College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of every midweek game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Sept. 1, 2021 | 2 a.m.

I thought about quitting, at least considered scaling back. Couldn’t do it.

For the fourth consecutive year, I’ll pick every widely lined (all Football Bowl Subdivision) college football game as part of Talking Points’ weekly betting coverage starting now. The format will undergo a minor change, in an effort to conserve time, as I won’t be writing explanations for every game.

Each week, I’ll cover the biggest games and my strongest positions while listing the rest of the selections at the bottom of the column. My hope is that the write-ups provide insight into my process — developing a consistent process is the most important thing in handicapping — and hint how I arrived at the rest of the picks.

Everything else will stay the same. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses.

Last year went either mediocre or poorly depending on how you look at it. My overall record of 231-247-5 was regrettable, though that mostly was the result of bad picks in the guesses category (122-141-3). The plays ended up 46-43-2 and the leans went 63-63.

I was profitable in each of the two previous seasons, and my hope is to get back there in 2021. Let’s get it started and give a taste of the new column setup by handicapping the 10 pre-Saturday games now.

Find picks for all of the Thursday and Friday games below, and come back Friday for all of Saturday's games.

Big Games

Ohio State -14 at Minnesota, over/under: 63.5. Can Minnesota stop anyone on defense? The Gophers couldn’t last year, and that doomed them to a major fall from 11-2 in 2019 to 3-4 in 2020. If they can bounce back to being even competent on that side of the ball, then the heights of 2019 aren’t as far away as the market implies. Minnesota has a lot more players back than Ohio State, including quarterback Tanner Morgan and running back Mohamed Ibrahim, so there’s a case to be made that it could be sharper out of the gate even at a talent disadvantage. Lean: Minnesota +14.

North Carolina +5.5 at Virginia Tech, over/under: 64. All summer, pundits have heaped praise on the Tar Heels and trashed the Hokies. All the talk gave me a false hope that this number may eventually reach 7. But it’s stuck right about where I think it should be and hasn’t shown any signs of even getting to 6, let alone 7. Virginia Tech may still be live if its young defense can quickly realize its potential. I don’t think North Carolina’s offense is quite the wrecking ball it’s been declared, not with quarterback Sam Howell losing a number of targets off last year’s team. It’s just difficult to back Virginia Tech with any sort of confidence unless the line jumps up to a key number. Lean: Virginia Tech +5.5.

Big Plays

Boise State +5 at UCF, over/under: 68.5. Well, this probably could be in the Big Games section as well but I left it off because I’ve already analyzed the matchup. UCF was a 3.5-point favorite when I locked in a wager a couple weeks ago, but the jump to 5 isn’t prohibitive. The Knights are loaded with talent, even for their increasingly high standards, in coach Gus Malzahn’s first year and quarterback Dillon Gabriel should be able to pour on the points against a relatively unproven Broncos’ secondary. Play: UCF -5.

East Carolina +10 at Appalachian State, over/under: 57.5. This is part two of my already-spoiled picks. My confidence for this showdown of North Carolina schools is slightly dwindling, though, without the market moving in my way. Most books are at 10.5, but Circa Sports has stubbornly stayed on 10. When a book like Circa that caters to sharp action is off the consensus price, it can sometimes be a warning sign. East Carolina may also have a coaching advantage, but I’m banking on it not being enough to make up for a massive gap in talent. Appalachian State -12.5 is my number, and I’m choosing to trust it. Play: Appalachian State -10.

Michigan State +3.5. at Northwestern, over/under: 45. While almost every non-powerhouse program in the nation brings back a mountain of returners because of the NCAA’s decision not to count last year towards eligibility restrictions, Northwestern is in the opposite camp. The Wildcats are rebuilding on the fly, ranking dead-last in returning production per Bill Connelly’s numbers. They outperformed their statistical profile last year to win the Big Ten West and might have been due some regression anyway. Michigan State has more looking up now that second-year coach Mel Tucker has gotten time to settle in and implement his systems. The Spartans win outright. Play: Michigan State +3.5.

Other Picks

Play: Temple +14.5 at Rutgers

Lean: Charlotte +6.5 vs. Duke

Lean: Tennessee -35 vs. Bowling Green

Lean: Wake Forest -31 vs. Old Dominion

Lean: South Florida +18.5 at North Carolina State

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.