Chargers under 9.5 wins -125; Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East +150; Georgia 10-to-1 to win College Football Playoff; Baltimore Ravens 20-to-1 to win Super Bowl; Jon Rahm 12-to-1 to win 2022 Masters; Texas 50-to-1 to win 2022 NCAA Tournament.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or

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